Monday, April 20, 2020

Climate Update for KGRR March 2020










Climate Update for KGRR March 2020

Max Temp 63, Mean 66
Min Temp 17, Mean 7
Av Temp 38.6 Mean 34.1
Precip 3.27 Mean 2.46
Snow 2.8 Mean 9.0
HDD 808 Mean 954
HDD YTD 5325 Mean HDD YTD 5846

Using Heating Degree Days, the winter season in Grand Rapids, MI, year-to-date has been 8.9% milder than the mean.

As always, my mean data is from the beginning of the record, which in most cases means 1892. There are lacunae for some months in the earliest years.

COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death in the USA, ahead of heart disease and cancer


Friday, April 17, 2020

Why do Drudge's "bombshell" stories always seem to end up coming from titty-rags?

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/coronavirus-began-months-earlier-not-21882132

The referenced study isn't even peer-reviewed yet, either.

"Coronavirus began months earlier and not in Wuhan, bombshell UK report claims"

 


Different faces, same materialist evil

Announces "stay at home" Mar 16, "cure worse than the disease" by Mar 22
Closes Hubei Prov. Jan 23, "actions taken to contain the virus are harming the economy" Feb 3

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Laugh of the Day: Limbaugh and Hannity in flames as advertiser Ruth's Chris Steak House gets $20 million bailout from Trump in four days while Main Street waits and waits and waits

The Wall Street Journal reports:

The company, which operates or franchises 159 restaurants, had a profit of $42 million on revenue of $468 million last year.

The owner of the high-end Ruth’s Chris Steak House chain is among the first public companies to disclose it has received a government-backed loan to keep people on its payroll.

Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc., a company with more than 5,000 workers, received $20 million in forgivable loans on April 7, according to a securities filing. That is four days after the Small Business Administration opened the application window on its $350 billion Payroll Protection Program.

Many small-business owners are still waiting for their banks to process an application or hear back about whether they qualify or will receive financial assistance from the PPP fund. The SBA says 1.1 million applications have been approved for loans worth $263 billion as of Tuesday afternoon. The average loan size is about $239,000 so far, the SBA says. Banks say only small portions of approved loans have been disbursed to businesses. ...

The loans were intended for businesses with fewer than 500 employees, but language in the $2 trillion stimulus bill allows restaurants and hotel chains to participate regardless of how many people they employ.

The maximum PPP loan is $10 million. Ruth’s said two of its subsidiaries each received $10 million SBA loans from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and would use the proceeds primarily for payroll costs. ... As of Dec. 29, Ruth’s employed 5,740 people, of whom 5,216 were hourly staff.

Saturday, April 11, 2020

We now know from TSA data that an average of 2 million air passengers traveled daily in the first 10 days of March 2020 when they should have been grounded due to coronavirus

The average for the same days in 2019 was 2.3 million per day, so while air travel was indeed down, it wasn't down very significantly, only about 13%. Obviously only a minority of the population acted prudently by refraining from air travel.  

You can see from the graph how air passenger travel did not start to decline in earnest until after Mar 13 when Trump declared a national emergency. People simply abandoned air travel after that, out of fear.

Think what might have been had Trump only done it sooner.

Air passenger travel throughout February and March ensured that every corner of America would be deeply penetrated by China novel coronavirus 2019 because millions of people helped spread it everyday, everywhere.

We today have over 500,000 cases and over 20,000 dead in a matter of just weeks with the American economy also on its knees, all because Trump ignored pandemic warnings from his own administration as late as Jan 30.

So in exchange for letting a privileged minority of well-heeled jet-setters continue to travel at the beginning of the epidemic, the rest of us can't even go to church tomorrow for Easter services.

Let that sink in.

Sad doesn't even begin to describe it.

Friday, April 10, 2020

On the morning of March 10, Michigan had zero cases of infection from China novel coronavirus 2019

Tonight, April 10, we have  22,646 cases and 1,280 deaths, and we're afraid even to go grocery shopping.

They are limiting entry at Sam's Club to 300 at a time, and customers there today are wearing homemade masks.

They finally had toilet paper. And chicken. Still no butter, though.

Happy Easter.

Joe Biden should run on "Make America Great Again"

heh heh

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Has anyone on the right discussed how Trump and his Fed chair are destroying free market capitalism?

Of course not. When the right does it, it's OK, see. When the left does it, it's socialism or some damn thing. These suck ups say nothing except, "China, baaaaaaaad! America, goooooooood!"

The Fed is now buying EVERYTHING in sight in order to backstop EVERYONE. Today we learned it would buy in the municipal bond market, the commercial mortgage backed securities market, the might as well be junk bond market, and CLOs. That's not free market capitalism.

The Fed balance sheet is already past $6 trillion this week. Remember when it wasn't even a trillion back in 2007? Of course you don't. Remember when Bernanke promised to "normalize" it when the last crisis was over? Of course you don't. Guess who is promising the same thing again? Same Fed chair, different name. Jerry Powell. 


It's bad enough the Fed has been long buying agency mortgage backed securities and Treasury securities.

Eventually it will buy stocks, too, now that it is buying anything and everything in the bond markets.

This is all bullshit. If you believe in capitalism, then you believe in bankruptcy. Nobody believes in that anymore, least of all Donald Trump. Otherwise he'd do something about it.

So America declares itself officially dead today, as it literally dies from a virus it willingly invited in.

How fitting. 

Liberalism's mental disorder gets its death wish.

Trump has been net positive in the Rasmussen Reports Trump Approval Index for just two days in 2020 so far

+1 on Feb 25
+1 on Jan 16

England is paying a heavy price for the seven weeks it wasted at the beginning of the outbreak as it unwisely flirted with herd immunity, which is what numbskulls like Rush Limbaugh want in the US

65,077 confirmed cases
7,978 deaths
Mortality rate 12.26%, nearly 3.5x worse than in the US

We'd have over 57,000 dead already at that rate.

LOL: It's been "wuhan virus numbers" in Singapore at the Straits Times since the beginning of this outbreak, but the Brits gotta apologize

https://www.straitstimes.com/multimedia/graphics/2020/02/wuhan-virus-numbers/index.html?shell

British scientific journal Nature has apologised for associating Covid-19 with China in its reporting, saying that early coverage of the global health crisis by itself and other media had led to racist attacks on people of Asian descent around the world.

More here.

South Koreans remain the safest from coronavirus, followed by the Germans, Americans . . . not so much


Friday, April 3, 2020

Here's the 2020 herd immunity paraprosdokian I thought I would never hear but did

We have to infect the entire population with the coronavirus in order to save it from the COVID-19 disease.

A few voices are actually saying this right now, mostly on "conservative" talk radio. You know who I mean.

England was going to pursue this policy until they realized just how many people would have to die.

Consider what this would mean in the US.

Let's take the South Korean mortality rate, which right now is 1.7% after 6 weeks with no new cases reported today (the US is currently at 2.7% after 4 weeks). Say half the population gets exposed because we give up, go back to work and carry on: 165 million get exposed @ 1.7% means 2.8 million deaths.

Mark Levin was poo-poohing such a catastrophe on his show tonight, like it's not even a possibility, as he rattled off the deaths annually from our wars, heart disease, cancer, etc.

He's wrong. They're all wrong. America is a wide open sitting duck for this disease, which spreads like a cold but kills like the flu. We have the most cases in the world already, by far, 276,965. Flu doesn't spread the way coronavirus does. Not everyone gets the flu. 30 million flu cases is typical, with 30,000 deaths, that's it, in a completely free and open society. But everyone gets a cold. Everyone. And that's the problem. A high morbidity rate.

Fortunately 3/4 of those surveyed think stopping this coronavirus is job one, not saving the economy.

Yes, this will be catastrophic for the economy. It already is. But we've had economic catastrophe before and we know how to rebuild.

The important thing right now is for the government to rescue people, not companies, and buy us some time so that the people actually saving us in the hospitals aren't overwhelmed and succumb. Without Americans there will be no America.

Conserve that. 

Remember George Bush in 2008?

Yeah, George Bush: We have abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system.

Good times 2008 are here again in 2020. Not.

The S&P 500 closed tonight at 2,488.65

That's down only 23% year to date.

Pretty remarkable, that. I mean, look at these first time claims for unemployment over the last two weeks: 8.7 million not-seasonally-adjusted, 9.9 million seasonally-adjusted.

The market in the past has often risen on bad jobs numbers, but this is ridiculous. It's a total disconnect. These are apocalyptic numbers, yet the market is holding on just 23% down.

There's trillion$ of aid in the pipeline to bail out businesses and individuals, but how long can that last? And to what effect? At some point the laws of supply and demand and inflation will have their say, and it isn't going to be pretty, especially if a 4th bill is passed in the Congress, which now seems likely. Had economics ever been susceptible of replacement by passing bills, we would have done it long ago and enjoyed prosperity without work all this time!

Yeah, right.  

The coronavirus infection is a momentous turning point for America. 



Bank Failure Friday: Second bank failure of 2020

The First State Bank, based in Barboursville, West Virginia, failed today, costing the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund $46.8 million.

The FDIC insures deposits at the nation's banks and savings associations, 5,177 as of December 31, 2019.

Monday, March 30, 2020

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Real GDP growth since 2007 lags the Great Depression era by 42% and the post-war by 52%

And Trump thinks this is the greatest economy ever.

Climate update for KGRR February 2020
















Climate Update for KGRR February 2020

Max Temp 51, Mean 50
Min Temp 4, Mean -2
Av Temp 27.5, Mean 24.5
Rain 1.2, Mean 1.79
Snow 15.9, Mean 13.2
HDD 1081, Mean 1136
HDD to date 4517, Mean to date 4892

By heating degree days the winter has been milder than the mean winter in Grand Rapids, Michigan, by 7.7%.


  

Saturday, March 28, 2020

How Wuhan/Hubei deaths from coronavirus might have been 27,000 or 33,000 not 3,177

From the story here:

Urns are reportedly being distributed at a rate of 500 a day at the mortuary until the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, which falls on April 4 this year.

Wuhan has seven other mortuaries. If they are all sticking to the same schedule, this adds up to more than 40,000 urns being distributed in the city over the next 10 days.

Already on Jan 26 there was evidence, quickly removed, that China deaths from coronavirus had reached 81% of the official figure as of Mar 28. Remember that the closing of Hubei Province didn't occur until Jan 23, so on Jan 26 there was still chaos in China as authorities scrambled to secure the actual as well as the information environments.

Based on widely discussed figures, if one assumes Wuhan's 11 million population normally experiences a death rate of 0.7%, then 77,000 residents die annually from all causes under normal conditions. This yields 211 deaths per day on average and 6,417 deaths per month, or 12,833 over the two-month epidemic. Call it 13,000. 40k-13k = 27k dead from COVID-19.

The problem is that it was asserted that as many as 5 million residents of Wuhan had already departed the city for Chinese New Year of the Rat celebrations ahead of the Jan 23 closing of the city. These remained outside Wuhan during the epidemic because they were not permitted to return. If you leave 6 million in the city, the normal mortality rate of 0.7% yields 42,000 deaths annualized, or 3,500 a month. So there would have been just 7,000 deaths normally over the two-month period of the epidemic from non-epidemic causes. 40k-7k = 33k dead from COVID-19.  

But we'll probably never really know.


China drops to third in world coronavirus cases behind US and Italy: China's numbers look less credible by the day


Thursday, March 26, 2020

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Welcome to hell, courtesy of "just a cold"


The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment - such as masks, gowns and gloves - may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient "codes," and their heart or breathing stops.


Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Trump The Libertarian to America: We have to get back to work and infect the whole country in order to save it

“Our country wasn’t built to be shut down. This is not a country that was built for this".

“America will again and soon be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting.”

'Trump very strongly hinted that he planned to ease federal guidance on social distancing at the end of his administration’s “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative, which ends next Monday, despite an expected explosion of reported cases as tests for coronavirus become more widely available.'

'Trump began broadcasting his growing impatience with public health measures meant to combat the pandemic — even as public health officials have offered contradictory forecasts — on Twitter over the weekend, a shift that continued throughout the day on Monday.'



Read the whole thing here.

Monday, March 23, 2020

We've gone from 0 cases here in Michigan on Mar 10 to 1,324 on Mar 23, putting us 5th in the nation

Our mortality rate is 1.2%, 12x worse than for influenza.

A week ago I expected the nation would have only 25,000 cases by now at a 5x rate. We have 41,701 and 537 deaths, for a mortality rate of 1.28%.

Increased testing is occurring.

Michigan is staying at home to prevent spread.

Every day you stay at home increases the chances someone hospitalized for COVID-19 will survive.

You do your part just by doing nothing, at home. 

Gramps, born in 1926, says this is worse than 2008

Dad will be 94 this year if the coronavirus doesn't get him first.

He's been through a lot, seen it all. Darmouth graduate. Served in the US Navy from World War II to Vietnam, retired as a captain.

He was just a little kid during the Great Depression, didn't really know any better. But he's watched America become a lot better since then, and now it suddenly isn't.

Things may end for Dad the way they began, with Great Depression II.

Long war on terror, coronavirus, economic meltdown.

We've had war, plague and depression before in this country, sometimes in rapid succession. WWI ended with a whimper as the Spanish Flu pandemic killed tens of millions, followed quickly by the depression of 1920. That one was very deep and severe, but ended quickly because the government . . . did nothing.

Free market economies, if left to be free, quickly recover from catastrophes because debt overhangs are allowed to clear through bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is the cure.

But we can't stomach that, same as we haven't been able to say No to our children. Self-esteem and all that.

So, expect the suffering and disorder to continue.

Sad. 

Saturday, March 21, 2020

Why coronavirus spread in the USA

Because instead of issuing a travel stop on Feb 1, Trump let everyone keep flying hither and yon, except for Chinese nationals.

Do you know how many that is?

On average 1.75 million people move through America's nine busiest airports EVERY DAY, as of the first half of 2019.

And the planes still fly to this day.

Friday, March 20, 2020

Things on my list I couldn't get at Sam's Club today due to coronavirus panic shopping

butter
bacon
lettuce

Got everything else I wanted, though. 19 items.

Interesting that I wasn't permitted to buy two bags of mandarin oranges or two bags of frozen flounder, only one of each, but I was permitted to buy two 1.75 liter bottles of vodka and two bags of bagels.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Politically speaking about coronavirus . . .

The virus and the economic problems themselves have basically drowned out the Democrat race for the presidency. Trump is front and center in all of it, dominating the news cycle.

The news is very bad for Trump, but the focus is on him and the problems, not the Democrats.

Neither Biden nor Sanders have much going for them personality wise or policy wise. Their voices sound frail and small in the face of these enormous challenges.

Trump is clearly in his element . . . for now.

But wealth destruction, massive unemployment and death now stalk him politically as much as they do the rest of us in reality. It's not going to help him to insist he knew this was a pandemic all along as he did yesterday when he's on camera denying it was not long ago. Besides, if he already knew, he should have taken drastic action like canceling jet travel on Feb 1. Instead he simply canceled the jet travel of a few Chinese nationals. Had he been knowledgeable, he would have known too that all those travelers by jet from China had asymptomatic spreaders in their midst. That's in part why we have an explosion of cases everywhere. They also came from other hotspots on jets to America. Trump bungled this badly and allowed the pandemic to come here.

Anecdotally people in my orbit are heeding the call to stay home. Commuter trains into Chicago are nearly empty, says a close friend. Road traffic is very light on workdays here in Michigan. Work orders have dried up and employees are on-call, if they haven't been furloughed outright. Work-from-home for the $40k or less crowd is estimated to be possible for just 17% of all individual wage earners in the US. Higher earners have more opportunity for that, but it will probably not last long for some as the economy nose dives. Many will soon be underwater, if they aren't already. This is going to cost an enormous sum and do tremendous damage to the people and the economy.

And to think it was mostly preventable with a little common sense, something neither party seems capable of providing.

This is a catastrophe, a pathetic display of human incompetence.    

Sunday, March 15, 2020

The real reason Trump & Co. didn't want you to panic

To avoid the Federal Reserve Bank having to intervene to rescue the economy, that's why. But, too late.

The Fed dropped its benchmark interest rate to 0% this afternoon and will restart QE with $700 billion in Treasury and mortgage security purchases. It knows tomorrow is going to be rough.

The reason isn't to boost the stock market, though there is no doubt they hope that would be a happy by-product of their action.

Because economic activity has dived with all the cancellation going on in order to stop the virus from spreading, there is extreme pressure on overnight funding markets which businesses use to fund their operations. Their income has tanked but they still have bills to pay. Borrowing in the funding markets is critical for the survival of far too many companies. The addition of so many more entities having to go to the funding markets than is usual, and in larger quantity, under these new and dire circumstances means money markets will not have enough liquidity to meet these new demands. So, the Fed will step in to keep things well lubricated.

That's it.

This could have been avoided if Trump had simply shutdown the country on Feb 1 like Xi Jinping shutdown Hubei on Jan 23. China is over the hump on the epidemic there because it acted early to contain the infection. We are just getting started, and unfortunately we are looking more like Italy than South Korea. The virus was still capable of being isolated here on Feb 1. Since then it has spread everywhere because we foolishly permitted travelers to come and go, creating hot zones everywhere. Now it's payback time.

This is going to be really ugly unless Trump acts immediately to do what Fauci wants, which is a 14-day shutdown. People need to shelter in place for a few weeks.

You won't care about an economy in flames if you can't breathe because a killer pneumonia has you gasping for breath.

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Death rate from COVID-19 remains a catastrophe in Italy, China and Iran less so if you can believe them, USA France and Spain form another group, South Korea Switzerland and Germany all are under 1%

The USA is, unfortunately, not looking more like South Korea.

If the USA gets 30 million COVID-19 cases, a mortality rate of 2.15% translates into 645,000 deaths, 21.5 times the number who die from flu in an average year with 30 million influenza cases (mortality rate of 0.1%).

Coronavirus spread in the US and in Michigan

On Tuesday morning there were still 0 cases in my state of Michigan. Late Tuesday there were two. Yesterday we found out there were 12, and this morning we wake up to 25, according to this NYT map.

News broke yesterday that 3 of the cases were right here in my own county of Kent, 2 women and a man, all over 60, all three travelers to international hot spots. Gee what a shock.

At least one of these cases had been up and down a main shopping drag where I do some of my shopping. He or she went to the gym, a pizza joint, a steakhouse, and two (!) submarine sandwich shops between March 6-8. How pedestrian the tastes of these jet-setters.

Trump is criticized by Democrats because of his Feb 1 travel restrictions on China.

I fault him for not going far enough. He has brought Wuhan into my backyard because of what he has not done and easily could have done.

Trump should have shut down all travel on Feb 1, especially by air, to protect America from the spread of this disease and its impact, which has been enormous. Every plane was a missile. Every passenger was a warhead, and now they are all going off all over the place. 

Local and state governments are scrambling to shut down everything they can, disrupting the lives of millions because Trump couldn't bring himself to disrupt the privilege of a class of jet-setting globalists, elites and wannabes, among whom the disease is spreading, according to the headlines and in fact. Trump himself may come down with it because of this.

I carry no brief for the Chicoms, but Xi Jinping is the great man Trump only wishes he could be because he did what he had to do to protect his country from the virus by locking down Hubei Province. Who cares what the motivation was, whether it was saving face, saving the power and privilege of the communist party, saving his economy, or some other more broadly understood conception of patriotism. In the end Xi Jinping understood what he had to do to survive and prevail before it was too late for China. It took him about one month. We are going on two months, have an Emergency declaration as of yesterday, but you are still free to move about the country, spreading the disease.

There were just over 1000 cases in the US on Wednesday. This morning over 2000, which will be 4000 in a few days, then 8000, then 16000, and so on. The time for locking down travel is long past, but locking it down even now would help. 

University of Washington researchers are finding 7-9% positivity results for coronavirus in their daily testing of sample lots approximating 1000. If that turns out to be the morbidity rate and this virus spreads like the common cold, our country could easily have 30 million SARS-CoV-2 infections, 20% of which will be serious. Those 6 million serious cases will overwhelm our healthcare infrastructure, and many will die because of that. There will simply be too many people to treat effectively.

All for muh freedom.




Wednesday, March 11, 2020

What Dr. Anthony Fauci really said today, contrary to Rush Limbaugh: Many, many millions could die

When pressed by lawmakers for an estimate of eventual fatalities in the U.S., Fauci said it will be “totally dependent upon how we respond to it.”

“I can’t give you a number,” he said. “I can’t give you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond. If we’re complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions.”

Rush Limbaugh's ignorance is invincible

He doesn't grasp that a disease 10x more deadly than flu (0.1% vs. 1% in his example) means 10x more deaths.

If flu normally kills 30,000 in an average year in the US (30 million infections times 0.1%), that means 300,000 deaths (30 million infections times 1%).

But hey, no big deal to Rush Limbaugh, because 300,000 dead isn't the old higher estimate of 3% (30 million infections times 3% = 900,000 deaths).

Incredible.

Trump's 15 coronavirus cases going to zero now number 1,015 through 3/10/20


Monday, March 9, 2020

Monday situation summary 3/9/20

The CDC basically urged people 60 and over to become hermits at home to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2. High blood pressure appears to be the one thing most who die of the virus have in common.

The COVID-19 outbreak in Italy is killing off parents and grandparents at an alarming level because the healthcare system, though quite advanced up north, is overwhelmed by the disease outbreak. Reports say many patients die in hospital untreated, just as in China in the early days of the epidemic there, because of inadequate infrastructure and doctors for so many patients. The quarantine has been extended now to the entire country. That is not being done to make Donald Trump look bad. 

Stock market losses today were sizable. The decline in the S&P 500 made the top 20 list for daily percentage losses. The stock market is a confidence game, and valuation has grown to outrageous levels and stayed there for a couple of years already, so it has been vulnerable to a confidence shock. People just didn't believe it was. The virus hysteria is undercutting that confidence. 

The price of oil plunged as OPEC failed to agree to production cuts. Expect big trouble for the economy as a result, which was already in decline, which is why OPEC wanted the cuts. Declining demand. Max von Sydow died to mark the occasion. Hint: He played Joubert.

People are afraid to fly and some flights are nearly empty. It's a good thing, too, because a study from China is out indicating infected persons can infect others in enclosed, air conditioned spaces like buses, even after they've disembarked. One person infected 11 this way. This also happened in Japan you will recall, where a bus driver was infected by tourists from Wuhan on his bus.

US cases of COVID-19 soared to 654 from the 15 President Trump said back in February were headed to zero. Can't make this go away with the Power of Positive Thinking.

Friday, March 6, 2020

There is reason to think this epidemic might result in just 100,000 deaths or so in the US at the very worst

And probably a lot fewer.

The US is too robust compared with places like China and Iran to descend into their chaos, but South Korea's can-do spirit in the face of this epidemic reminds me of nothing so much as Yankee ingenuity. If the bureaucracy in the US can be tamed, we may well have an experience similar to South Korea's.

Just four candidates left in the race for the 2020 Democrat nomination heh heh