Sunday, January 2, 2022

COVID-19 in the USA by the numbers: About as infectious as the flu, but 10-13 times more deadly in the first two years of the pandemic

Deaths 2020:  346,050
Deaths 2021:  477,867
 
Cases 2020: 20.0m
Cases 2021: 34.7m
 
Case fatality rate 2020: 1.73%
Case fatality rate 2021: 1.38%
 
Case prevalence 2020:   6.1% of 328m population
Case prevalence 2021: 10.4% of 332m population
 
Typical annual prevalence of influenza: 8% of population (9.2% in the previous decade)
Typical annual deaths from influenza: 36,000

Alpha and Delta have produced 22% more cases in 2021 in the USA but 20% fewer deaths

Alpha dominated in the US during April, May, and June. Delta has dominated since July 1.
 
Alpha and Delta cases in the US, April through December 2021: 24.2 million
US COVID-19 cases April through December 2020: 19.8 million
 
Alpha and Delta deaths in the US, April through December 2021: 272,259
US COVID-19 deaths April through December 2020: 341,746

The data is consistent with the theory that viruses mutate to become more infectious at the expense of lethality.

All indications so far indicate that this will also continue to be the case with Omicron.
 

Axios finally updated its Variant Tracker: So far "Delta" still dominates in the US, with Omicron most prevalent in Louisiana at just shy of 27%

Check it out here.

Politico reported last week that the CDC had to climb down about its estimate of the prevalence of Omicron in the US.
 
It had originally estimated prevalence of 73.2% in the US on Dec 18, but revised that down to just 22.5%.
 
Quite the doozy, that.
 
This was very amusing coming as it did with all the other messaging shifts last week:

Ditch the cloth masks for N95s;

Walensky at CDC claiming suddenly that PCR tests are unreliable;

You need only 5 days of quarantine, not ten, because, you know, Omicron is different;

Mr. I'm Going to Shut Down the Virus blurting out that there's no federal solution;

And Fauci suddenly admitting the distinction between being admitted to hospital for Covid as opposed to just with it.

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Omicron may be spreading like wildfire, but deaths per million globally are lower now, a month after its discovery, than they were in mid-October

 


Sociologist writing for TIME Magazine caricatures First Baptist Church, Dallas, Texas, but doesn't interview a single actual member of the church

 Attending the event in person allowed me to appreciate how central Trump remains to white evangelicalism. ...

Standing in line 2.5 hours before the event, I chatted with a group of five elderly women who all came together. All were committed churchgoers in the Dallas area, but none were members at First Baptist. ...

There was Bill, a repairman who had taken public transportation to get to First Baptist. He was not a member either, but had always been a huge fan of Trump and was eager to see him in person. ...

And there was Carlos. Like Bill, Carlos was visiting First Baptist from elsewhere in the city along with a friend. ...

Trump’s appeal Sunday morning extends far beyond the First Baptist faithful. Evangelical visitors from around the city had come to cheer for their President. They were convinced he’d been treated unfairly. And they pined to see him back in office. ...

For the vast majority of white evangelicals in the U.S., like those visiting First Baptist Dallas on Sunday, Trump is still their warrior. ... over two-thirds of white evangelicals felt the 2020 election had been stolen from Trump.

More.

This guy should get out more and document the adulation directed at Democrats visiting America's black churches and insinuate in a column about how 92% of the nation's blacks voted for Joe Biden in 2020 because they're duped by religion or something.

Monday, December 27, 2021

Christmas cheer is being able to regift the bad thing the Easter bunny left you

 


Biden promised to shut down the virus, now says there's no federal solution

 Which is even more odd since he has mandated vaccines for the employees of large companies.

The guy is obviously too old upstairs for the job.

Story.

"There is no federal solution. This gets solved at the state level," Biden responded, before mentioning another Republican governor.

 



Saturday, December 25, 2021

John Tamny remains as confused as a thinker and as obtuse as a writer as he has ever been

John Tamny has made some progress, however.

He now admits that some of his views are "fringe".

Which is amusing, since we've known that since Russell Kirk demonstrated long ago how the libertarians have always been "chirping sectarians".

A case in point of the continuing confusion:

Tamny expresses fawning admiration for George Will's latest collection of his columns, which opens asserting the priority of the study of history.

But Tamny later avers without the slightest awareness of self-contradiction that "The talented people, the unequal people, have a tendency to run from the present and past."

Nostalgia is "dangerous".

Do make up your mind for once, John.

The seemingly interminable review is here.

Friday, December 24, 2021

Tennessee is the latest state to report a massive backlog of COVID-19 deaths, over 2,000 yesterday, badly skewing the curve

 Tennessee joins Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas in the last three months making big backfills, distorting the graphs we try to make.







Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Because our better selves are optimists, we're musing today that COVID-19 will soon be a thing of the past, along with Donald Trump, his warp speed vaccines, and that clown Joe Biden



Christmas wishes do come true. You only have to believe.

US Army's Walter Reed Army Institute of Research near Silver Spring, MD, announces single shot Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine

 Phase 1 human trials have been completed on non-vaccinated, never infected individuals, with Phases 2 and 3 forthcoming on vaccinated or previously sick people. 

From the story:

Within weeks, scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research expect to announce that they have developed a vaccine that is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin viruses that have killed millions of people worldwide. 

Merry Christmas.

FDA finally grants emergency use authorization to Pfizer's Paxlovid, a protease inhibitor which may dramatically reduce hospitalizations for people diagnosed with COVID-19

 From the story:

The U.S. has purchased 10 million courses of Pfizer’s treatment, Paxlovid, in a $5 billion deal. President Joe Biden said in November that his administration is working to ensure that the treatments are free and accessible. Biden said last month that delivery would start by the New Year and continue through 2022.  

Merry Christmas.

Another woke general crawls out from under his retirement rock, wants FOX News banned from all US military bases

 Paul D. Eaton, here.

Hillary supporter, critic of Bush 43's Iraq War.

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Michael Anton doesn't have a clue about the immense value of the periphery


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taiwan is "peripheral" to our interests, Michael Anton says over and over again, here.

Well then, so is Hawaii.

Keep thinking like that and eventually Catalina Island becomes peripheral, too.

If you want to legitimize China's nine-dash line, something he never mentions, giving up Taiwan is the fastest way to do it. 

There is MUCH more at stake than Taiwan's relative freedom and independence. All of southeast Asia is at risk if China retakes Taiwan.

The answer isn't to accept the fact, as Anton does, that our Navy is rotten to the core and unable to defend Taiwan. The answer is to reform the Navy before it's too late.

If the Chicoms kill all our woke Navy in a battle over Taiwan, that wouldn't be the start we want, but it would be a start to the reform we most need.