The fiscal year to date deficit October 2023-June 2024 was $1.273258 trillion.
The fiscal year to date deficit October 2024-June 2025 is $1.337372 trillion, $64.114 billion higher than a year ago, or 5%.
Friday, July 11, 2025
This dope who works for Trump can barely speak English, is just looking for any way he can to oust Fed Chair Jay Powell
These people make me sick.
The renovations were approved in 2021 and won't be finished until long after Powell leaves next May.
It's an investigation with a pre-drawn conclusion, that's all.
... “When you go to the nation’s mall, you see the construction of this palace ... upwards of $2.5 billion massive cost overrun, and we want to make sure we have facts as to the largesse and the extent to which it’s overrun,” Vought said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “I think it just points to the fundamental mismanagement of the Fed under the chairman.” ...
″The problem with Chairman Powell is he has been late at every turn,” Vought said. “It’s time to lower rates. You have a problem there. But again, this is about the largesse and the fact that he has systemically mismanaged the Fed, and that is evident by what we’re seeing with regard to this monstrosity, this Palace of Versailles, on the National Mall.” ...
“This certainly has to do with the fiscal mismanagement of the Fed, of which [interest rates] is one aspect of it,” he said. “We are going to zoom in over the last several days on this. We have new commissioners at the National Capital Planning Commission who are asking very tough questions.” ...
Ron Insana: Why Trump’s new attack on Powell should be so troubling to investors
... If
I were a foreign investor witnessing the ouster of a Fed chair,
replaced by a presidential supplicant, I’d sell the dollar and U.S.
bonds and head for the hills. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
The great impediment to a U. S. - Canada trade deal which most people in the U. S., including our dunce of a president, don't seem to understand is that it's not Mark Carney standing in the way, it's Canada's sovereign 10 provinces and 3 territories
Canada is today's poster child for America's bad old system of states' rights.
Canada does not have free trade with itself, let alone with the United States. Imagine not being able to drive an 18-wheeler cross country.
... When Carney made his campaign promise, he was talking about cutting red tape put up by the federal government — not the rules set by the provinces, which have the most authority in this area. ...
There is no comprehensive list of existing internal trade barriers. Even some lobby groups have told parliamentarians they don't know how many barriers their own industries face.
There isn't even consensus on what all counts as a trade barrier. ...
Internal Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, who has repeatedly stated that most of the barriers are at the provincial level, testified to the Senate that she will meet with her provincial counterparts on July 8 to discuss next steps.
One major obstacle is in Freeland's crosshairs: Canada's patchwork of interprovincial trucking regulations.
"One of three areas that I will be putting on the agenda at that meeting is trucking," she said on June 16. "It should be a lot easier than it is to drive a truck from Halifax to Vancouver. We need to get rid of conflicting requirements."
Unaffordable Care Act to become more unaffordable for millions in 2026 due to Trump's reconciliation bill, just in time for the election
Why 22 million people may see ‘sharp’ increase in health insurance premiums in 2026
... More than 22 million people — about 92% of ACA enrollees — received a federal subsidy this year that reduced their insurance premiums, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.
Those recipients would see “sharp premium increase” on Jan. 1, Cynthia Cox, the group’s ACA program director, said during a webinar on Wednesday.
The average marketplace enrollee saved $705 in 2024 — a 44% reduction in premium costs — because of the enhanced tax credits, according to a November analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Without the credits, average out-of-pocket premiums in 2026 would rise by more than 75%, Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy, said during the webinar.
Additionally, 4.2 million Americans would become uninsured over the next decade if the enhanced subsidies lapse, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
That growth in the ranks of the uninsured is on top of the nearly 12 million people expected to lose health coverage from over $1 trillion in spending cuts Republicans made to health programs like Medicaid and the ACA to help offset the legislation’s cost. ...
ACA enrollment has more than doubled, to roughly 24 million people in 2025 from about 11 million in 2020, according to data tracked by The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF. ...
According to Google's AI, there are 22.8 million fewer uninsured 2010-2024, presumably because of Obamacare, but 26.7 million more on . . . Medicaid!
Because of that Rube Goldberg Machine known as Obamacare!
Push here, and it comes out there. And the kicker is Medicaid involves estate recovery for nursing home and other care costs at death, which varies by state.
You can run, but you cannot hide.
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Undersea UFO expert Republican Tim Burchett (TN-2) says the Biden administration destroyed the Epstein client list lol
Atta boy, Tim, blame the Democrats.
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said Wednesday he believes a client list associated with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein once existed but was “destroyed” by the Biden administration.
“I think the files existed at one time,” Burchett said in an interview on NewsNation’s “On Balance” with host Leland Vittert. “I think they were destroyed in the previous administration.” ...
Mad King Ludwig to impose 50% tariff on Brazil but not on Israel lol
I mean, some countries are more equal than others amirite?
Trump brands Netanyahu's corruption trial a 'witch hunt,' calls for it to be canceled
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Six climatology charts for Grand Rapids, Michigan, updated today continue to show little evidence of global warming, but plenty of winter moderation
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| average temperature trending up about only 1 degree F in 132 years; could be heat island effect |
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| winter lows trending slightly lower |
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| summer highs trending slightly lower |
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| winter heating demand trending lower |
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| summer cooling demand effectively flat |
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| and much much wetter |
Tuesday, July 8, 2025
Camp Mystic campers routinely did not receive weather emergency training, did not have access to their phones while at camp
HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.
The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.
Five years of inspection reports released to The Associated Press do not offer any details of those plans at Mystic, raising new questions about the camp’s preparedness ahead of the torrential July 4 rainfall in flood-prone Texas Hill Country. ...
Charlotte Lauten, 19, spent nine summers at Camp Mystic, mostly recently in 2023. She said she didn’t recall ever receiving instructions as a camper on what do in the case of a weather emergency. ...
One thing that likely hindered the girls’ ability to escape was how dark it would have been, Lauten said. Campers don’t have access to their phones while at camp, she said, adding they wouldn’t have cell service anyway because of the remote location. ...
$30 billion is not jet fuel for the economy
... The new additional senior deduction and other changes in Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may reduce taxation of Social Security benefits by approximately $30 billion per year, estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. ...
$30 billion is 0.10 percent of current GDP of $29,962.00 billion.
House Speaker Mike Johnson wants you to know this is jet fuel for the economy.
Speaking of reversals, now Jeffrey Epstein did kill himself, clients on list relieved to learn that there is no list
Exclusive: DOJ, FBI conclude Jeffrey Epstein had no "client list," committed suicide
Epstein client list doesn’t exist, DOJ says, walking back theory Bondi promoted
Trump again reverses course on Ukraine out of the blue
He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons. He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons.
... “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“They’re getting hit very hard now,” he added. “We’re going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily.” ...
Monday, July 7, 2025
When relying on technology in Flash Flood Alley lets you down
Girls camp grieves loss of 27 campers and counselors in Texas floods that killed nearly 90 people
... Operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, said they lost 27 campers and counselors, confirming their worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. ...
... On Thursday the National Weather Service advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger.
Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain.
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said one of the challenges is that many camps are in places with poor cellphone service. ...
Why did the Guadalupe River flood so fast? What to know about Texas' 'Flash Flood Alley'
... The Guadalupe River and its surrounding areas in Texas Hill Country have historically been prone to flash flooding, earning the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This area is particularly hazardous, as river levels increased rapidly at the end of last week and over the weekend. ...
Permitting the building of cabins along a river in a dangerous flood plain was just tempting fate.
They do things differently in Texas.
Sunday, July 6, 2025
If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now
Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.
This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.
U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected
Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths.
Saturday, July 5, 2025
Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025
In chronological order:
Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%
Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%
U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%
Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%
Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%
Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30%
500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%
Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26%
High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87%
High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%
GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18%
International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%
Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%
International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%
Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15%
Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53%
Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%
PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%
Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%
Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%
Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82%
Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93%
Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%
Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%
Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32%
Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%
Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%
Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31%
Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception
VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25
VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25
SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%
SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)
SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)
SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%)
We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.
SPX vs. gold since 1913
Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.
The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms. SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.
In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05).
Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.
Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67.
SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.
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