Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Examples of US States back-filling death data from COVID-19 in recent days

Data from the following dates looks anomalous in the graphs, way out of proportion to daily experience. This has been a common phenomenon throughout the pandemic. It just sticks out more now. These aren't deaths all actually occurring on the dates indicated. I suspect that with the general decline in cases and deaths, states are both catching up on death investigations as well as finding this to be an opportune time to update the data. But in some states, like Missouri, the practice seems to be quite habitual.

Minnesota: 140 (Mar 9)
Kansas:        73 (Mar 3)
Oklahoma: 167 (Mar 9)
Missouri:    105 (Mar 9)
                   163 (Mar 3)
Virginia:     383 (Mar 3, the crescendo of 12 straight such days)
Ohio:          160 (Mar 9)
                   752 (Mar 5)

Daily new deaths nationwide are averaging 1,597 per day in the first 9 days of March. Sustained over the course of the month that would lead to fewer than 50,000 deaths and make March at the worst the 5th worst month for new deaths.

Daily new cases are averaging 62,914 per day. That would lead to 1.95 million cases if sustained over the whole month and make it at the worst the 5th worst for new cases.

About 18.4% of the population 18 and over has received at least one dose of a vaccine through March 9th. That is roughly 46 million people. That should add big momentum to the case declines, and eventually to the deaths.