Wednesday, December 30, 2020
Everyone's a phony, except for Nathaniel
Even if everyone else is a liar, God is true.
-- Romans 3:4
Jesus saw Nathan'a-el coming to him, and said of him, "Behold, an Israelite indeed, in whom is no guile!"
-- John 1:47
Speaking of phony, between 49% of you and 74% self-report mask-wearing compliance
There's no way in hell that's anywhere close to true with coronavirus cases soaring by 10 million in two months.
You're all lying through your teeth.
If the Christians exaggerate their church contributions by between 51-115%, it's impossible any of this mask-wearing data is reliable anymore than was the polling data for Biden.
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/11/06/us/contributions-to-churches-are-studied.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend
Tuesday, December 29, 2020
CNN: Wuhan coronavirus cases more like 500k not 50k
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/29/asia/china-coronavirus-seroprevalence-study-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_term=image&utm_source=twCNN&utm_content=2020-12-29T09%3A30%3A05
China has been lying about everything for a long time, like a rug.
Its coronavirus statistics flatlined long ago.
95k cases total to date? Fewer than 5k deaths? C'mon man!
The infection rate quoted in the article implies 260k infections in Hubei apart from the 500k in Wuhan.
At a current global case fatality rate running to 2.18% and 1.75% in the US, you're talking deaths anywhere between 17k and 13k, not 4,777. But honestly, even that is low-balling it. China has 1.4 billion people in it. 17k deaths there compared with 337k in the US? Seriously?
The biggest joke here isn't China's numbers. It's the people who believe them.
Monday, December 28, 2020
Big news of the day: Russia admits its COVID deaths aren't 54k but are a much higher 186k
The new calculation is based on an evaluation of excess death data compared with current projections for deaths based on prior years of death data. The US' CDC does the same routinely and that data confirms that US COVID death data is close though underestimated.
Places like China, Iran and North Korea however will never tell the truth.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
Follow the (gullible) science lol:
Sunday, December 27, 2020
After holding out for $2k/person, the vote for which was supposed to be tomorrow, instead of the $600 in the current COVID relief bill waiting for him to sign, true to form Trump folds like a cheap suit and signs the thing anyway, warts and all
Along with the inability to appoint the right personnel from the beginning, Trump's inability to negotiate for what he claims he wants has to be the biggest tell that THE ART OF THE DEAL was purely aspirational for him, kind of like following what THE BIBLE says is merely aspirational for Christians.
He's the biggest phony we've seen in a long time, and appropriately now the biggest loser.
Sad!
Shall we dispel the COVID is just the flu myth once and for all?
Cumulative announced US COVID cases through 12/26/20 = 19,023,776
Cumulative announced US COVID deaths through 12/26/20 = 332,011
That works out to 1.745% of all COVID cases dying.
In any given year in the US, 30 million people get the flu.
If 1.745% of 30 million died, that would come to 523,500 deaths, about 17 times worse than the average reality of 30,000 flu deaths annually.
That's the difference between 0.1% and 1.745%, which Rush Limbaugh could never figure out.
Drudge soft-peddles the Biden stories, distorts the Trump stories
Did Trump say Afghanistan was "better than the US" as Drudge claims? Nope. Trump said their elections were better run than the US election in 2020.
Was a "White House" counselor's brother recently hired by Amazon as a lobbyist? Depends on which "White House" you mean. Certainly not the current one. The "White House" counselor is Joe Biden's counselor, and his brother conveniently was just recently hired by Amazon to lobby for it.
When I don't have Rush Limbaugh to kick around anymore, I'll always have Drudge.
Friday, December 25, 2020
Thursday, December 24, 2020
US COVID current hospitalizations on 12/23/20 hit a record 119,463 with California, Texas and New York worst hit in the nation in that order
California's situation (blue in the graphs) is now mimicking New York's troubles (gray) in the spring, but not on a population-adjusted basis. Percent of hospital beds dedicated to COVID in California is also rising sharply.
Texas (pink) is reprising its experience in the summer in all categories.
Pennsylvania (not shown) is having a similar experience right now to number three New York.
Systems which find themselves under pressure from the pandemic have lattitude to refrain from performing elective procedures to free up beds. Doing so, however, comes at a cost to hospitals which depend on those procedures to remain profitable.
Tuesday, December 22, 2020
US COVID deaths in the Johns Hopkins data blew right through the 320k mark today
The total was 319k+ this morning and this afternoon is already 321k+
Current hospitalizations for the disease hit a new all-time high for a single day yesterday of 115,351
Monday, December 21, 2020
December 2020 is going to set a record for US COVID-19 deaths
US COVID deaths have averaged 2,488 per day in the first twenty days of December 2020. Projected through the 31st that will result in over 77,000 deaths.
April 2020 had been the worst month for deaths to date with 58,836.
Thursday, December 17, 2020
Monday, December 14, 2020
US COVID deaths hit 300k in the Johns Hopkins data this evening
A couple of days earlier than I had expected.
Sunday, December 13, 2020
The basic premise of the Election 2020 fraud proponents is completely mistaken
The basic premise is that Trump was winning on election day, only to lose overnight as a flood of fraudulent ballots washed away his lead.
This is completely mistaken.
It is now clear that just 54% of voters voted "in person", either early or on election day. 46% voted by mail/absentee.
66% of Trump's vote was "in person", but only 42% of Biden's. That's why it appeared that Trump won on election day.
Most of Biden's vote, 58%, was counted after the polls had closed into the next day(s) because it was absentee/by mail. He had a larger reservoir of his voters to draw on than did Trump, whose post-election day reservoir was only 34% of his vote.
There were doubtless more fraudulent votes cast this election because so many of the ballots were absentee/by mail, and so many more people voted and voted this way. The problem has been proving it, and proving it was large enough to flip places like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Absentee/by mail ballots typically post high rejection rates for voter noncompliance reasons: failure to sign the envelope, failure to return it on time, failure to mark the ballot correctly, failure of the signature to match the record, failure to show a return address matching the file, and much more. These rates typically exceed 1%, often by quite a lot. The problem is rejection rates in this election are coming in much lower than 1%, which, contrary to the Democrats, is a huge red flag.
Investigation of these problems should have been Team Trump's number one objective in challenging this election. Unfortunately and characteristically it got side-tracked by craziness and laziness, the hallmarks of the Trump era. Pieces of paper are evidence. Fanciful theories using computer "data" are not. Courts are not interested in jeopardizing their claim to impartiality by facilitating fishing expeditions for one political party against another. Either you've got the goods, or you don't.
It's sad Trump is such an incompetent and wasn't ready for this, but it is what it is. All the "shouldas wouldas and couldas" in the world ain't gonna fix it.
Buh-bye.
US Coronavirus update through 12/12/20
Deaths per day from COVID by state since Jan 22 through Saturday 12/12/20:
NY 122
TX 80
FL 69
CA 65
NJ 62
IL 47
PA 44
MI 40
MA 36
GA 34
OH 27
LA, IN 24
AZ 23
NC 20
CT, TN 19
MD 18
SC, MO 17
VA, MN 16
MS, AL 15
CO, WI 14
AR, IA 11
WA, NV, KY 9.
Deaths per day from COVID monthly have leapt from 763 in October to 1,250 in November to 2,496 in the first twelve days of December. If the current December rate per day is sustained it will top April's 1,961 and May's 1,330.
Current hospitalizations for COVID were approximately 30k at the beginning of October, 47k at the end of October, 92k at the end of November, and at a new high of 108,487 on 12/12.
Mask-wearing and social distancing, where practised, have been insufficient by themselves to stop transmission since the lockdowns, where implemented, have been lifted. The entire US strategy hasn't been worthy of the name under Trump, and it won't be under Biden, either.
What was required was: temporary lockdowns to slow the spread, and then a permanent regime after opening of 1) mask-wearing, 2) social distancing, 3) universal testing, 4) isolation of the infected, and 5) tracing the contacts of the infected, followed by testing, isolation and tracing for an indefinite period until transmission became minimal and a vaccine became available.
This was the program enunciated by Dr Michael J Ryan of the World Health Organization on March 13. It has hardly been followed but for a few countries. And it's a scandal that the American CDC and NIH haven't insisted on this.
COVID-19 remains the 3rd leading cause of death in the US behind heart disease and cancer.
The compound daily growth rate for COVID deaths measured weekly is threatening to return to spring levels:
Climate Updates for KGRR: October and November 2020
October 2020 Climate Update for KGRR
Max T 79, Mean 79
Min T 25, Mean 28
Av T 48, Mean 51.3
Rain 2.67, Mean 3.03
Snow Tr, Mean 0.4
Heating Degree Days 527, Mean 424
Cooling Degree Days 0, Mean 9
Cooling Degree Days to date 829, Mean 700
November 2020 Climate Update for KGRR
Max T 77, Mean 66
Min T 22, Mean 17
Av T 44.3, Mean 39.1
Rain 2.27, Mean 2.84
Snow 0.4, Mean 6.3
Heating Degree Days 614, Mean 772
Cooling Degree Days 3, Mean 0
Cooling Degree Days to date 832, Mean 700
Average Temperature Year to date 51.7, Mean to date 50: 2020 average temperature is running 3.4% above the mean.
Peak average annual temperature since 1898 occurred in 2012 at 52.8 degrees F, 9.5% above the mean average annual temperature of 48.2.
So it's been warmer than normal in 2020 to date, but nothing record-setting.
Grand Rapids, MI is forecast to receive its first sub 20 degree F temperatures of the season this week.
Thursday, December 10, 2020
US COVID deaths blew right through the 290k mark this morning in the Johns Hopkins data
Deaths were approximately 289.5k early this morning, but blew right through that in short order to get almost to 292k tonight.
107,258 are currently hospitalized.
Wednesday, December 9, 2020
The difference between 47.6% of population with full time jobs in Nov 2020 and 52% is 11.5 million
Think of each of those 11.5 million full-time units forming a household, buying a house, buying a car, buying a washing machine, raising some kids, paying taxes for good schools to which to send them, etc.
That's what's missing.
Sad!
Just a reminder that the harrowing nature of full time employment in the United States hasn't changed much as of Nov 2020
As a percentage of population, full time in Nov 2020 remains in the basement digging holes at 47.6%, reminiscent of the historic lows pre-Reagan and the double Reagan recessions of the early 1980s.
Full-time never recovered after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, if you mean a return to pre-GFC1 levels. Under Obama and continuing under Trump full time after eight long years finally clawed its way up to 50.4% in 2019 on an average annual basis, only to be felled again by a lousing, stinking virus.
But don't make the mistake of blaming the virus. Conditions were long too weak to support pre-GFC1 levels of full time employment. Contrast this with the vigor of the Reagan/Bush surge in which full time went from 47.3% to 52.2% in just six years.
That missing vigor is the irreducible fact of the present economic malaise now in its twelfth year which very few acknowledge let alone understand.
Tuesday, December 8, 2020
It's remarkable that this video from 2018 documenting Biden's self-confessed 2016 malfeasance in office to this day has fewer than 1 million views
Congress allocated the spending Biden threatened, unlawfully, to withhold, but Trump became the bad guy and Biden was elected instead of Trump.
Simply amazing.
Monday, December 7, 2020
Saturday, December 5, 2020
US COVID deaths crossed the 280k mark today in the Johns Hopkins data
Current hospitalizations through yesterday were 101,276 at covidtracking.com
Looks like Brad Parscale, formerly of the Trump Campaign, and Anita Dunn of the Biden Campaign were on the exact same page in Election 2020
As was Chris Irons of QTR Research on Feb 26, here.
This isn't rocket science. This isn't "mastermind" level stuff. It didn't take a genius to predict that Trump would lose to a virus. All it took was paying attention and being honest.
From an important story with an hyperbolic title by Edward-Isaac Dovere for The Atlantic, "The Mastermind Behind Biden’s No-Drama Approach to Trump", here:
' [M]any Democrats stressed over the campaign’s decision to ignore most of Trump’s daily diversions in favor of focusing on the coronavirus pandemic. Dunn’s plan, and Biden’s, ended with a win. ... “Those of us who had worked in the White House, and Joe Biden, who had been vice president of the United States, had a much better understanding of why the Trump strategy that everyone was panicked about, the daily press conferences, would not work unless they actually did something” about the pandemic, Dunn said. “All those people who were saying, ‘Oh my gosh, he’s doing daily press briefings. He’s all over. He’s dominating,’ were missing the bigger point, which is unless he actually does something to deal with what is a genuine catastrophe, then it doesn’t matter how many press briefings he does.” '
Wednesday, December 2, 2020
Attorney General Barr appoints John Durham special counsel to continue criminal inquiry into FBI post-Trump
Democrats are already fuming.
Reported here:
"An order making Durham special counsel, which was revealed on Tuesday, provides the federal prosecutor further protection against the prospect of President-elect Joe Biden trying to shut down the criminal inquiry into the origins and conduct of the FBI's investigation."
Former Trump Campaign manager Brad Parscale says Trump lost in the suburbs because he went with opening the economy instead of public empathy over COVID fears
I agree.
His basic perception about the public was right. They were, and are, afraid.
Whether they should have been or should be now is irrelevant. They were, and Trump failed to play to that fear, which is exactly what Biden did.
About 16 minutes in.
Tuesday, December 1, 2020
US COVID deaths hit 270k in the Johns Hopkins data to begin the month of December
Current hospitalizations on Dec 1 soared to 98,691.
Total hospitalized in Nov soared to ~95k from ~67k in Oct.
These hospitalization levels are way above the 59k high water marks established in April and July.
About 1,250 people died of COVID everyday in Nov compared with 763 per day in Oct, clocking in at third worst month yet for deaths. The Oct level was the lowest level so far since the peak in April at 1,961. The May level was second highest at 1,330 deaths per day on average.
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