Daily new deaths nationally hit an interim low on Jun 21 of 257 in the New York Times data set. This was followed by 270 on Jun 28, 264 on Jul 4, and 262 on Jul 5. Clearly the period from the third week of June to the Fourth of July holiday has marked a welcome low in pandemic deaths.
In the 15 worst states for deaths from coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic, it is telling how the average of daily new deaths measured from the beginning continues to trend lower. The worst states for average daily new deaths measured from the beginning, as of Jun 27, were, in this order: NY NJ PA MI MA IL CT CA LA FL MD OH GA IN and TX.
On Jun 27, the sum of the average of daily new deaths from coronavirus in those 15 states stood at 852, measured from the beginning in each state. Again, that's the sum of average daily new deaths in the 15 worst states since the beginning of the pandemic on that date. It includes any and all revisions and updates reported to date, for whatever reason. No messing around with moving averages and all the BS (Yes, I'm talking about you New York, you New Jersey, you Delaware, you Illinois, and who knows who else) which gave false indications at a point in time in the past because the data was provisional, or standards of inclusion changed, or somebody came along and cleaned up your sorry mess. This way at least you have a fixed terminus a quo in each state, and a moving terminus ad quem which you can track from day to day which incorporates all the changes smoothed out over the long haul. A nice relatively clean benchmark, at a time when it appears we have otherwise reached a new low ebb.
Well, a week later from Jun 27 when we were at 852, on Jul 4 that sum had fallen to 828. By Jul 7 it had fallen again, to 819. And despite the rise in deaths in the south very recently, the sum on Jul 8 fell again, to 817 as of this morning's figures.
Despite all the bad news in the south (CA 145 deaths on 7/8, AZ 101 on 7/7, TX 119 on 7/8), and New Jersey again dumping 142 new deaths into the numbers on Jul 8 (really New Jersey?), the death trend in the worst hit states, which again does include CA, TX and FL, overall continues to trend lower. This is what one would expect if the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Time marches on and naturally ameliorates the ugly data, as long as no new ugly data appear. You'd be able to tell easily if deaths were getting worse because the average from the beginning would flatline and then trend higher. Or if suddenly AZ, for example, joined the list of worst hit states (I'm using a low threshold of 18 average daily new deaths measured from the beginning), that would be a huge red flag (AZ did tick up, however, from 11 average daily new deaths to 12 recently). CO at 14 and VA at 15 would be more likely candidates to join the list than AZ at this point. But so far neither flatlining of the average nor "new joiners" is happening.
The death trend is lower.
So far.
