Defense One, here.
The official outlined a scenario in which Putin consolidates some gains in southern Ukraine but fails to install a new puppet regime.
“Ukrainians may or may not cease and desist. The West may or may not continue to arm the Ukrainian insurgency and [Putin] might decide, ‘OK. I'm going to set off a bomb somewhere in western Ukraine to send a message that I have crossed the nuclear threshold, and you can follow me if you want.”