Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Another Observer Notices The Broken Link Between The Monetary Base And Markets

Kopin Tan, who otherwise believes the Fed has been juicing markets, for Barron's, here:


"[W]hile the Fed tripled its balance sheet, not all that money gushed through to the real economy—one reason why inflation is just 2%—as banks funneled the money to mend their balance sheets, corporations hoarded cash, and Americans paid off loans and saved more.

"Between 1960 and 1999, ratcheting up the supply of money often directly lifted stock prices. In the 1970s, for instance, stocks' annual returns were 70% correlated to the growth in money supply. But that link has recently broken down: year-over-year growth in money supply slowed in 2009 and 2012, but stocks rallied in both of those years."