Sunday, July 31, 2011

Stabilizing Debt to GDP Ratio Requires $1 Trillion in Cuts Per Year, Not $400 Billion

So says John Chambers of Standard and Poor's Sovereign Ratings Committee here. The ratio stabilized at the current level of 75 percent would remain consistent with a AAA debt rating going forward.

The $1 trillion per year represents about 7.5 percent of GDP. With the latest report of current dollar GDP running at $15 trillion, 7.5 percent is $1.13 trillion.

Viewed another way, if we simply threw out baseline budgeting, which builds in increases to the budget each year at a rate near 7 percent, we'd be nearly home free without having to do anything.

And another way to put that is, just freeze the damn budget at current levels for a decade.

Sort of like what the average working Joe has experienced since 2000: no real wage progress. If he can do it, government certainly should.