Thursday, January 5, 2023
NFL Draft goes to only seven rounds
GOP leader McCarthy loses 10th House speaker vote as far right Republicans dig in -- CNBC
Tuesday, January 3, 2023
I watched Die Hard on Christmas Eve
It was much dumber than I remember, but then so was I back in the day.
It turns out that Roger Ebert's review here captured what's wrong with the film.
The review in THE GRAUNIAD here is just laughable.
Yippee-ki-yay.
Total bond market index for long term investors vs. S&P 500
Return for VBMFX, Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund, investor shares, closed to new investors, inception December 1986-December 2022 per annum:
5.08%.
Return for S&P 500, average nominal, dividends fully reinvested, December 1986-December 2022 per annum:
10.28%.
Long-term investment grade bonds for long term investors vs. the S&P 500
Return for VWESX, Vanguard's Long-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund, inception July 1973-December 2022:
7.48%.
Return for S&P 500, average nominal, dividends fully reinvested, July 1973-December 2022:
10.61%.
Sunday, January 1, 2023
Germany boosts electricity from coal to 10 gigawatts, a drop in the bucket
Bloomberg, here:
Germany now generates more than a third of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, according to Destatis, the federal statistical office. In the third quarter, its electricity from the fuel was 13.3% higher than the same period a year earlier, the agency said.
Germany as recently as 2019 still had 40 gigawatts of electricity capacity from coal, and planned to reduce that to 27 by 2022, so obviously Germany has much more capacity available than 10 gigawatts during its present natural gas supply crisis caused by the Ukraine war.
But Germany's more serious mistake than reducing its coal capacity was its voluntary and hysterical reduction of nuclear generation capacity by 40% in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Now it's got just 3 reactors left out of the 17 it had back in the day.
Meanwhile US electric capacity from coal in 2021 dwarfed the German, at about 210 gigawatts, but that is way down from almost 318 in 2011, a similarly ideologically driven, self-imposed, and illogical reduction of 108 gigawatts, or 33% in ten years.
The foolish growing reliance on unreliable "green energy" in the US and the turn away from coal which began in earnest under Obama has meant increasing unreliability of electric resources during extreme events, and a huge increase in the duration of power outages experienced by customers.
The average customer outage was just north of 8 hours in 2020 vs. about 3.5 hours in 2013, an increase of over 130%.
This will only get worse if America tries to rely on wind and solar at the expense of fossil fuels and nuclear.
Climate Update for KGRR 2022
Mean average temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan since 1892: 48.2 degrees F.
Mean average temperature in 2022: 48.7.
That is all.
Friday, December 30, 2022
US COVID-19 vaccination fell off a cliff in 2022, down 90% from 2021, while confirmed deaths fell by 44% overall
Just 24.3 million received at least one dose in 2022 through Dec 27.
244.06 million had received at least one dose through 12/31/21.
Per Our World In Data, here.
About 19 million in 2022 received what amounts to the two-dose protocol.
Confirmed deaths in 2022 fell to about 264k from 475k in 2021 at the same time that vaccination fell off the cliff (724 deaths per day vs. 1301 deaths per day).
And in the second half of 2022 about only 70k have died (roughly 385 per day vs. 1066 per day in the first half of 2022). That's still 3.85 times worse than for an average influenza year, but that's a win in my book at this stage of the game.
Thursday, December 29, 2022
There was nothing wrong with the coal or natural gas plants of the Tennessee Valley Authority: It was one-off wind damage and too many far-flung customers dependent on its electricity for heat
Cold weather pushed up electricity use in TVA's seven-state region where more than 60% of homes are heated by electricity. ...
TVA Chief Operating Officer Don Moul is heading an investigation of the problems that led to the power outages last week. Moul said in a telephone interview that high winds damaged several of TVA's protective structures at the Cumberland plant and several gas-fired combustion turbines used for such peak power periods. TVA's directive to local power companies to cut some of their energy use was the most efficient means to respond to the inadequate energy supply, Moul said.
More.
The left, of course, is blaming the fossil fuels themselves instead of wind damage to existing energy infrastructure, whose maintenance has been neglected in the rage for so-called green energy and against coal:
"[T]he mandatory blackouts were due to coal and gas failures," [Amy] Kelly [the Tennessee representative for the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal Campaign] said.
The hysteria of this prejudiced response is matched, however, by the feckless customers of the federally-run utility, whose only care is that their power was cut when it was 5 degrees F outside, and on Christmas Eve:
"Why would anyone in their right mind decide it is a GOOD idea to have rolling blackouts today? First of all, it is a whopping 5 degrees outside and second, it is Christmas Eve ... This is ridiculous."
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Cumulative season to date 100 inches of snow in Buffalo, NY is record-setting, ahead of Nov-Dec 2000 at 95.9 inches
36.9 total inches in November 2022 (3.1 feet). November record is 45.6 inches (3.8 feet).
63.1 inches in December 2022 through the 26th (5.25 feet). December record is 82.7 inches (6.9 feet).
January record is 68.3 inches.
February record is 54.2 inches.
March record is 38.5 inches.
April record is 15 inches.
May record is 7.9 inches.
The mean average season is 85.4 inches, 55 of which come after Dec. 31st.
Sunday, December 25, 2022
Tennessee has had plenty of much colder temperatures than this Christmas and never had to turn off the power before, but that was before they went insane
What we know: TVA ordered rolling blackouts for the first time in 90 years amid freezing temps
Tennessee Valley Authority retired 3,370 MW of coal electric power capacity in 2012, 2017, and 2018.
The reason for that isn't because the plants were old, built in the 1950s. TVA still operates a bunch of much older hydroelectric plants dating back as far as 1911.
It's pure anti-fossil fuel ideology driving that, and foolishly allocating new capacity to solar and wind, which can't cut it.
And that's why they had to shut off the power in Tennessee for the first time.
The damn fools got 0.7 inches of snow and said it was one inch deep, too.
Saturday, December 24, 2022
CNN thinks November core inflation at 4.7% yoy is good news
There's never any discussion about how core inflation vaulted to the current levels well before the war in Ukraine even began.
The reason for the inflation surge is Biden's war for green energy, the one input which makes everything cost more because green energy costs much more than conventional energy from coal, oil, and natural gas.
Add trillion$ in COVID stimulus chasing too few goods and it's a recipe for the disaster which is ongoing, not moderating.
Some people get it. Most don't.
Friday, December 23, 2022
Joe Biden's America two days before Christmas is a third world patchwork of power outages all over the place
About 1.04 million without power this morning.
It's going to be a rough Christmas Eve without power with forecast real lows in the single digits.
Wednesday, December 21, 2022
The good news is COVID-19 deaths per million were 4-5x worse a year ago than they are now in the US
Deaths per million stabilized 8 months ago at the current level and haven't really budged since then.
Those who predicted an endemic situation developing appear to have been right.
1.2 deaths per million presently represents about 398 deaths per day at current population, or about 11.9k dying per month since mid-April.
Actual cumulative deaths over the period have averaged about 12.25k per month, or 98k.
If that rate persists like this for a full year we'll get something like 147k deaths, which would then still be 4x worse than the average influenza deaths year.
92% of COVID-19 deaths in California continue to be among those 50 and older, and 72% are among those 65 and older.
That's the bad news.
Seems like an unacceptable new normal to me.
Concentrating efforts on vaccinating people younger than 50 seems pointless and highly inappropriate for the situation.
Half of the top 10 snowiest Decembers in Grand Rapids have occurred since 2007
The result, no doubt, of the generally wetter conditions in the Great Lakes over the long haul as predicted by slightly cooler Pacific Ocean waters indicated by the Oceanic Nino Index.
We've had 14+ inches so far in Dec 2022 with 2 feet expected in the latest storm, so this December might break into the top 5.
Winter. It's what's for Christmas.
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Saturday, December 17, 2022
Friday, December 16, 2022
Foreign ownership level of US Treasury securities fell 6.2% year over year in October
The level contracted to a point approximately last seen in May 2021.
As reported levels in the table are subject to revision in future monthly tables. My graph shows as reported levels in May each year.
The drop probably does not reflect actual selling, but falling market value of UST because of the bond rout.
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Surprise, surprise, right on schedule progressive Robert Kuttner attacks the 2 percent inflation target in favor of 4 percent
It all sounds very persuasive, as long as you forget how inflation impoverishes the lower classes and keeps them down so that the elites can continue to milk them like slaves year after year. 4% just does it twice as fast as 2%.
The little people are an afterthought to the left.
This is the "inflation is actually good" talk you hear from lefties from time to time.
Story here.
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Another inflation report is out, the data are bad, but they're trying to spin it that inflation is moderating
The government's chief inflation measure, so-called core inflation which excludes food and energy (third graph), ticked down to 6% in November. Big whoop. Core inflation has now averaged 6.3% throughout 2022, and was actually slightly lower year over year for two months in the summer than it was in November.
The Fed is failing in its effort to bring inflation down, plain and simple.
Higher prices are the new normal.
Meanwhile food inflation is up 12% year over year after peaking above 13% in the summer. Under Trump food inflation was practically non-existent, but Americans have been forced to cope with it month after month for over a year now, with no end in sight.
And energy inflation year over year has been north of 13% for 21 consecutive months. Go ahead. Count 'em. Under Trump we actually had energy disinflation because his administration, unlike Biden's, enthusiastically supported fracking.
Rising food and energy costs are absolutely core, especially when they deliver a one-two punch to the gut like this.
The people hardest hit don't have a voice, however. They never do. The chattering classes are doing just fine, and all they want to talk about is nonsense. Their lot is with the profiteers from inflation, not with the bottom half of the country.
The poor get poorer.
Same as it ever was.
Monday, December 12, 2022
Saturday, December 10, 2022
The thing on the right is now facing two charges for luggage theft
That's some weird fetish :
Sam Brinton [is] the deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition at the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy.
The 39 House Republicans Who Voted for the Same-Sex Marriage Bill, annotated
Representative Kelly Armstrong of North Dakota
Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska [re-elected 2022 with 51.3% of the vote]
Representative Ken Calvert of California [re-elected 2022 with 52.3% of the vote]
Representative Kat Cammack of Florida
Representative Mike Carey of Ohio
Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]
Representative John Curtis of Utah
Representative Rodney Davis of Illinois [defeated in 2022 primary by fellow Republican in redistricting-forced battle]
Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota [House GOP Majority Whip]
Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
*Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin [flipped from Nay in summer to Yea now]
Representative Andrew Garbarino of New York
Representative Mike Garcia of California
Representative Carlos Gimenez of Florida
Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas
Representative Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]
*Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary, flipped from Nay in summer to Yea now]
Representative Ashley Hinson of Iowa
Representative Darrell Issa of California
Representative Ch[r]is Jacobs of New York [retiring after flipping position on guns after Buffalo mass shooting and angering supporters]
Representative David Joyce of Ohio [leader of House Republican moderate caucus]
Representative John Katko of New York [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]
Representative Nancy Mace of South Carolina
Representative Nicole Malliotakis of New York
Representative Peter Meijer of Michigan [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]
Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa
Representative Blake Moore of Utah
Representative Dan Newhouse of Washington [voted to impeach Trump]
Representative Jay Obernolte of California
Representative Tom Rice of South Carolina [voted to impeach Trump, defeated in 2022 primary]
Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho
Representative Elise Stefanik of New York
Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin
Representative Chris Stewart of Utah
Representative Mike Turner of Ohio
Representative Fred Upton of Michigan [voted to impeach Trump, retiring]
Representative David Valadao of California [voted to impeach Trump, re-elected with 51.5% of the vote]
Representative Ann Wagner of Missouri [Republican phony of the year LOL: “This district is home to me, and there is no better feeling than representing our conservative, Midwest values in Congress.”]
Representative Tim Waltz of Florida [LOL: NYT has Democrat Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor, on the brain; the actual name is Republican US Rep. Michael Waltz, who ran unopposed in FL-6 and was re-elected in 2022; the newspaper of record smdh]
Friday, December 9, 2022
Thursday, December 8, 2022
If you haven't saved enough for an emergency, it's on you, and borrowing money for an emergency when you have it is another stupid thing which is on you
Two stupids don't make a smart.
“It’s a terrible idea to take money out of your 401(k),” said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and co-founder of oXYGen Financial, based in Atlanta. ...
Households should weigh all their options for cash before resorting to tapping a 401(k) plan, said Jenkin, a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
For example, households without an emergency fund might be able to free up money for a relatively small short-term cash need by canceling or reducing membership plans, or by selling little-used or unneeded items on Facebook Marketplace or a garage sale, he said. A short-term loan or home equity line of credit would generally also be better than tapping a 401(k).
More.
There's nothing like paying a steep price for a mistake to keep you from making it again. Only morons pay twice.
What else would you expect someone to say who makes his living selling retirement products?
39 House Republicans join 12 Senate Republicans to pass Democrat bill overthrowing the Defense of Marriage Act
The Respect for Marriage Act passed the Democratic-led House in a 258-169-1 vote, as 39 Republicans joined all Democrats in supporting it. It also won bipartisan support in the Democratic-controlled Senate in late November: 12 GOP senators crossed party lines to vote for the legislation. ...
The Respect for Marriage Act formally repeals the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which was signed into law by then-President Bill Clinton. That bill denied same-sex couples federal benefits and permitted states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.
The Supreme Court would later go on to invalidate the key provisions of DOMA in two watershed rulings, United States v. Windsor and Obergefell v. Hodges in 2013 and 2015, respectively.
Roberts, Scalia, Thomas and Alito dissented in Windsor against Kennedy in 2013, same in Hodges in 2015.
There's always a minority of Republicans who exist only to advance the Democrats' godless agenda.
It's never the other way around, unless it has to do with money.
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