The current very strong El Nino now averages 2.2 on the enso index for four consecutive measuring periods

The 1997-98 El Nino averaged 2.18 for five consecutive periods.

The 1982-83 El Nino averaged 2.1 for three consecutive periods.

The current El Nino is eleven periods long so far, averaging 1.49, the '97 was thirteen total averaging 1.56 and the '82 was fifteen total averaging 1.30, according to the most recent data.

The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one, but not as severe as 1997-98

The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one because there have been three consecutive measuring periods at 2.0 or greater on the Oceanic Nino Index: 2.0, 2.2 and 2.3.

This is the third very strong El Nino since 1950.

For the current three month measuring period it averages 2.166, in the middle between the similarly measured 1982-83 El Nino averaging 2.033, and the 1997-98 episode averaging 2.266.

The latter event was 11.5% more severe in the current three month period than the '82-'83 episode, and the current event is only 6.5% more severe.

The 1982 episode lasted fifteen months and averaged 1.3 on the index, the 1997 episode lasted thirteen months and averaged 1.56, and the current episode is now ten months in duration averaging 1.41.

Grand Rapids, MI begins 2016 with January 1.6 degrees F above normal on average at 26.0

Precipitation was 0.06 inches above normal, coming in at 2.15 inches.

Snowfall was 20.8 inches, 2.3 inches above the mean average of 18.5 for the month calculated going back to the beginning of the record. January is typically the snowiest month, followed by December at 15.9 and then February at 13.1.

Heating degree days were nearly normal for January at 1200 but cumulatively for the season are running 652 below normal, about 17.6% to date, thanks to the El Nino.

Despite the hype, the current El Nino hasn't matched 1997-98

AP Obama reports here:

"[I]nitial figures for October-November-December match the same time period in 1997 for the strongest El Nino."

Well, so what?

The current El Nino took 9 consecutive periods to get to a 2.3 in OND whereas the 1997-98 episode took 7 periods. More importantly, the latter averaged 1.6 for the whole series up to that point while the current El Nino is averaging a less strong 1.3 so far.

What really counts is consecutive periods measuring 2.0 or above. There were 5 in 1997-98 but only 2 so far in the current El Nino.

The headline "METEOROLOGISTS: 'DARTH NINO' TIES RECORD FOR STRONGEST SEEN" is total bullshit.

Grand Rapids MI December 2015 temperature anomaly was a staggering +9.9 degrees F

The December 2015 temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, was a staggering +9.9 degrees F, almost twice the size of the November anomaly of +5.4 degrees F.

Heading into December, the cumulative anomaly for 2015 through November stood at -11.7 degrees F, so thanks to El Nino the massive negative anomaly for 2015 is all but wiped out, erasing 92% of the 22.6 degrees of negative temperature anomaly in just four months.

The year 2015 thus finishes with a total anomaly of -1.8 degrees F. That's basically an undetectable .0049315 degrees F below normal on your average day in 2015.

Precipitation in December, unsurprisingly, was 33% above normal while snowfall was just 2.5 inches, 84% below normal. Mean snowfall for December going back to the beginning of the record is 15.7 inches. 

The 2015 El Nino to date in perspective

Using the Oceanic Nino Index here the strong to very strong El Ninos of the past can be summarized like this, showing the 2015 El Nino to be so far most like 1972-73:

1957-58, 16 consecutive months, 1.0 average severity

1965-66, 11 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity

1972-73, 12 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0)

1982-83, 15 consecutive months, 1.3 average severity (Three consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.1)

1997-98, 13 consecutive months, 1.6 average severity (Five consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.2)

2015 to date, 8 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0).

At this hour in Grand Rapids we have 38 degrees F and no snow whatsoever.

So far the El Nino has wiped out 48% of the Grands Rapids Michigan 2015 cumulative average negative temperature anomaly

The Grand Rapids Michigan November average temperature anomaly was a whopping +5.4 degrees F.

The cumulative anomaly for 2015 thus declines from -17.1 to -11.7 degrees F.

The El Nino so far has wiped out 10.9 degrees F of negative anomaly in September, October and November alone after seven of eight months of below normal temperatures which had taken the cumulative anomaly to -22.6 degrees F through August.

Snowfall in November was 51% of normal at just 3.5 inches.

Precipitation was 74% of normal at 2.61 inches.

An El Nino forecast for winter in Grand Rapids Michigan July 2015 - June 2016

Mean snowfall 66.7, predicting 47.85 inches

Mean heating degree days 6719, predicting 6148