Friday, September 13, 2019

The contagion of the record low 10-year Treasury yield of July 2016 has spread to the 30-year in August 2019



The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note settled at 1.367% Tuesday, breaching the previous close low of 1.404% set in July 2012 when investors rushed into haven debt amid the depth of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. Yields fall as bond prices rise. ...

On an intraday basis, the U.S. 10-year yield touched as low as 1.357%. It was 1.446% Friday and 2.273% at the end of last year. The U.S. bond market was shut Monday for a holiday.

Traders say the 10-year yield still has room to fall. Investors and analysts say bond yields are in uncharted waters now and that it is hard to predict how low yields could go in this environment.

Few in the financial markets have foreseen a period of negative interest rates touching off globally. The total of sovereign debt with negative yields jumped to $11.7 trillion as of June 27, up $1.3 trillion from the end of May, according to Fitch Ratings.

The pool is likely to expand further in the months ahead due to ongoing purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. ...

The 30-year Treasury bond has been the market darling, and the buying spree has pushed down its yield to record lows lately. The 30-year bond’s yield settled at 2.138%, falling below its record close low of 2.226% Friday.

The 30-year bond was usually the playground for pension funds and insurance firms. But it is now being bid up by a broader investor base due to the global hunger for income. Analysts say it wouldn’t surprise them if the 30-year yield falls below the 2% mark in the weeks ahead.


















Three years later:


In late Wednesday trading, the yields on 30-year government bonds were 1.939%, down 2.2 basis points from late Tuesday. They hit an all-time low of 1.905% earlier Wednesday.