Tuesday, October 18, 2016

With 21 days to go to election day, Clinton is still winning in the Electoral College but by 6% fewer EC votes than last week

Last week the Real Clear Politics Electoral College map and the polling in the Toss-ups indicated a Clinton win 339-199.

Now with three weeks to go to election day Hillary's advantage has shrunk by 6%, now winning 321-217, and Trump is up by 9%.

Clinton today has 256 EC votes including 9 states which only lean her way.

Trump has 170 EC votes including 5 states which only lean his way.

ME-2 (+5.4) with 1 EC vote is in Trump's column, ME-1 (+19) with 1 EC vote is in Hillary's column.

Polling in the Toss-ups as of this hour has NV in the Clinton column by +2.5, MN by +4.3, NH by +3.6, NC by +2.7, and FL by +3.6. Her average lead is +3.3.

Libertarian Gary Johnson polls an average of 5.9 in these Clinton Toss-up states, in every case out-polling Clinton's actual leading margins, arguably helping Clinton win them. Green Party candidate Jill Stein polls 2.0 in MN, 2.0 in NH, and 1.4 in FL.

And in the Trump column are Toss-ups AZ by +1, IA by +3.7, IN by +4.5, and OH by +0.7. His average lead is +2.5.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein polls 1.5 in AZ, 1.7 in IA, and 2.3 in OH. Arguably Trump is winning in AZ and OH with Stein's help. Johnson polls 8.5 in AZ, 8.3 in IA, 10.0 in IN, and 6.5 in OH.

Overall Gary Johnson is polling an average of 7.0 in the nine Toss-up states and Stein an average of 1.8 in six of them compared with a combined average lead for Clinton or Trump of only 3.0.

Does the Libertarian Party or the Green Party have representation in Congress? If they're not a phenomenon of the people, maybe those parties shouldn't be allowed to spoil presidential elections by running candidates in the first place.