Wednesday, December 21, 2022

The good news is COVID-19 deaths per million were 4-5x worse a year ago than they are now in the US

Deaths per million stabilized 8 months ago at the current level and haven't really budged since then.

Those who predicted an endemic situation developing appear to have been right.

1.2 deaths per million presently represents about 398 deaths per day at current population, or about 11.9k dying per month since mid-April.

Actual cumulative deaths over the period have averaged about 12.25k per month, or 98k.

If that rate persists like this for a full year we'll get something like 147k deaths, which would then still be 4x worse than the average influenza deaths year.

92% of COVID-19 deaths in California continue to be among those 50 and older, and 72% are among those 65 and older.

That's the bad news.

Seems like an unacceptable new normal to me.

Concentrating efforts on vaccinating people younger than 50 seems pointless and highly inappropriate for the situation.