Tuesday, July 15, 2025

That there is so little pushback on this on X proves that American fans of American football have lost the testosterone which animates the game

Mad King Ludwig thinks he can re-name everything.

You know, like a man who thinks he can call himself a woman.

Same denial of reality disease, different expression. 

 

 
... While the term “football” is widely used for the sport, especially in Europe and much of the world, the U.S., Canada and Australia generally use “soccer” to refer to the game. ...
 
 

 

Bond investors slowly roasting on the turning spit

 


Core cpi inflation in June 2025 is up sharply to 2.93% year over year from 2.78% in May

 


Corey Comperatore dodged nothing



 
 
 

... It’s an ancient mistake to make messiahs out of politics. But likewise, it’s foolish to believe a God who clothes lilies and feeds sparrows is neglectful of the earthly authorities He commands His people to respect. To do either is to think too little of the sovereignty of God. It is the God of Heaven, the prophet Daniel says, who “changes times and seasons; he removes kings and sets up kings.” When doing so spares us from evil, we ought to thank Him. ...

Why do I think we would not be reading this today if God had removed the king instead of Corey at Butler one year ago?

Shall we thank God for the evil visited upon the family of Corey Comperatore? 

 

Different parties, same federal incompetence: Obama's EPA polluted the Animas and San Juan Rivers with 3 million gallons of toxic mine waste, 10 years later Trump's National Park Service burns down the Grand Canyon

Oops.

 





Monday, July 14, 2025

Trump reverses course and equips Ukraine with long-needed air defenses

 


The average vehicle on the road is now 12.8 years old, a new record as of May 2025

 


This index of used car values is still up 39% from the pre-pandemic level of 150 in June 2025

 


Kevin Hassett is full of it as usual

 

 
That makes no sense.
 
Buying costlier U.S.-made goods over foreign goods would naturally boost inflation, quite apart from new tariff differences in price. 
 
Meanwhile the core pce inflation rate in May 2025 year-over-year was 3.88% higher than it was in April, the 65% majority of which is services but still includes goods.
 
That's what the 0.1 point rise from 2.577% to 2.677% means.
 
The May 2025 rate is actually slightly higher than in May 2024, which means we've made no progress in the last year. 
 
 

 

. . . with liberty and justice for all


 

 No Man can be a sincere Lover of Liberty, that is not for increasing and communicating that Blessing to all People; and therefore the giving or restoring it not only to our Brethren of Scotland and Ireland, but even to France it self (were it in our Power) is one of the principal Articles of Whiggism.

-- Robert Molesworth (1656-1725) 

Gallup poll shows backlash to ugly Trump immigration enforcement, record 79% now say immigration is a good thing

 


 The percentage saying immigration is a good thing has been slowly rising since the 2002 low at 52% to a record high 79% now.

The percentage saying it's a bad thing has been steadily falling since the 2002 high at 42%, now at just 17%, a record low.

The ten-point underwater spread in 2002 is now sixty-two points in 2025. 

Donald Trump has completely botched the issue, putting the stink of his ugly behavior on it for the foreseeable future.

More. 

Only fools throw red meat to dogs, yank it away, and act surprized when they turn mad

 

 

 

Imagine coming in third to this guy at this point

 



Sunday, July 13, 2025

A new climatology graph not previously shown here: Trend for total seasonal annual snowfall for Grand Rapids, Michigan

 Seasonal measurements run from July to June.

Like the precipitation graph for Grand Rapids (recently updated), this one shows the same wetter trend over the last century plus, which makes sense given the cooler Pacific ocean trend shown by the Oceanic Nino Index (update forthcoming), and given the moderating winter heating demand shown by declining trend for heating degree days (also recently updated):


 

After the shot in Butler, Satan entered into him

And after the sop Satan entered into him. -- John 13:27


Saturday, July 12, 2025

They're leaving the dogs, they're leaving the cats . . .

 ICE raids are leaving some L.A. cats and dogs homeless

... Pets belonging to people who are deported or flee are being left in empty apartments, dumped into the laps of unprepared friends and dropped off at overcrowded shelters, The Times found.

"Unless people do take the initiative [and get the pets out], those animals will starve to death in those backyards or those homes," said Yvette Berke, outreach manager for Cats at the Studios, a rescue that serves L.A. ... 

"Pets are like the collateral damage to the current political climate,” said Jennifer Naitaki, vice president of programs and strategic initiatives at the Michelson Found Animals Foundation. ...

Trump's stupid bullying of Jerome Powell is analogous to his stupid bullying of Canada's Justin Trudeau and now Mark Carney

Jerome Powell doesn't set interest rates.
 
The Federal Open Market Committee sets interest rates. That's why the release of the committee's prior meeting minutes is always keenly awaited and is by itself a major market mover. Powell's is one vote among many on the FOMC:
 
Where interest rates should be today, and when they should be reduced, is already a topic of debate inside the Fed, a decision, it should be noted, that cannot be made unilaterally by the chair. Powell’s leadership and professionalism does not appear to be a concern within the halls of the central bank. Certainly, none of his colleagues, present or past, have made the case that he is incompetent. 
 
 
Similarly the Canadian Prime Ministers' control over trade decisions is also muted, deferring as they must to provincial and territorial authorities.
 
Trump bullies people like this who cannot make unilateral changes to policy in order to make himself look like an assertive leader to his equally stupid followers.
 
That's why people like Larry Kudlow disgust me. He knows what I am writing is true, but he joins in on the pig pile nonetheless. 
 
Greater things are at stake in this than interest rate policy. Trump is playing with fire. 

  

Now the disgusting Larry Kudlow piles on Jay Powell

 

The New York Times eulogizes one of its sources from the past with contempt, David Gergen, who has succumbed to Lewy body dementia at age 83


 

 ... Years later, he expressed contempt for President-elect Donald J. Trump. “A bully — mean, nasty and disrespectful of anyone in his way,” he wrote in a 2021 column for CNN. ...

Mr. Gergen wore his 6-foot-5 frame comfortably and was graced with an easygoing manner, verbal quickness and a ready laugh that made him popular with many White House reporters. He also leaked information often enough to be labeled “the Sieve” by some of them. 

That reputation fed speculation that he was Deep Throat, the shadowy figure who provided The Washington Post with insights into the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. That source, however, was confirmed in 2005 to have been W. Mark Felt, the No. 2 official at the F.B.I. ...

The spin “had nothing to do with ideas,” Mr. Gergen said. “It had nothing to do with anything that was real. Eventually, it became selling the sizzle without the steak. There was nothing connected to it. It was all cellophane. It was all packaging.” ...

Mr. Gergen was the author of a best-selling book, “Eyewitness to Power: The Essence of Leadership, Nixon to Clinton” (2000). The book offered lessons for would-be leaders that tended to be little more than bromides, advising them to develop “a capacity to persuade” and “an ability to work within the system.” He revisited the topic in a 2022 book, “Hearts Touched With Fire: How Great Leaders Are Made.” ...

More.

Republican David Gergen was on the wrong side, you see, even if he was a centrist.

Friday, July 11, 2025

Elon Musk/DOGE cuts failure continues: Federal deficit spending is 5% higher year to date through June than it was last year at this time, according to the monthly statement of the U. S. Treasury Department

 The fiscal year to date deficit October 2023-June 2024 was $1.273258 trillion.

The fiscal year to date deficit October 2024-June 2025 is $1.337372 trillion, $64.114 billion higher than a year ago, or 5%. 


 

This dope who works for Trump can barely speak English, is just looking for any way he can to oust Fed Chair Jay Powell

These people make me sick.
 
The renovations were approved in 2021 and won't be finished until long after Powell leaves next May. 
 

It's an investigation with a pre-drawn conclusion, that's all.

... “When you go to the nation’s mall, you see the construction of this palace ... upwards of $2.5 billion massive cost overrun, and we want to make sure we have facts as to the largesse and the extent to which it’s overrun,” Vought said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “I think it just points to the fundamental mismanagement of the Fed under the chairman.” ... 

″The problem with Chairman Powell is he has been late at every turn,” Vought said. “It’s time to lower rates. You have a problem there. But again, this is about the largesse and the fact that he has systemically mismanaged the Fed, and that is evident by what we’re seeing with regard to this monstrosity, this Palace of Versailles, on the National Mall.” ... 

“This certainly has to do with the fiscal mismanagement of the Fed, of which [interest rates] is one aspect of it,” he said. “We are going to zoom in over the last several days on this. We have new commissioners at the National Capital Planning Commission who are asking very tough questions.” ...

Ron Insana: Why Trump’s new attack on Powell should be so troubling to investors

... If I were a foreign investor witnessing the ouster of a Fed chair, replaced by a presidential supplicant, I’d sell the dollar and U.S. bonds and head for the hills. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

The great impediment to a U. S. - Canada trade deal which most people in the U. S., including our dunce of a president, don't seem to understand is that it's not Mark Carney standing in the way, it's Canada's sovereign 10 provinces and 3 territories


 

Canada is today's poster child for America's bad old system of states' rights.

Canada does not have free trade with itself, let alone with the United States. Imagine not being able to drive an 18-wheeler cross country. 

 

 Is Canada now free of internal trade barriers? Not yet, says expert: Breaking down interprovincial trade barriers is still a work in progress, says expert

... When Carney made his campaign promise, he was talking about cutting red tape put up by the federal government — not the rules set by the provinces, which have the most authority in this area. ... 

There is no comprehensive list of existing internal trade barriers. Even some lobby groups have told parliamentarians they don't know how many barriers their own industries face.

There isn't even consensus on what all counts as a trade barrier. ...

Internal Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, who has repeatedly stated that most of the barriers are at the provincial level, testified to the Senate that she will meet with her provincial counterparts on July 8 to discuss next steps.

One major obstacle is in Freeland's crosshairs: Canada's patchwork of interprovincial trucking regulations.

"One of three areas that I will be putting on the agenda at that meeting is trucking," she said on June 16. "It should be a lot easier than it is to drive a truck from Halifax to Vancouver. We need to get rid of conflicting requirements."

 

 

Unaffordable Care Act to become more unaffordable for millions in 2026 due to Trump's reconciliation bill, just in time for the election


 

 Why 22 million people may see ‘sharp’ increase in health insurance premiums in 2026

... More than 22 million people — about 92% of ACA enrollees — received a federal subsidy this year that reduced their insurance premiums, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.

Those recipients would see “sharp premium increase” on Jan. 1, Cynthia Cox, the group’s ACA program director, said during a webinar on Wednesday.

The average marketplace enrollee saved $705 in 2024 — a 44% reduction in premium costs — because of the enhanced tax credits, according to a November analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Without the credits, average out-of-pocket premiums in 2026 would rise by more than 75%, Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy, said during the webinar.

Additionally, 4.2 million Americans would become uninsured over the next decade if the enhanced subsidies lapse, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

That growth in the ranks of the uninsured is on top of the nearly 12 million people expected to lose health coverage from over $1 trillion in spending cuts Republicans made to health programs like Medicaid and the ACA to help offset the legislation’s cost. ... 

ACA enrollment has more than doubled, to roughly 24 million people in 2025 from about 11 million in 2020, according to data tracked by The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF. ...  

According to Google's AI, there are 22.8 million fewer uninsured 2010-2024, presumably because of Obamacare, but 26.7 million more on . . . Medicaid!

Because of that Rube Goldberg Machine known as Obamacare!

Push here, and it comes out there. And the kicker is Medicaid involves estate recovery for nursing home and other care costs at death, which varies by state.

You can run, but you cannot hide. 

 


 

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Six climatology charts for Grand Rapids, Michigan, updated today continue to show little evidence of global warming, but plenty of winter moderation

 

average temperature trending up about only 1 degree F in 132 years; could be heat island effect

winter lows trending slightly lower
summer highs trending slightly lower
winter heating demand trending lower
summer cooling demand effectively flat
and much much wetter








Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Camp Mystic campers routinely did not receive weather emergency training, did not have access to their phones while at camp

 

 
HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.
 
The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.
 
Five years of inspection reports released to The Associated Press do not offer any details of those plans at Mystic, raising new questions about the camp’s preparedness ahead of the torrential July 4 rainfall in flood-prone Texas Hill Country. ... 
 
Charlotte Lauten, 19, spent nine summers at Camp Mystic, mostly recently in 2023. She said she didn’t recall ever receiving instructions as a camper on what do in the case of a weather emergency. ...
 
One thing that likely hindered the girls’ ability to escape was how dark it would have been, Lauten said. Campers don’t have access to their phones while at camp, she said, adding they wouldn’t have cell service anyway because of the remote location. ...



Put it back in the warehouse, Pam

 


$30 billion is not jet fuel for the economy

 

... The new additional senior deduction and other changes in Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may reduce taxation of Social Security benefits by approximately $30 billion per year, estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. ...               

$30 billion is 0.10 percent of current GDP of $29,962.00 billion.

House Speaker Mike Johnson wants you to know this is jet fuel for the economy. 

 


 

Speaking of reversals, now Jeffrey Epstein did kill himself, clients on list relieved to learn that there is no list




Exclusive: DOJ, FBI conclude Jeffrey Epstein had no "client list," committed suicide

Epstein client list doesn’t exist, DOJ says, walking back theory Bondi promoted

Trump again reverses course on Ukraine out of the blue

He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons. He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons.
 

... “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“They’re getting hit very hard now,” he added. “We’re going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily.” ...

Monday, July 7, 2025

When relying on technology in Flash Flood Alley lets you down

 Girls camp grieves loss of 27 campers and counselors in Texas floods that killed nearly 90 people

... Operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, said they lost 27 campers and counselors, confirming their worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. ...

... On Thursday the National Weather Service advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger.

Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said one of the challenges is that many camps are in places with poor cellphone service. ...

Why did the Guadalupe River flood so fast? What to know about Texas' 'Flash Flood Alley'

... The Guadalupe River and its surrounding areas in Texas Hill Country have historically been prone to flash flooding, earning the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This area is particularly hazardous, as river levels increased rapidly at the end of last week and over the weekend. ...

 

Permitting the building of cabins along a river in a dangerous flood plain was just tempting fate.

They do things differently in Texas. 

 

Sunday, July 6, 2025

If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

 
There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.
 
There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.
 
The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.
 
 

 

U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected

 Story.

Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths. 

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025

In chronological order:

 

Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%

Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%

U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%

Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%

Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%

Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30% 

500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%

Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26% 

High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87% 

High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%

GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18% 

International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%

Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%

International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%

Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15% 

Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53% 

Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%

PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%

Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%

Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%

Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82% 

Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93% 

Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%

Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%

Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32% 

Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%

Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%

Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31% 

 

Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception

 VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25

VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913


 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 


 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.


 


Billionaire becomes homeless

 Welcome to the club, bub.

 

Friday, July 4, 2025

Thursday, July 3, 2025

The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus

The roll call vote is here.

The $36 trillion national debt will soar.

The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.

The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.

The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it. 

 

 




Hakeem Jeffries has finished his speech in the US House, which took 8 hours and 44 minutes, a new record

 



You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k

 The swamp is everywhere lol.

down 69k

up 119k

up 56k