The secular bull market in gold since 2001 is coincident with a secular bear market in stocks since 2000, if this November 30, 2009 analysis by Brett Arends for The Wall Street Journal is correct. The current stock market rally is therefore a cyclical bull market within the long term bear market, which at present elevated levels is ground where angels fear to tread, or ought to, as the title "Gold Run a Reason to be Wary of the Stock Market" suggests:
The booming gold price is making me very nervous. About Wall Street.
Why? Because gold's rocketing boom -- it's risen from around $260 an ounce about a decade ago to just under $1,200 now -- is a vivid daily example of what a real bull market looks like. ...
Looking back to early March, there certainly was a lot of panic and capitulation, which you usually see at a market bottom. People talked of a new "Great Depression." One thing I noted at the time was that investors were shying away even from rock-solid defensive stocks with big, well-protected dividend yields. People weren't just scared; they were petrified.
Looking back to early March, there certainly was a lot of panic and capitulation, which you usually see at a market bottom. People talked of a new "Great Depression." One thing I noted at the time was that investors were shying away even from rock-solid defensive stocks with big, well-protected dividend yields. People weren't just scared; they were petrified.
Is that really how a massive bear market usually ends?
The last example before our eyes was gold, whose big bear market ended a decade ago. It looked very different.
Like shares in the 1930s and the early 1980s, gold ended its secular bear market in 1999-2001 with a whimper, not a bang. People didn't panic; they simply lost interest.
Read the rest at the link.
Read the rest at the link.
