Sunday, August 31, 2025
Nope, it's already peaked
Every other surge made it into high or very high range, but not this one.
That's good news.
COVID CASES SPIKING... AGAIN...
The ever reliable UK Express reports a civilian Ukrainian ship near Odessa was "blown up" when it wasn't
Ukrainian civilian ship blown up by 'unidentified explosive device' in Black Sea
Ukraine has revealed a civilian ship was blown up by an unidentified explosive device in the Black Sea, off the coast of Odesa. ...
The ship, which has not been named, sustained only minor damage and was able to continue sailing under its own power. ...
Anyway, here's a picture of the ship:
The Grauniad wants you to worry about a far-right civil war in the United States employing drones because of one guy on Substack found by one analyst with a vivid imagination
... the far-right American terrorist movement sees off-the-shelf or home-built first-person viewer (FPV) drones as a critical weapon in their own future war against the US government ...
... talk is commonplace of how these cheap drones are revolutionizing current wars and will be the critical tools of a so-called second civil war ...
... Multiple sources told the Guardian that the FBI has major concerns about the accelerationist neo-Nazi sect on the far right – one calling for an insurgency against the US government – and other ultra-violent actors in the same ideological space, eyeing the use of FPV drones for domestic attacks. ...
... evidence has emerged of military-trained neo-Nazis with relevant skillsets having pinpointed the drones as a potential tool ...
... [Joshua] Fisher-Birch first spotted the Substack and vouched for its credibility. According to him, the writer’s alleged background is not only “significant” but “violent white supremacist groups would find his drone experience to be useful”. ...
Saturday, August 30, 2025
Real Clear Politics rewrites headlines to make Trump look better
Most Trump tariffs are not legal, US appeals court rules lol.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules/ar-AA1LvGU7
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules-2025-08-30/
Friday, August 29, 2025
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit isn't buying Trump's emergency argument for his tariffs because he's taxing everything from nearly every country
Most Trump tariffs ruled illegal by appeals court, dealing major blow to trade policy
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, striking a massive blow to the core of his aggressive trade policy.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit held in a 7-4 ruling that the law Trump invoked when he granted his most expansive tariffs — including his “reciprocal” tariffs — does not actually grant him the power to impose those levies.
“The core Congressional power to impose taxes such as tariffs is vested exclusively in the legislative branch by the Constitution,” the court said. “Tariffs are a core Congressional power.”
The appellate court paused its ruling from taking effect until Oct. 14, in order to give the Trump administration time to ask the Supreme Court to reverse the decision. ...
In Friday’s ruling, the court found that the challenged tariffs exceeded Trump’s authority under IEEPA.
“Both the Trafficking Tariffs and the Reciprocal Tariffs are unbounded in scope, amount, and duration,” the majority ruled.
“These tariffs apply to nearly all articles imported into the United States (and, in the case of the Reciprocal Tariffs, apply to almost all countries), impose high rates which are ever-changing and exceed those set out in the [U.S. tariff system], and are not limited in duration.” ...
Let's check in on real return from stocks since and before the August 2000 high to see what a real bull market looks like
$SPX since August 2000 through July 2025: 5.24% real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested.
And the 24 years, 11 months before that to August 2000?
10.90%.
108% better.
IYKYK.
Let's check in on the S&P 500 version of the Buffett Indicator
The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June 2025.
Nominal GDP in 2Q2025 from the second estimate yesterday was $30.3539 trillion.
The first divided by the second yields 198.65, 145.25% elevated above the long-term median of 81.
Off the chart.
Where angels fear to tread.
Population adjusted vehicle miles traveled in the first half of 2025 is lower than at the bottom of the Obama travel depression in 1H2014
Ain't got no where to go, I guess, with all that new delivery availability spawned by the pandemic.
Speaking of gaslighting, Kremlin Karoline wants you to think gasoline wasn't cheaper as recently as last December
Don't gaslight around gasoline, dearie.
Gaslighting: Spot gold to $3,433.99, spot silver to $39.14 on persistent core inflation of 2.77% average yoy for the last 18 months, 85% higher than the old normal, not on rate cut probability
They want a rate cut so bad, everything points to one, including what doesn't.
Gold on track for best month in four as inflation data bolsters rate cut bets
... Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,433.99 per ounce. Bullion has gained 4.4% in August so far. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,497.30. ...
Spot silver added 0.2% to $39.14 per ounce and gained for the fourth straight month. ...
PM Update:
... Spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,447.09 per ounce. ... Spot silver added 2.1% to $39.89 per ounce ...
Trump's federal government spending cuts are non-existent: We're on track to blow $7.3 trillion as expected
The Elon Musk-DOGE spending cut affair was pure theatre.
When I said we spend $20 billion a day I wasn't kidding.
OK, it's only $19.869794 billion a day.
Meanwhile revenues are expected to fall short by $4.842671 billion PER DAY in 2025.
The core pce inflation rate was 48% lower 2009-2020 than it was in July 2025
The July 2025 yoy rate of core pce inflation, the Fed's key measure, rose to 2.877%, the third increase in the rate since April.
The average rate 2009-2020 was 1.5%.
Averaging 2.77% for the last year and a half is not progress.
Thursday, August 28, 2025
Can you spot the GDP?
The real GDP report is out and it looks better than a month ago: +3.3% seasonally-adjusted annual rate for the second estimate for 2Q2025, instead of +3.0% in the first estimate.
But the big picture changes only microscopically.
From the second quarter of 2017, the year when Trump's tax reform became law on December 22nd, until now real GDP has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.466%, instead of 2.456% last month. For the seventy years before that, the compound annual rate of growth was 3.182%.
Trump's so-called pro-growth tax reform falls short of the previous seventy years this month by 22.5% vs. by 22.8% last month.
Now made permanent as of the Fourth of July, or so they say, the Trump tax reform is likely to continue to, shall we say, weigh on things.
The problem remains the lingering after effects of the Great Recession, the Great Financial Crisis, the Housing Bubble, whatever you want to call it.
The Trump tax reform of 2017 didn't do anything to address that meaningfully, just as Obama never addressed it meaningfully, nor Biden.
The rupture with the past occasioned by 2008 is the elephant in the living room, and the Uniparty just pretends it isn't there.
From 2Q2008 to 2Q2025, the compound annual rate of real GDP growth has been 1.995% vs. 1.990% last month, vs. 3.421% for the sixty-one years prior to that, starting in 2Q1947.
America is still 41.68% behind that this month vs. 41.8% behind that last month.
It's . . . depressing.
Under Joe Biden we had a proposal to tamper with the Supreme Court, under Donald Trump we have an actual attempt to tamper with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee
Trump's firing of Lisa Cook is the actual power grab we only feared from Joe Biden.
How Trump could give the Fed a MAGA makeover:
... Fed watchers say a Trump-appointed majority on the Fed Board could then exert greater influence over future decisions on interest rates by using a little-known process.
While it’s typically a routine event that gets little attention, every five years the Fed Board must approve the new terms of regional Fed presidents, who vote on a rotational basis on interest rates.
That event is coming up soon, with the terms of all 12 regional Fed presidents scheduled to expire – simultaneously – at the end of February.
That means, in theory, a Trump-nominated Fed Board could reject regional presidents, for whatever reason they wish, or no reason at all.
“The President could push his majority to reject reserve bank presidents unless they agree to back lower rates and are comfortable with more White House influence over monetary policy,” Jaret Seiberg, financial services policy analyst at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note to clients this week. “That would give Trump a more cooperative FOMC,” he wrote, referring to the Fed’s rate-setting committee.
While the Fed chair gets all the attention, decisions on interest rates are voted on by all 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The committee consists of the seven members of the Fed Board, as well as five regional Fed presidents: the New York Fed president and four rotating regional presidents. ...
Wednesday, August 27, 2025
A victory for lunch your way lol
... The result in Dunn’s case is the second time in three days that a
grand jury has rejected an indictment request by the office of U.S.
Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the former Fox News host appointed by Trump.
On Monday, Pirro’s office told a judge in a separate criminal case that “an Indictment has not been returned” after “a third grand jury returned a no true bill.” ...
Pattern development.
Brooke Rollins, Trump's Secretary of Agriculture, says Trump is America's third revolution
No amount of revolution is ever enough for the odious Uniparty.
Trump's women are the craziest women, the bosom pals of tyrants since at least Aristotle.
Speaking of The Worker, what's old and stupid is new again at The Department of Labor
A fatal notion of things, half false & half stupid, began to pervade educated & semi-educated minds: "the worker" becomes the real person, the real nation, the meaning & aim of history, politics, public care ... he is made the saint, the idol, of the age.
The fact that all men work, and moreover that others - the inventor,
the engineer, and organizer - do more, and more important, work is
forgotten.
No one any longer dares to bring forward the class or quality
of his achievement as a gauge of its value. Only work measured in hours
now counts as labour. And the "worker," with all this, is the poor
unfortunate one, disinherited, starving, exploited. The words "care" and
"distress" are applied to him alone.
No one has a thought left for the
countryman's less fertile strips of land, his bad harvests, his losses
by hail and frost, his anxiety over the sale of his produce; or for the
wretched existence of poor craftsmen in strongly industrialized areas,
the tragedies of small tradesmen, fishermen on the high seas, inventors,
doctors, who have to struggle amid alarms and dangers for each bite of
daily bread and go down in their thousands unheeded.
"The worker" alone
receives sympathy. He alone is supported, cared for, insured. What is
more, he is made the saint, the idol, of the age. The world revolves
round him. He is the focus of the economic system and the nurseling of
politics.
Everybody's existence hinges on him; the majority of the
nation are there to serve him. The dull lump of a peasant, the lazy
official, the swindling tradesman, are legitimate targets for mirth, not
to mention judges, officers, and heads of businesses, who are the
popular objects of ill-natured jest; but no one would dare to pour the
same scorn on "the working man."
All the rest are idlers, egoists; he is
the one exception. The whole middle class swings the censer before this
phantom. No matter what one's own achievements in life may be, one must
fall on one's knees before him. His being stands above all criticism.
-- Oswald Spengler
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