Thursday, July 12, 2018

Political reality in Michigan summer 2018

The left is still here, waiting to be roused.

Barack Obama 2008:  2,872,579
Barack Obama 2012:  2,564,569
Donald Trump 2016:  2,279,543
Hillary Clinton 2016: 2,268,839

While Hillary's deficit to Trump was just 10,704 votes, to Obama it was between 295,730 and 603,740 votes.

Somebody here in Michigan really disliked Hillary.

Who could it be?

Bernie Sanders 2016 Democrat primary: 598,943
Hillary Clinton 2016 Democrat primary: 581,775
Donald Trump 2016 Republican primary: 483,753
all other Republicans 2016 primary: 842,836

Trump admitted in December 2016 in remarks in Grand Rapids that "a bunch of people didn't show up" in November, which is the real reason he won here. Obviously a mix of Bernie supporters/black people couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary in the general.

But they didn't just go away.

Trump approval in Michigan in June 2018 is at 44%, disapproval at 52%. He was at 48/40 in January 2017. That growth of disapproval combined with erosion of approval looks problematic for Michigan Republicans in November.

Michigan's employment level, though much improved, still hasn't recovered to pre-Great Recession levels, and is flat to slightly declining in early 2018. GDP on the other hand is better than the pre-Great Recession period, but is flat in the mid-threes. These things argue for continued Republican governance, but cheerleaders for a Trump boom will encounter a disconnect with the actual experience of people. They are advised to cool it.

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