Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Sorry, Trump didn't create 2.4 million jobs "since his election", and even if he did, that sucks
Not even the fact-checkers seem to want to get this right. Is the whole country taking stupid pills?
Total nonfarm, not seasonally adjusted, stood at 146.393 million in November 2016. In December 2017 the level was 148.346 million, an increase of 1.95 million.
Seasonally adjusted, the increase went from 145.170 million to 147.380 million, an increase of 2.21 million.
The former figure is 150,000 per month (13 months), the latter 170,000 per month. Meanwhile Trump is claiming 184,462 per month.
These are terrible numbers, including Trump's, which however also appear to be cooked on a bonfire.
In a booming economy, monthly increases well above 200,000 are indicated. That's what we got under Reagan and Clinton, but not now, not by a long shot.
Turn away from these Establishment Survey numbers and consider the Household Survey figures and the picture looks even worse.
Not seasonally adjusted the sum of usually full-time and usually part-time is up just 1.216 million in 13 months. This has been seasonally adjusted up to barely 1.9 million. We're talking 93,500 per month to 146,000 per month, quite the spread. Not exactly confidence inspiring numbers.
The truth is that employment gains have gone soft in 2017 compared with 2016, down about 15%. In the 13 months up to November 2016, total nonfarm jobs seasonally adjusted increased at a monthly pace of not quite 200,000 which was nearly 18% better than under Trump so far.
Trump better hope hiring picks up soon, or this charade will quickly be seen for what it is, all hat and no saddle.
Still waiting for the boom.
Memo to Trump: We need jobs before paid medical leave from them
Compared to twenty years ago, total employed in this country as a percentage of population is lagging by 2 million.
Maybe the president ought to think about remedying that first. What good is paid medical leave from a job I don't have?
This is what you get when the daughter has the president's ear instead of the voters.
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
We've had facts vs. alternative facts, but now Nancy Pelosi introduces "classified facts"
Which, since we're never going to be allowed to see them, mean only some people have the true but secret knowledge, right?
So we're supposed to just trust authority, you know, like her.
Nancy Pelosi is Exhibit A for the enemy in The Open Society and Its Enemies, but there are twenty-five more letters in the alphabet, and hardly enough.
Pelosi, quoted here:
"What they're putting forth is a total misrepresentation. It is false," Pelosi told CNN's Chris Cuomo. "In order to refute it, you'd have to tell the facts, and the facts are classified."
Monday, January 29, 2018
Bernie Sanders understands open borders is what the libertarian Koch brothers want, but he doesn't
Here, where he says open borders are harmful to ordinary Americans' wages.
Why is it the only prominent politician who really truly gets it is the socialist Bernie Sanders? Donald Trump, by contrast, has claimed American wages are too high and does not support increases to the minimum wage.
Maybe Bernie's not really a socialist as he claims. True socialists welcome free trade and open borders because they know that equalizing wages globally will hasten the revolution of the proletariat since it widens the gap between rich and poor to the extreme, driving wages down in a race to the bottom, ending in a violent overthrow of the rich capitalist owners.
Instead Bernie believes in the US nation state. If he's a socialist, he's a national socialist. He just can't say it. Instead he calls himself a democratic socialist.
Labels:
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Donald Trump 2018,
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Sunday, January 28, 2018
Saturday, January 27, 2018
Global stock insanity, Swiss edition: Swiss National Bank balance sheet shows almost $100 billion in US stocks
From the story here:
It’s all fun and good to speculate on the SNB equity price, but I am more interested in what the SNB’s behaviour means for the global markets going forward.
The real problem is that a Central Bank just monetized their balance sheet against another country’s equity market, and instead of getting punished for this reckless behaviour, the markets are celebrating the Swiss good fortune. And I ask you - have you ever seen Central Bankers not behave like a bunch of antelopes on the Serengeti? It is an amazingly disturbing precedent.
Illinois legislature calls the market top, plans to borrow $107 billion and invest it to rescue failing pension system
From the story here:
(Bloomberg) — Springfield lawmakers are so desperate to shore up the state's massively underfunded retirement system that they're willing to entertain an eye-popping wager: Borrowing $107 billion and letting it ride in the financial markets.
Friday, January 26, 2018
Annualized rate of economic growth slows from 3.2% in 3Q to 2.6% in 4Q 2017
Imports increased, a drag on GDP.
Expect more of the same if Trump & Co. (yeah, I'm talkin' to you Mnuchin) keep talkin' down the dollar.
DXY was trading above 100 as recently as last April, struggled to achieve 95 in November, and now this morning is trading around 89 after Mnuchin's loose lips at Davos.
It would be nice if this administration got its policy act together, on immigration, trade, the dollar, etc. instead of all these comments which imply they are winging it.
So much winging . . ..
Thursday, January 25, 2018
One of these days Trump may float a trial balloon on immigration we actually like, but the latest one is a nonstarter
The story here says he's now offering a pathway to citizenship to nearly 2 million Dreamers.
Trump needs to understand that his voters aren't going to show up for him if he actually signs an amnesty, and that an amnesty just guarantees that the problem won't go away.
Been there, done that. The country's full. They need to go back. All of them.
Trump is boring me to death with these endless iterations when he's not pissing me off with them.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Andy McCarthy ties a nice little bow around his thesis that Hillary wasn't prosecuted because Obama was implicated in her felonies
The presidency long ago became a law unto itself. Occasionally the tyranny becomes more evident, depending on the level of the lawlessness in the heart of the man, or the woman. Good character, unfortunately, matters more than ever, but is increasingly in short supply, in each of us, in our neighbors and in our politicians.
From the story here:
As his counselors grappled with how to address his own involvement in Clinton’s misconduct, Obama deceptively told CBS News in a March 7 interview that he had found out about Clinton’s use of personal email to conduct State Department business “the same time everybody else learned it through news reports.” Perhaps he was confident that, because he had used an alias in communicating with Clinton, his emails to and from her — estimated to number around 20 — would remain undiscovered. ...
[A]n agitated Mills emailed Podesta: “We need to clean this up — he has emails from her — they do not say state.gov.” (That is, Obama had emails from Clinton, which he had to know were from a private account since her address did not end in “@state.gov” as State Department emails do.)
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
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