June 2016 is over and the data are in.
From 1892 Grand Rapids, Michigan, has just experienced its third warmest winter ever in terms of heating degree days for the winter measuring season ending in June. When we have fewer heating degree days here up north that means lower demand for heat during the typical eight month long period when heating is needed.
Mean heating degree days for the season from the beginning of the record to date now average 6713, but in 2015-16 Grand Rapids logged just 5617, a whopping 1096 below the long term mean, about 16.3% fewer heating degree days than normal. In my case that translated into a natural gas consumption reduction of about 10% compared with most winters I have experienced.
The warmest winter on record was actually quite recent and unrelated to an El Nino as now. In 2011-12 just 5253 heating degree days were logged in Grand Rapids. Second place belongs to the long ago winter of 1920-21, with 5520 heating degree days.
At the same time that we experienced these warmer conditions snowfall for the season came in only 5.6 inches lower than the long term mean of 66.7, at 61.1 inches.
Last November I predicted much less snow at 47.85 inches and many more heating degree days at 6148, both representing averages of previous observations in Grand Rapids during Very Strong El Nino periods in 1982-83 and 1997-98. But we were this season much snowier and warmer than those averages predicted.
Turning to the year to date categories, rainfall is actually running 1.41 inches above the mean to date of 16.54 inches, at 17.95. This is despite the extremely dry conditions in June which have left our lawns brown.
The cumulative average temperature year to date is running a total of 18.6 degrees F above the long term mean for the six months to date. That's about one tenth of a degree above normal per day to date.
The current Very Strong El Nino after fourteen months is averaging 1.5 monthly on the index. June data is not yet available. The most recent previous Very Strong El Nino averaged 1.56 monthly over thirteen months, in 1997-98.
