Leaning Trump: leads in TX, MO, IN, SC and ME-2 by an average of 8.3, average margin of error 3.9.
Leaning Clinton: leads in NM, CO, WI, MI, PA, VA, NH and NJ by an average of 7.9, average margin of error 4.0.
The race is a toss up in NV, AZ, MN, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL with an average lead of 2.6, average margin of error 3.9.
Trump at 165 Electoral College votes would have to capture all the toss-ups save either NV or IA to finish with 270, but winning MN seems like a stretch to me in that scenario. Winning all the toss-ups save MN puts Trump short at 266.
NH with 4 EC votes is Trump's likeliest take away focus among Clinton's "leaners" right now. Her +6 there has an average margin of error of 4.6.
