Tuesday, January 17, 2012

2.5 Million Homes Lost to Foreclosure. How About At Least Another 4.5 Million?

Laurie Goodman is back in the news on housing, here:

All told, Goodman warns that more than 10 million of the nation's 55 million mortgage holders could default by 2018. ...
To avoid the "moral hazard" of rewarding foolish borrowers, Goodman recommends that lenders swap immediate principal reductions for shares of any gains on the mortgaged house when it is sold.

In 2010 she was talking 11-12 million defaults, so the new, only slightly lower, estimate shows that in the intervening two years she has corrected her predictive range by at most 16 percent.