Sunday, July 18, 2021

The crabbed little view of climate from Worcestershire

Something called the "environment manager" from Worcestershire has circulated these charts on Twitter, as if they say something profound about "how things have changed".

Oh really.

 

.

.


 

 

 

 

 

 

June 1976 vs. June 2021 are compared for temperature anomaly relative to what amounts to a microscopic baseline, 1951-1980. This baseline was doubtlessly cherry-picked because average temperatures were conveniently cooler during this period than both before it and after it.

For my station, KGRR, the June average annual mean temperature during the baseline period is 67.1. But before that it was 67.7, and 68.1 after it.  That little baseline period gives you the maximum anomaly. June 1976 was 2.3 degrees F higher than 67.1, and June 2021 3.8 degrees F higher, but this tells you nothing important.
 
You can't conclude anything significant from this when there were three hotter Junes than June 2021 in 1987, 1991, and 2005. Hot as it was, June 2021 was cooler than those three Junes. Are we cooling?

In fact, for KGRR since 1892, there were 11 Junes HOTTER than June 2021 all told. And while three of those occurred since the end of the chosen baseline period in 1980 as just mentioned, eight occurred before 1951: June 1919, 1933, 1921, 1934, 1923, 1949, 1894, 1931.
 
That's 8 Junes before 1951 all hotter than June 2021, and 3 Junes since 1980 which were hotter.

Nothing's really changed. Hot Junes were more frequent in the distant past.

And keep in mind that those global temperature maps aren't based on measurements. Temperatures all over the place aren't "taken". Most are modeled, and many are "imputed" from measurements taken too far away to pass the smell test.
 
But they are very colorful.