Sunday, December 13, 2020

US Coronavirus update through 12/12/20

 Deaths per day from COVID by state since Jan 22 through Saturday 12/12/20:

NY  122
TX  80
FL  69
CA  65
NJ  62
IL  47
PA  44
MI  40
MA  36
GA  34
OH  27
LA, IN  24
AZ  23
NC  20
CT, TN  19
MD  18
SC, MO  17
VA, MN 16
MS, AL  15
CO, WI  14
AR, IA  11
WA, NV, KY  9.

Deaths per day from COVID monthly have leapt from 763 in October to 1,250 in November to 2,496 in the first twelve days of December. If the current December rate per day is sustained it will top April's 1,961 and May's 1,330.

Current hospitalizations for COVID were approximately 30k at the beginning of October, 47k at the end of October, 92k at the end of November, and at a new high of 108,487 on 12/12.

Mask-wearing and social distancing, where practised, have been insufficient by themselves to stop transmission since the lockdowns, where implemented, have been lifted. The entire US strategy hasn't been worthy of the name under Trump, and it won't be under Biden, either.

What was required was: temporary lockdowns to slow the spread, and then a permanent regime after opening of 1) mask-wearing, 2) social distancing, 3) universal testing, 4) isolation of the infected, and 5) tracing the contacts of the infected, followed by testing, isolation and tracing for an indefinite period until transmission became minimal and a vaccine became available.

This was the program enunciated by Dr Michael J Ryan of the World Health Organization on March 13. It has hardly been followed but for a few countries. And it's a scandal that the American CDC and NIH haven't insisted on this.

COVID-19 remains the 3rd leading cause of death in the US behind heart disease and cancer.

The compound daily growth rate for COVID deaths measured weekly is threatening to return to spring levels: