Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Historical Real GDP From BEA, Recent Quarterly, and Annual Data 1996-2011

From the most recent release, Friday, January 27, 2012, here:









The 2011 GDP advance over 2010 of 1.7 percent represents a decline in the pace of recovery of 43 percent, a huge fall-off. The money borrowed (!) to stimulate the economy has done nothing to re-ignite growth, as critics of Keynesianism predicted.

Post-WW2 GDP growth averaged 3.5 percent per annum.

The period from 2001 through 2007 averaged only 2.4 percent.

The back-to-back declines in 2008 and 2009 represent a small depression.

The 2010-11 recovery period so far is averaging only 2.4 percent, a return to the unimpressive growth pattern under one George W. Bush, whose best year in 2004 merely equaled the post-war average.

Real recovery would look more like 6 percent real GDP growth or even higher for a number of years back-to-back.

2010's 3.0 is shaping up to be just a one-off.