Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Ted Cruz wins the lesbian vote in Wisconsin, slows Trump momentum by less than 4%

On the most generous interpretation of the delegate allocation, Trump goes from needing 488 additional delegates before Wisconsin to needing 482 now. This assumes he still gets 12 more from foot-dragging Missouri and 3 in Wisconsin not yet shown (total 6) for a total of 755 vs. 749. He goes from needing 53.2% of remaining delegates to needing 55.2%, the two-point difference representing a slowdown in momentum of not quite 3.8%.

Using the same assumptions, Cruz goes from needing 762 before Wisconsin to needing 720 now, or from needing 83% of available delegates before to needing 82.5% now. That's not even a 1% pick-up in speed.

Going forward, Trump momentum is bound to pick-up as the race heads east to Trump's backyard, where Cruz will have trouble attracting votes from New York values voters.

Kasich, however, could continue to be a problem for Trump in the more liberal east, but interestingly he came in a distant third everywhere in Wisconsin and won nothing. Even in liberal congressional district 2, which includes Madison and had Tammy Baldwin as its Democrat representative, Kasich came in a distant third.

Cruz narrowly bested Trump in CD-2 by fewer than 2900 votes.


Tuesday, April 5, 2016

With 34% of precincts reporting, 2016 Wisconsin GOP presidential primary turnout already exceeds total in 2008


Wisconsin Republicans are totally in the tank for a path to legalization, which is lyin' Ted Cruz' true position, also Gov. Walker's

From the exit polling, here:

More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it’s topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.

If Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin tonight, it'll be nothing more than a dead cat bounce

Ted Cruz' momentum collapsed by 44% in March.

He was dead weeks ago. He just doesn't know it yet.

Libertarian Club for Growth really did hit up Trump for $1 million in June 2015, now it spends millions attacking him

So, Michelle Field's mom is Honduran born and runs a nonprofit for illegal aliens

Michelle Fields may have a very strong and until now secret motive to try to bring down Trump.

Rush says Trump's already trying to change the subject from his impending loss today to new immigration plan details

What rubbish. That must be the OxyContin talkin'.

Trump's detailed proposals have been out there since August 2015, on his website.

Hey Wisconsin, Make America Red Again!


Hillary lost to Obama in Wisconsin in 2008 by 193,000 votes in the Democrat presidential primary: Can she do it again?!

Total turnout in the Democrat presidential primary in 2008 was 1.11 million.

The question this year is whether Bernie Sanders will drive Democrat turnout there to a similar conclusion, or will Democrats cross over in large numbers to vote for Trump. The primary is open.

It would seem Sanders' natural voters are not the working class, in which case Democrats crossing over for Trump would come from Hillary's voters. It could be both: enthusiasm for Bernie among the young and far left boosting his turnout, and enthusiasm for Trump from the blue collars boosting Trump's. In which case Hillary and Cruz might be disappointed today in Wisconsin.

Fewer than 403,000 votes were cast in the Republican presidential primary in 2008, which was won by McCain with 225,000 votes. Huckabee ran second, and won in the western and central part of the state where Trump is supposed to be strong in 2016. Pretty odd. The ARG poll had picked McCain to win Wisconsin by 8, who won it by 17.8. This time around ARG is picking Trump by 10 against six recent polls showing Cruz by an average of 6.5.

ARG is also showing Hillary by 1 as polls open this morning. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Sanders ahead by 2.6.

Long lines of enthusiastic Wisconsinites at all Trump venues in recent days, despite the gaffes which upset polite society political correctness, argue for a stronger showing by Trump today than the consensus would suggest.

Monday, April 4, 2016

Delegate race update: Trump needs 53.76% of 930 available to win, Cruz 81.94%

Trump's delegate total tonight moves up to 737, Cruz' to 475.

Kasich needs 117.63% of the available delegates to win, in other words, MORE THAN ARE AVAILABLE.

Conservative talk radio is still lying to you: Ted Cruz' momentum steadily eroded in March by 44%

Ted Cruz ended the first week of March needing 57% of remaining delegates to get to 1237.

By March 10th he needed 61%.

By March 18th 77%.

As of March 23rd he needs 82% of remaining delegates to win.

The 25-point increase in his required future performance over three weeks represents a 44% slowdown in his momentum from the beginning of the month.

The voters are wasting their votes on Ted, as they are on Kasich.

Ted Cruz should suspend his campaign and begin negotiations with Trump. John Kasich should just drop out.

For the good of the party, and the country.


ARG Inc. poll got Michigan massively wrong, shows Trump +10 in Wisconsin tomorrow

The ARG poll had Kasich winning Michigan by 2 when Trump won it by 11.6.

Otherwise . . .

ARG has been pretty good this season.

It had Trump by 16 in NH. Actual: 19.5.

It had Trump by 12 in SC. Actual: 10.0.

It had Cruz by 1 in TX. Actual: 17.1. OK, way off but at least it got the winner right!

It had Trump by 25 in FL. Actual: 18.8.

It had Kasich by 6 in OH. Actual: 11.1.

Conservative talk radio in Wisconsin has been united for months in stopping Donald Trump, fawning over Ted Cruz

Which is why the voters in Wisconsin are unaware of Ted Cruz' flips on trade and immigration.

From the story here:

The Wisconsin talk radio conglomerate, which rallied conservative voters to help Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in four years, has now set its sights on stopping Mr. Trump by deprecating the delegate leader and elevating Mr. Cruz. ...

The most popular conservative talk show hosts here — Mr. Sykes, Jeff Wagner of WTMJ, and Mark Belling, Vicki McKenna and Jay Weber of WISN — are united in their disdain for Mr. Trump, with Jerry Bader, a radio personality at WTAQ in Green Bay, rounding out the group.

“The thing that’s been unique in this presidential race is, for some reason, the three who work here — Jay, Vicki and myself — and our competitors, Charlie and Jeff Wagner, all seem to despise Trump,” Mr. Belling said in an interview. “We all just kind of came to this conclusion independently. I think it’s just that we’re not as stupid as some of the people that are falling for Trump’s crap.”

Rush is reading from this right now on air: It must be the OxyContin part that finally ticked Rush off

Materialist Kevin Williamson for National Review, here:

The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale [Trump] communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. Forget all your cheap theatrical Bruce Springsteen crap. Forget your sanctimony about struggling Rust Belt factory towns and your conspiracy theories about the wily Orientals stealing our jobs. Forget your goddamned gypsum, and, if he has a problem with that, forget Ed Burke, too. The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin. What they need isn’t analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul.

Ted Cruz brags about his "poison pill" amendments to Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, says higher Gang of 8 bill cap on H-1B visas was "not nearly high enough"

Here: "It's my hope to put in place common sense immigration reform".

Ken Blackwell of Club For Growth is delusional: 47% of Trump's supporters won't vote for Cruz if he's given the nomination by the convention

There's that number again, 47%.

Of Trump's popular vote to date, that's only 3.7 million Trump voters rebelling against the Republicans.

Remember Rush's Limbaugh's "4 million stayed home in 2012"?

Ken Blackwell, quoted here:

“As far as my objective of forcing this into a contested convention, I feel very optimistic about it," said Ken Blackwell, the former Ohio secretary of state who is working with a pair of anti-Trump groups, including Our Principles PAC, which paid for the Wisconsin billboards. ...

Blackwell said he wasn't concerned about a Cruz convention victory splitting the party, as long as the process was “transparent.” He also said the party could afford to alienate new voters Trump is bringing to the party—Blackwell referred to them as “undocumented Republicans”—because the traditional base would be motivated to stop Clinton.

“Folks will get over it,” Blackwell said. “The prospects of Hillary Clinton naming a liberal justice to the Supreme Court, expanding our welfare state and furthering our incompetence in international affairs will drive out the old base that didn't come out for Romney.”



Monmouth poll finds 54% of Republicans say Trump should be nominee even without the necessary 1,237 delegates


"A majority of all Republican voters (54%) say that the party should get behind Trump as the nominee if he has the most delegates but not enough for a first round ballot victory. Another 34% would like to see the convention nominate someone else in this case."


Germany has a bigger "NPR" problem than we do

From the story here:

. . . the [ironic] message of the video appears to be that critics of multiculturalism must be shut down.

Regardless of equipment, or radio and television usage, all households in Germany must pay a blanket fee of €215.76 per annum which funds public broadcasters ZDF and Deutschlandradio, as well as the nine regional broadcasters of the ARD network.


Now that fascist Trump has kids pledging to HIM never to take drugs or smoke cigs, and go easy on the alcohol

The horror.



Sunday, April 3, 2016

I wish Gavin McInnes would tell us what he really thinks about Michelle Fields


For the record, I think Michelle Fields is full of shit. I think Ben Terris placated her because she’s pretty and he’s a horny beta male. I think her bruises are self-inflicted. She didn’t look down at her arm in the video, which is the first thing you do when someone inflicts pain. I think she’s an attention whore who wants to dominate the news more than she wants to report it. She has a book coming out and all this hype is good for sales. She also has a history of histrionic complaints.

What, she's not a psycho?