Saturday, September 7, 2024

Trend for Oceanic Nino Index 1951-2024

The 2023-2024 season ended with the May-June-July measuring period. The last two measuring periods of the season came in at .4 and .2, which were not anomalous.

The sum of the season's anomalies was 15.4, not to be confused with size of the actual El Nino.

The El Nino lasted twelve months, ending in March-April-May 2024, overlapping with the 2022-2023 season by two periods and measuring a total anomaly of 16.1, or 1.34 on average. The El Nino was still considered strong (1.5-1.9) however because there were at least three consecutive such anomalous measuring periods measuring between 1.5 and 1.9. There were six such consecutive periods this time, and only one was 2.0 (in the very strong category).

The new season has begun with a .1 reading, also not anomalous.

The overall long term trend for the eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly still lands just slightly below 0 since 1951.

The trend of ever-higher warm anomaly seasons looks broken, but the trend of ameliorating cold anomaly seasons looks intact.