Monday, February 3, 2020

"The current hysteria about coronavirus is irrational"

I thought all hysterias were irrational, but OK.

From the story:

In contrast, other flu viruses in circulation in the U.S. last year took over 34,000 lives, and they are taking a similar toll this year. Yet unlike coronavirus and SARS, these flu viruses have had zero impact on the stock market. This suggests the current hysteria developing about coronavirus is irrational.

Smdh over "impact on the stock market" as a barometer, but let's move on.

34k deaths from flu last year in the US, which would aggregate at the peaks in February, December, March and January in that order on average, would mean average deaths per day over those 121 days of about 280 per day, but only at the extreme. Obviously, not everyone who died of flu that season died in those peak months.

The worst flu season in decades in the US was 2017-18 with roughly 80,000 deaths, according to WaPo. The worst of it lasted 19 weeks. All the deaths obviously didn't occur in those 19 weeks either, but had they the rate would have been 600 per day.

The extreme being claimed in Wuhan is about 700 per day due to coronavirus.

With 200 per day being normal non-epidemic-related-deaths for any given day in Wuhan, there's anecdotal "evidence" of an extra 500 per day.

Such claims may seem hysterical or irrational to some, but they are not.

They are only extreme.