Thursday, November 8, 2012

Why It's Too Early To Evaluate Election Turnout

Election turnout in 2012 as of right now is 117.5 million, dramatically lower than 2004, let alone 2008.

Turnout in 2008 was 131.5 million, in 2004 122.3 million, and in 2000 105.4 million.

Hurricane Sandy badly disrupted voting in densely populated areas of the eastern seaboard, especially in hard hit New York, namely in Queens, Long Island and Staten Island. The difference in New York alone between 2008 and 2012 to date is 1.6 million, and 600,000 in New Jersey.

Add to this the late voting arrangements for voters in New Jersey, and the absentee and military vote being tabulated after election day and the turnout numbers for 2012 could yet change significantly, even if relatively few races might be impacted by the outcome.

It's still too early to draw sweeping conclusions about the meaning of the turnout until we know more exactly what it is.