The projection (here) back in the second week of April was that 124 electoral college votes were up for grabs in 9 states, with Obama at 233 and the Republicans at 181, who needed at the time 70 percent of the remaining electoral college votes to win.
Today the picture (here) shows the toss-ups reduced to 110 (still in 9 states, though a different mix), Obama up slightly to 237, and Romney up from 181 to 191, who now needs to win almost 72 percent of the remaining toss-up electoral college votes to win, according to the analysis.
In 2008 John McCain lost to Barack Obama because McCain lost in George Bush's red states of Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia (112 electoral college votes) by 1.4 million votes.
A Southern/Western strategy concentrating on Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would still leave Romney 7 electoral college votes short of 270 if he wins the currently projected 191 in addition.
Romney losing Florida would necessitate winning the 191 plus every one of the states in the toss-up category today, including New Hampshire, hence the recent Medicare emphasis in Florida where many seniors live.
An Eastern Time Zone strategy winning Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio in addition to the 191 would give Romney exactly 270.
