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Friday, January 31, 2025
Core pce inflation in 2024 at 2.8% remains higher than at any point since 1992, progress down looks stalled since 1Q2024: The Fed's weak tea hasn't worked
Gold hits new record high of $2,800.99, climbs as high as $2,817.23 before the close
Gold prices scaled an all-time high on Friday, briefly touching the $2,800 mark, as market participants rushed to the safe-haven asset after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his tariff threats.
Spot gold steadied at $2,795.52 per ounce, after hitting a record peak of $2,800.99 earlier in the session. Prices rose more than 6% for the month and 1% for the week.
U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,820.10.
More.
PM Update:
Gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever on Friday, fuelled by a rush to safety on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which heightened concerns about global economic growth and inflationary pressures.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,822.90, trading at a premium to spot gold rates.
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Trash headline from Drudge says airline CEO blames US Army for last night's collision at DCA
I've watched the videos. He doesn't blame anybody. The helicopter collided with the passenger jet on its descent to land at Reagan National. We don't know why.
Meanwhile Trump is already shooting his mouth off about DEI under his predecessors being to blame when there are still bodies in the wreckage in the water.
Trump sucks. Drudge sucks.
You'd think a 71-year old guy like RFK Jr would know something about Medicare Parts A, B, C, and D, but you would be wrong
He is not qualified, on top of being a lunatic.
RFK Jr. stumbles over basics of Medicare, Medicaid during Senate confirmation hearings
When asked what Medicare Part A is for, Kennedy said it is “mainly for primary care or physicians.” Hassan clarified that it is coverage for seniors who receive inpatient care at hospitals.
Kennedy, when asked what Medicare Part B is, said it is “for physicians and doctors.” Part B is coverage for a range of medical services such as doctor visits, outpatient care, home health, certain medical supplies and preventive services.
When asked what Medicare Part C is for, Kennedy called it “the full menu of all the services – A, B, C and D.” Hassan noted that Part C is also known as Medicare Advantage, which are privately run plans contracted by Medicare. Those plans serve as an alternative to traditional Medicare plans.
Kennedy insisted that he “just explained the basics” of the program, but Hassan said she had to correct him on several things.
On the surface today's report of real gross domestic product is actually pretty good
The first estimate of real GDP for 4Q2024 and for annual 2024 has been reported here, 2.3% and 2.8% respectively.
On a big picture basis, the compound annual growth rate for real annual GDP 2020-2024 came in at 3.55% per annum, which compares very favorably with 1929-2007 at 3.45% per annum.
Unfortunately 2007-2024 is still wallowing at 1.957% per annum.
The country got over the Great Depression, but we're still working on the Great Recession.
Germany's Friedrich Merz angers ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel over harder line against "irregular migration" supported by AfD
Merz, determined to show his center-right Union bloc’s commitment to cutting irregular migration after a deadly knife attack last week by a rejected asylum-seeker, put a nonbinding motion to parliament calling for Germany to turn back many more migrants at its borders, although it might need AfD’s backing to pass. The measure squeaked through thanks to the far-right party’s support. ...
Merz took over the CDU after Merkel, a former rival, stepped down as chancellor in 2021. A more conservative figure, he has taken a more restrictive stance on migration. He said last week that Germany has had a “misguided asylum and immigration policy” for a decade — since Merkel allowed large numbers of migrants into the country. ...
AfD lawmakers celebrated after Wednesday’s vote while others sat stony-faced. Merz said he had sought a majority in the “democratic center” and he regretted that didn’t happen. But he also insisted that “a correct decision doesn’t become wrong because the wrong people approve it.”
On Friday, the [Christian Democratic] Union plans to call a vote on months-old proposed legislation that calls for an end to family reunions for migrants with a protection status that falls short of asylum. The measure also could pass with AfD votes, though it would need approval from parliament’s upper house, which is uncertain.
More.
Wednesday, January 29, 2025
Bill Kristol and leftists of his ilk are numbskulls on birthright citizenship, which 83% of the world eschews unlike us
... One of my critics on the “conservative” Left who once claimed to be an originalist illustrates the point. He says that the simple fact of birthright citizenship being “age-old” makes it somehow sacrosanct. There is not even a pretended appeal to the Constitution. Beyond this, someone with a philosophic education ought to know that it is a mistake to identify the old with the good. Even if it were not, his argument still fails on its own terms. Before the Wong Kim Ark decision of 1898, America did not have birthright citizenship. Hence the true “age-old” practice—going back to the beginning of the republic—is not to have it. If the old is the good, why is the younger birthright citizenship practice sacrosanct but the prior, and far-older practice of granting citizenship only to the children of citizens and lawful immigrants bad?
This, ladies and gentlemen, is the quality of “conservative” argument in 2018. ...
A social compact that can be joined contrary to the will of its existing members is an impossibility, a self-contradiction.
It’s no wonder, then, that only around 30 countries out of nearly 200
practice birthright citizenship. The highest accounting that I have
seen says 33. There are 197 countries in the world (193 UN members, two
observers, and two non-members). Thus 83% of the world’s nations do not
allow birthright citizenship. Those countries that do have a combined
population of 958 million (in all cases, rounding estimates up in order
not to be accused of fudging the numbers in my direction). According to
the UN, the world population is today 7.6 billion. Our “conservatives”
insist that opposition to birthright citizenship is “nativist,
xenophobic, bigoted, racist, white nationalist, white supremacist” and
more. This means that 6.642 billion of the world’s people (give or take)
must also be “nativist, xenophobic, bigoted, racist, white nationalist,
and white supremacist.” The latter two would truly be something, given
how few of those people are white. ...
More.
Of all the offspring of Time, Error is the most ancient, and
is so old and familiar an acquaintance, that Truth, when discovered,
comes upon most of us like an intruder, and meets the intruder's
welcome. We all pay an involuntary homage to antiquity. ... To the great
majority of mortal eyes, Time sanctifies everything that he does not
destroy.
-- Charles Mackay
Michael Anton made a persuasive case that if America could correct the error of the Dred Scott decision of 1857, surely it can correct the error of the Wong Kim Ark decision of 1898
... Before the Wong Kim Ark decision of 1898, America did not have birthright citizenship. ...
Can we do it without a war this time, please?
Bill King is skeptical that Donald Trump's birthright citizenship gambit will be fruitful
Here:
Adopting a rational immigration system that included better criteria for granting citizenship would greatly benefit our country. Many of the issues surrounding birthright citizenship are the legacy of the inability of Congress to enact such a rational system. I wish I believed Trump’s executive order might spur a thoughtful debate and legislative action in that direction. But sadly, our representatives from both sides of the aisle seem more interested in demagoguing the issue than working together to enact a rational system.
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Monday, January 27, 2025
Ugly Americanism is not the way
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
A Democrat moves to the center: Ritchie Torres (NY-15) calls out AOC (NY-14) and Governor Hochul
Here:
“I’m a controversial figure in Democratic politics,” he says. His affection for the Jewish state makes him “particularly radioactive to the far left. There’s no issue on which I face more hate, harassment, and even death threats.” Mr. Torres says there is “a deep strain of antisemitism on the far left.” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents the neighboring 14th District, has repeatedly accused Israel of “genocide.” ... On Jan. 16, two days after Gov. Kathy Hochul delivered her State of the State address, Mr. Torres accused her of failing to support the state’s Jews. “Antisemitic hate crimes have risen to historic highs in New York,” he tweeted. “Yet when I searched the Governor’s State of the State for the word ‘antisemitism,’ nothing came up.” He tells me the next day that “the governor had a 140-page policy document and there was not a single mention of antisemitism. Never mind that Jews are the target of more hate crimes than everyone else combined. None of that mattered to her.”
Sunday, January 26, 2025
The Trump administration is no different than the Bush 43 administration: You're either with us or against us
The oh so precious little commie Alex Soros fears the Trump bullies when it's the GOP Senate which Trump still can't completely intimidate.
Alex is worried that Marx was wrong about the tragedy coming first lol.
Don't worry, Alex. It's only Farce, part deux.
Real return from stocks was better under Trump I than under Biden
S&P 500 average real return, dividends fully reinvested
Nov 2016--Nov 2020: 13.18% per annum
Nov 2020--Nov 2024: 9.97% per annum
On a nominal basis it was a draw, that's how bad inflation was for stocks: Trump 15.33% per annum vs. Biden 15.39% per annum.
Although the Reagan Bull from July 1982--August 2000 was spectacular, yielding 18.99% nominal and 15.28% real, the actual Reagan era itself was still a huge battle with inflation
Nov 1980--Nov 1984: 10.5% nominal, 4.9% real
Nov 1984--Nov 1988: 17.06% nominal, 13.22% real.
Saturday, January 25, 2025
I don't trust either of these guys as far as I can throw them
In 2016 J. D. Vance and Pete Hegseth were both conventional NeverTrumpers, and had not been particularly religious.
Hegseth was for Marco Rubio in 2015-16 originally, and then for Ted Cruz before acquiescing to Trump. Vance didn't come around to Trump until 2021, whom he needed in his run for US Senate in 2022 from Ohio.
Pete supposedly had a religious transformation in 2018, according to new Wikipedia information, which however contradicts itself:
"He has said that he underwent a religious transformation in 2018 following his marriage to his third wife" but
"Hegseth and Rauchet, who has three young children from her first marriage, married on August 16, 2019."
Oops. Sounds like it was more like 2019, but who really knows? Wikipedia only found out yesterday that Hegseth was born on June 6, 1980. How does this country approve a SECDEF without knowing until now when he was even born?
Meanwhile J. D. converted to Catholicism in 2019, what a coincidence, but was an atheist roughly until he was in law school at Yale during the first Obama administration. His "faith" is primarily intellectual by his own admission.
And now look at the two of 'em lol.
Phony baloney plastic banana good time rock 'n rollas who lick their fingers, stick them in the air, and check whichaway the wind comin' from uh huh.
Friday, January 24, 2025
Pete Hegseth is confirmed to SECDEF 51-50, VP Vance breaks 50-50 tie
Republican Senators Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell voted against Pete Hegseth, necessitating the tie-breaking vote from Vice President J. D. Vance.
Hell of a hill for Vance to die on.
Sad!
Trump pardons 23 pro-lifers convicted under cockamamie Freedom of Access to Clinics (FACE) Act, at least 10 others named are still in the slammer
Trump pardons 23 pro-life activists convicted of FACE Act violations
Many are still incarcerated. Lauren Handy, a Catholic convicted for her participation in a 2020 abortion clinic blockade in Washington, has been serving the longest sentence: 57 months.
According to a list maintained by Citizens for a Pro-Life Society, Handy is currently in a federal prison in Florida. Idoni is incarcerated in Florida; Marshall and Goodman in Connecticut; Darnel and Calvin Zastrow in Illinois; Hinshaw in Massachusetts; Geraghty in Pennsylvania; Calvin Zastrow in Illinois; and Williams, who was arrested for protesting outside an abortion clinic in New York City, in Alabama.
Repealing the 22nd Amendment is a great idea, but not Republican Andy Ogles' (TN-5) idea of revising it to allow Trump a third term but not Clinton, Bush 43, nor Obama
Constitutional amendment to allow Trump third term introduced in the House
Ogles' idea that Trump was denied the power inherent in two successive terms is an admission that the 22nd Amendment limits the power of the executive.
Is the Congress so limited? No.
Is the Judiciary so limited? No.
The 22nd Amendment is an unfair limitation on the power of the executive.
That is why we have dueling tyrannies, one of the legislative, and one of the judicial.
The one has put us $36 trillion in debt because it has the power of the purse. The other has jammed a code down our throats from time to time because in Marbury vs. Madison the Supremes arrogated to themselves the final say on the meaning of the constitution.
The founders intended the three branches to be separate, contending, equal powers.
The 22nd Amendment prevents the executive from contending beyond two terms, and so we are condemned to focusing unnaturally on who will be president every four years, which has the ironic effect of exalting the presidency to the point that there is all this hubbub all the time about the imperial presidency when our real masters are others, a neat trick those masters work like mad to pull and pull and pull.
Term limit everybody, or term limit no one.
Al Hunt and James Carville laughably pretend that Obama didn't dominate Washington by flooding the zone with shit like Trump is doing
 |
| Hey Obama! Guess where I'm calling from! |
Al Hunt:
And [Trump] dominates today like no other president I've seen. And he
dominates with a reckless disregard for truth and more importantly, for
the rule of law.
James Carville: The Democrats are depressed . . ..
It's comic how these old farts don't remember 2009-2010, how civilian employment crashed by 6 million, how 6 million homes went into foreclosure, how housing wealth evaporated, how hundreds of banks failed, and how Obama was content to hand off all these problems to Democrat gangsters from Wall Street to bail out their cronies and prosecuted no one, all while providing zero leadership to a divided Democrat Congress preoccupied with . . . Obamacare, as if people losing everything in this situation had healthcare as their number one priority.
And then Democrats promptly handed everyone healthcare they couldn't afford and couldn't use.
Talk about depressing.
Talk about shit.
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Ronald Reagan appointee blocks Trump's birthright citizenship executive order
 |
| It is good that warriors such as we meet in the struggle of life... or death. |
Federal district court judge temporarily blocks Trump’s birthright citizenship order
... “Ample historical evidence shows that the children of non-resident aliens are subject to foreign powers — and, thus, are not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and are not constitutionally entitled to birthright citizenship,” Rosenberg wrote.
Ultimately, the case is likely to be appealed all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Native Americans were not made citizens by the 14th Amendment of 1868. It took an act of Congress in 1924 to do that.
It is good that this will be decided by the Supremes, maybe, once and for all, maybe.
S&P 500 new record high close: 6,118.71
The benchmark finished the day at 6,118.71, surpassing its prior all-time closing high of 6,090.27 recorded in early December.
Hegseth advances to a final vote with 51-49 vote to end debate, with Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins voting against him
Pete Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Pentagon clears a key hurdle in the Senate
I find myself in small company agreeing with two of the most liberal Republicans in the US Senate, but that's what's become of the men.
Amateur hour 2.0: Trump thinks he can tell the bond market what to do when not even the Fed can do that lol
Welcome to the party, pal.
 |
| yippee-ki-yay mofo |
President Donald Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’
Does this dope pay attention? Oh, that's right, he doesn't pay anyone.
Anyway, the Fed cut rates by a full point since the September meeting, and rates on bonds and notes soared anyway.
The Fed can't demand anything, but President Goofy Nuts pretends it can, and he can.
OK, she's right, good for her
Sen. Lisa Murkowski to vote against Hegseth, first Republican to oppose a Trump Cabinet pick
... senators have remained doubtful of his experience and abilities and the alleged behavior that could lead to reprimand or firing for military personnel he would now be expected to lead. ...
USA fascist police state to expand facial recognition to over 400 US airports
TSA has deployed identity verification tools at more than 80 airports thus far, with the ultimate goal of expanding the technologies to over 400 airports in the coming years. These new units, known at CAT-2 systems, take real-time pictures of travelers — the “face capture” aspect of the tools — and then compare the images against their scanned photo identifications — in this case, in a process known as “one-to-one” facial recognition. ...
“On average, the TSA CAT-2 identity verification process took 23 seconds per person,” the analysis said. “It took well under 30 seconds for all demographic groups, and all demographic groups were within a few seconds of the average.”
More.
Never fly.
Swim.
When eating the road kill catches up with you
Tim is the US Representative for TN-2.
Burchett says he believes aliens have underwater bases on earth
“When they tell me something’s moving at hundreds of miles an hour underwater, and our capabilities … and these things, this one was, it was large as a football field underwater. And this was a documented case, and … and I have an admiral telling me this stuff,” Burchett said Wednesday.
Like Pete Hegseth, the early Americans were strong boozers
"ED: What’s one thing you wish everyone knew about American history?
"SY: I first came across W. J. Rorabaugh’s Alcoholic Republic as a graduate student, and it completely changed the way I thought about early American history. From 1790–1840, average alcohol consumption in America peaked at 7.1 gallons of distilled liquor per capita, over three times today’s consumption rate. When I share this fact with my students, it helps explain two important developments: first, the pervasiveness of violence in antebellum America. Alcohol fueled the mobs, riots, lynchings, vandalism, and duals that threatened the nation’s growing urban areas and the often lawless frontiers. Second, the appeal of the temperance movement. My students often scoff at the 18th Amendment and the failures of Prohibition, but temperance had broad popular appeal as a social cause precisely because alcohol was a pressing problem in the nineteenth century. Most Americans knew someone whose drinking had led to domestic violence, suicide, or poverty."
More.
Eaton fire 91% contained, Palisades fire 68% contained, new Hughes wildfire blows up overnight to 2/3 the size of the Eaton
The Hughes fire is north of LA, Eaton to the east, Palisades to the west.
New wildfire near Los Angeles explodes to 9,400 acres, forces evacuations
. . . The Eaton Fire that scorched 14,021 acres (57 square km) east of Los Angeles was 91% contained, while the larger Palisades Fire, which has consumed 23,448 acres (95 square km) on the west side of Los Angeles, stood at 68% contained. . . .
Burnin' ring of fire.
Peak Baby Boomers worked when they were teenagers, at 2.07% of population, still the peak, today at just 0.78% of population
Get a haircut and get a real jobClean your act up and don't be a slobGet it together like your big brother BobWhy don't you, get a haircut and get a real job?
-- George Thorogood, 1993
It's not a perfect one to one comparison, let alone an actual measurement, but about 20% of teenagers worked in 1979, and not quite 12% today:
J6er: Who he pardoned, he pardoned
“I’ve been asked, you know, I’ve been pardoned, how do I feel about people that may have done other things, and they got pardoned. Well, that’s President Trump’s decision. Who he pardoned, he pardoned.
More.
For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion.
-- Romans 9:15
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
Gold up to $2,759.83, close to record peak $2,790.15
Spot gold added 0.6% to $2,759.83 per ounce as of 0941 GMT. The price hit its highest since Nov. 1 earlier in the session and is close to its record peak of $2,790.15 hit in October.
More.
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Pete Hegseth reportedly has had episodes of drinking to the point of passing out
I get the drinking too much until you barf. I mean, that's pretty much been Freshman Life 101 forever and a day. Pete was a freshman in college in 1999-2000.
But it takes a special kind of excess to drink until you pass out.
Is it true?
Who knows.
One incident was allegedly in 2013, when he was about 32, at which time he had earned an MA from Harvard. Another was when he was about 28, in 2009, when his first marriage ended. That's a long time after graduating from Princeton University in 2003.
The precise timeline is uncertain because his birth year isn't precisely known, and the new revelations come from a former sister in law, married to Pete's brother from 2011-2019, who can't remember the dates exactly.
Anyway, I don't get why the new SECDEF absolutely, positively must be this guy, with all this sooty baggage. No one is that indispensable.
From The Wall Street Journal here:
Pete Hegseth, President Trump’s pick to run the Pentagon, regularly abused alcohol to the point that he passed out at family gatherings, and once needed to be dragged out of a strip club while in uniform, according to an ex-relative’s account of his behavior that was given to U.S. lawmakers and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The sworn statement, submitted in response to a request from Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, was signed by Hegseth’s former sister-in-law, Danielle Hegseth. It states that she was with Hegseth when he passed out from drunkenness in the bathroom of a bar in Minneapolis in about 2013. It also describes another night, when she said Hegseth drank so much at a restaurant in Minneapolis that the Uber driver had to pull over on Interstate 94 so he could throw up.
In her sworn statement, Danielle Hegseth said she personally observed erratic and aggressive behavior by Hegseth, witnessing him abusing alcohol multiple times over the years. One Christmas in 2008 or 2009, he drank so much that he threw up and passed out, she said. ...
Trump executive order reverses Biden's pause on new approvals of LNG projects
It is little discussed, but Biden's pause on the new projects was based, in part, on the negative impact on prices paid by consumers because natural gas was being diverted to LNG exports. Reduced domestic supply has led to higher prices paid by consumers:
The current economic and environmental analyses DOE uses to underpin its
LNG export authorizations are roughly five years old and no longer
adequately account for considerations like potential energy cost
increases for American consumers and manufacturers beyond current
authorizations or the latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas
emissions.
Natural gas diverted to export already reached 10% of production in 2022.
Reported here:
The president reversed the Biden administration’s pause on new liquefied natural gas export facilities. Trump directed the Energy secretary to start reviewing new LNG projects as quickly as possible.
Natural gas prices have exploded by 210% since Trump was elected in November.
Irrational exuberance produces flatulence, recently floated meme coin $FARTCOIN lingers in the air at $1.8 billion market capitalization
Something smelly this way comes.
David Einhorn says we have reached the ‘Fartcoin’ stage of the market cycle
“Other than trading and speculation, it serves no other obvious purpose and fulfills no need that is not served elsewhere.”
A crypto token called “fartcoin” exploded in popularity as the re-election of Donald Trump unleashed a storm of animal spirits on Main Street. The meme coin is now edging towards a $2 billion market value, surpassing many U.S.-listed companies.
More meme coins have emerged since the inception of fartcoin. President Donald Trump launched $TRUMP, a meme coin built on the Solana platform. Its market cap over the weekend climbed past $14 billion. The coin at one point was down more than 20% over the past 24 hours, but it has since cut its losses to around 3%. Trump’s wife Melania also unveiled a coin.
Marco Rubio confirmed as Secretary of State in 99-0 vote, voted for himself lol
The Senate on Monday unanimously confirmed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as America’s 72nd secretary of State, putting in place the first member of President Trump’s Cabinet on the day of his inauguration.
Rubio’s confirmation vote passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, 99-0. Rubio also was able to cast a vote for himself.
Reported here by The Hill at 6:52pm yesterday.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced Sunday that Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted would replace Vice President J. D. Vance in the US Senate, but he has not yet been sworn in, hence the 99-0 vote for Rubio.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced Thursday, January 16th that Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody will replace Rubio in the Senate after Rubio formally resigns.
Senate panel advances Defense secretary nominee Hegseth on party-line vote 14-13
The Hill reported here yesterday at 5:37pm.
90% of the 250,000 inauguration ticket holders got stiffed by Trump's move of the inauguration indoors
MAGA fan traveled 2,700 miles to DC - but is forced to watch Trump inauguration on iPad
Brian Roy traveled from Seattle last week and was among around 250,000 people who had tickets to view the inauguration from around the Capitol grounds before the ceremony was moved indoors.
About 2,600 VIPs were let in to the Capitol venues, and 20,000 regular folks into the arena. The rest were like Brian.
Way to go, Brownie!
Gold hits two-month high
There's funny money like $Trump and $Melania, and then there's the real thing.
Spot gold climbed 0.7% to $2,726.75 per ounce, reaching its highest level since Nov. 6 and nearing the all-time high of $2,790.15 set in October.
More.
Monday, January 20, 2025
As if the pre-emptive pardons of Fauci, Milley, and the Jan 6 lynch mob weren't bad enough, Biden pardoned his own siblings and their families at the last second
Meanwhile, earlier in December Biden's own Department of Justice warned Jan 6 "insurrectionists" that accepting a pardon from Trump would amount to a confession of guilt.
So Fauci, Milley, et alia are all ipso facto guilty.
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