Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Jay Powell is only appearing to be serious about battling inflation


 The only thing Jay is doing about inflation is making sure everyone thinks he's doing something about it, while making sure there remains plenty of spread for his pals to trade off it.

Currently the spread is 5.12: Inflation at 8.2 minus an effective funds rate of 3.08. This is a golden opportunity for the banksters and everyone down the food chain until it reaches you. The banks are getting rich off it. Wall Street is getting rich off it. Corporations are getting rich off it. And, of course, the stock market investor parasites are getting rich off it.

You get left holding the bag of all the price increases jacked up under the guise of the general condition.

 

 

 

Three years ago there was no spread: -0.03. Nothing there to exploit.

The banksters LOVE LOVE LOVE this inflation:

Bank of America said Monday that quarterly profit . . . topped expectations on better-than-expected fixed income trading and gains in interest income . . . third-quarter profit fell 8% to $7.1 billion.

The bond market is not happy.

In Rama a voice is heard, lamentation, weeping, and great mourning . . ..



I would like to come back as the bond market . . . You can intimidate everybody

 Yippee-ki-yay.

 


 

Long US Treasury and Investment Grade bonds both made new 52-week lows again last night

Yippee-ki-yay.

 



Bond vigilantes be like . . .

 Yippee-ki-yay, motherfucker.

 



Monday, October 17, 2022

Through Oct 14 the traditional 60/40 401k portfolio is down a net 21% in 2022, not counting inflation

 Bonds are supposed to perform well as the safe haven asset when stocks fall, reducing the net impact to the portfolio when equities decline.

But not this year!

Bonds have actually crashed on the long end, down even more than stocks, as stocks entered a bear market.

The bond crash is a market statement rebuking the spending those bonds have represented: Not enough return for the risk.

So far the spendthrift Congress remains tone-deaf, leaving it to the Fed to raise interest rates . . . ever so feebly.

No one in his right mind believes raising interest rates 300 basis points is going to have much impact on inflation raging at 800 basis points.





Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Debt draws forward prosperity -- Ambrose Evans Pritchard

 


Payback is a bitch, or why everything sucks

Debt stopped buying economic growth, if it ever did in the first place, way back in 1982, but no one has seemed to notice.

Prosperity based on debt is not prosperity.

Debt draws forward prosperity, and then when you get forward, there's no prosperity there because you already made off with it.

It's like the polar explorer who starved and froze to death because he ate the food caches on the way to the pole instead of saving them for on the way back.