On Jun 22 I estimated we'd see 130k by about Jul 15, so we are nine days early.
So it took 14 days to add another 10k vs. 15 days from 110k to 120k in this data set.
The problem is we had big death data dumps both on Jun 25 and Jun 30, adding 3,766 old deaths from the past which had never been counted in the totals.
I think that sped up the climb unrepresentatively.
New deaths are actually accumulating at a slower pace.
In the 15 worst states for coronavirus deaths, average daily new deaths counted from the very beginning of the pandemic totaled 852 for those 15 states on Sat Jun 27, and declined to 828 on Sat Jul 4. That includes all those data dumps, too.
We've observed four days recently where total US new deaths have been below 300, levels we haven't seen since late March just as the pandemic was kicking into high gear:
Jun 21 257
Jun 28 270
Jul 04 264
Jul 05 262.
With case counts rapidly rising in Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and many other places in the south, it is feared we'll be seeing a rise in deaths in coming weeks. We'll have to see. Since such a high proportion of deaths occurred in nursing and assisted living facilities in the north, it is difficult to say if we'll experience the same thing in the south. They've had time to learn.
With new deaths actually hitting new lows, I'm cautiously optimistic.
Stay away from crowds, especially in enclosed spaces, keep your distance and wear a mask. It's easy if you try.
