Current polling in "Toss-Up" states shows Libertarian Gary Johnson spoiling it for Trump in FL, ME, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA and WI, handing Hillary 104 Electoral College votes to her base number of 188 for a total of 292, 22 more than she needs to become president.
Clinton's average win in these eight states right now is by 4.1, with Johnson siphoning off an average of 8.5 from Trump. Clinton is winning in these states despite an average siphon from her totals of 2.4 by Stein.
In FL, it's Clinton winning +1.2 (Johnson 5.8/Stein 1.3).
In ME, it's Clinton +3.8 (Johnson 11.0/Stein 3.8).
In MI, it's Clinton +5.0 (Johnson 8.8/Stein 2.3).
In MN, it's Clinton +4.3 (Johnson 5.3/Stein 2.0).
In NH, it's Clinton +5.7 (Johnson 13.0/Stein 3.0).
In PA, it's Clinton +1.8 (Johnson 5.8/Stein 2.6).
In VA, it's Clinton +6.0 (Johnson 8.7/Stein 1.5).
In WI, it's Clinton +5.0 (Johnson 9.7/Stein 2.3).
In the other "Toss-Ups" Trump is ahead right now, but not by much, by just 2.2 on average. He is vulnerable to shifts toward the other candidates in these seven states. Johnson's average siphon from Trump in these states is already 8.2, while Stein might be contributing to Trump on average only 2.2 taken from Hillary in four, namely AZ, CO, IA and OH.
In AZ, it's Trump winning +2.2 (Johnson 9.2/Stein 2.2).
In CO, it's Trump +0.5 (Johnson 9.0/Stein 3.3).
In GA, it's Trump +4.5 (Johnson 7.7).
In IA, it's Trump +5.0 (Johnson 8.8/Stein 1.5).
In NV, it's Trump +0.6 (Johnson 8.4).
In NC, it's Trump +0.8 (Johnson 7.3).
In OH, it's Trump +2.0 (Johnson 6.8/Stein 1.8).
Trump is up against a free-trade, open borders ideology not just in Hillary Clinton, but within his own Republican Party, on which Gary Johnson is capitalizing under the rubric of "freedom". Trump ought to be pointing out to his patriotic followers that the libertarians are not on their side but on the side of the elites running the establishment, which means they are on Hillary's side, and keep emphasizing that he has the back of those who are Americans and love Americans.
