He's hoping to make it to January 20th without Obama pardoning her so that it's still an option for him after he becomes president.
He's playing chicken with Obama.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Revulsion Election 2016 update, two weeks out
Turnout
2016: 133.3 million
2012: 129.2 million
2008: 131.5 million
Popular Vote
Trump/Clinton: 62.0m/63.7m
Romney/Obama: 60.9m/65.9m
McCain/Obama: 60.0m/69.5m
-------------------------------------
5.8 million who turned out for Obama in 2008 didn't for Hillary in 2016
Hillary Loses to Trump in 2016 Underperforming Obama 2008 by
424,000 in PA
623,000 in OH
606,000 in MI
294,000 in WI
-----------------
1.947 million votes out of total underperformance of 5.8 million, or 33%; another 1.9 million didn't bother showing up for Hillary in California (800K), New York (700K) and Illinois (400K).
Trump Margin of Victory in
PA: 66,000
OH: 455,000
MI: 13,000
WI: 24,000
From Trump's 306 Electoral College votes peel off MI, he'd have been at 290.
Peel off WI he'd have been at 280.
Peel off PA he'd have lost with 260, despite winning OH handily and also FL.
This election really came down to those 66,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and the hundreds of thousands of people in the Rust Belt who were alienated from the Democrat Party.
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Jessica Valenti, feminazi wife of Talking Points Memo publisher, has her work cut out for her shaming Trump voters
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| . . . Oh well, goodbye |
One down in Mike Pence, only 61,898,583 to go, as of this morning.
Story here.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
I got your climate change right here in Grand Rapids, fella
Yesterday at 1453 hours we hit the high for the day at 70 degrees F.
Today at 1453 hours it was 33, less than half that.
And we had our first snow of the season, high winds and an 18-hr power outage.
Friday, November 18, 2016
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Trump interviews with the likes of Cruz and Romney are designed to do just one thing
Keep him in the headlines.
You'd think they'd catch on by now.
But no, this is serious, right?
DNI James Clapper the Lying Bastard resigns
This guy paved the way in 2013 for Hillary's lying to Congress with impunity in 2015.
The bastard should be keelhauled on the USS Enterprise, put back into service specially for the purpose.
Story here.
 |
| USS Enterprise: longest ship in the US Navy |
Once again Rush Limbaugh is full of it about the late, great recession
Here's Rush on November 15th:
In the first place, this so-called recession, the worst since the Great Depression 2008, I don't care, folks, it wasn't! ... Democrats have lived off of this economic collapse narrative for eight years now, and it's horse hockey. The truth of it is that there hasn't been a recovery from it. ... Hell, the recession that Reagan inherited in 1980 dwarfs this one. I mean the thing that Reagan inherited when he became president in 1980, this doesn't even get close to touching it, how bad it was. ... This has really been a sore spot for me for all these eight years, is how supposedly bad that was and how Obama single-handedly rescued us from it, and it was all the Republicans' doing, and it all happened because of the Iraq war. ... We haven't replaced these jobs that were lost. They keep talking about the employment rate being way down, record lows, what a crock.
Rush doesn't remember the 1980s very well, when he was in his 30s. Without a college education and a long enough personal history to compare things to while experiencing the hard knocks of life trying to get his radio career going, those years understandably seemed worse to him than they really were. Honest people everywhere recognize it was that way for them, too. Unfortunately Rush still doesn't seem to be able to measure the 1980s properly let alone put them in their proper perspective economically.
Take first time claims for unemployment. Reagan's weekly average 1981-1988 was 406,000. Obama's weekly average 2009-2016 (still unfinished) is 373,000, 8% less severe overall. But the averages around each recession peak are much closer in severity. First time claims 1981-1983 averaged 491,000 weekly, while claims 2009-2011 averaged 477,000 weekly, the latter only 2.85% less severe overall. Peak claims in 1982 averaged 30.1 million, in 2009 only 2% lower at 29.46 million.
While the Obama jobs recession was not quite as severe in terms of the persistence of high first time claims for unemployment, full-time jobs took forever to recover under Obama. Under Reagan they had bounced back almost immediately. In 1981 the pre-recession peak in full-time averaged 83.243 million. By 1984 that level had been recovered with 86.544 million full-time jobs on average. Three years, that's it. In 2007, by contrast, the pre-recession peak in full-time averaged 121.091 million, but it took EIGHT YEARS to recover that level. Full-time finally averaged 121.492 million in 2015. That's why it hasn't felt like things are looking up until this year, in 2016.
If you were an adult in the 1980s, you probably remember the Savings and Loan crisis from 1986-1995, but you probably don't think of the Reagan era as a period of widespread bank failures comparable with what we recently experienced in the Great Recession, and you would be right. Losses from such failures as estimated by the FDIC for the period 1981-1988 total $8.9 billion. But for the period 2009-2016 estimated losses from bank failures soared to $57.3 billion, 544% higher. Even adjusted for inflation the recent losses were well in excess of 200% higher than in the 1980s.
Or take housing. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell at most about 14% from the late 1970s to the mid 1980s through the Reagan recessions. I remember my dad was pretty unhappy about it because he retired in 1980 and was sitting in a house he hoped to sell for more money one day, but the value kept declining. But that was nothing compared to what happened between 2006 and 2012 when the index tanked over 36%. The foreclosure rate averaged just 0.5% in 1980-81, but soared to 3.8% in 2008-09, an increase of over 600% in the rate. Many millions of people lost homes in the Great Recession, but they are nameless and faceless to Rush Limbaugh because to him things were much worse in the 1980s. But not in reality. I saw homes in foreclosure in my own middle class neighborhood in 2007 that I never saw back in 1980 in my dad's hometown.
Perhaps the best way to visualize how much worse the most recent recession was compared with the early 1980s is to examine quarterly current dollar GDP. You had one tiny blip in quarterly current dollar GDP between December 1981 and March 1982 when it declined all of $0.01 trillion, 0.3% that's it. The truth is GDP recovered the next quarter ending June 1982 and never looked back.
Fast forward to 2007-09. There were four quarterly declines: A decline of $0.02 trillion between 12/31/07 and 3/31/08; a decline of $0.29 trillion from 9/30/08 to 12/31/08; a decline of $0.17 trillion from 12/31/08 to 3/31/09; and a decline of $0.04 trillion from 3/31/09 to 6/30/09. The previous peak level in quarterly current dollar GDP wasn't recovered until a year later, in June 2010. It took almost two years, not one quarter as in 1982. All told GDP fell from peak to trough by $0.5 trillion or 3.37%.
The recession of 1982 was child's play compared with 2007-2009. Rush just can't see it because he was already rich during the Great Recession.
Your guiding light in this time of tumult he is not.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
You'll know we're in trouble when . . .
. . . everyone suddenly starts speaking well of Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in OH, MI, PA and WI because 1.949 million Obama voters from 2008 didn't vote for her
OH: 623,000
MI: 607,000
PA: 424,000
WI: 295,000
Figures one week on show almost 300,000 Wisconsinites in 2016 withheld their vote from Hillary, allowing Trump to eek out a victory by 25,000
Clinton polled 1.382 million in 2016 vs. 1.677 million for Obama in 2008, a deficit of 295,000 votes. The Hillary deficit from Obama 2012 was 238,000 votes.
Overall turnout in 2016 was flat at 2.98 million, the same as in 2008. Turnout had climbed in 2012 to 3.07 million.
Turnout for Trump 2016 is currently 1.40703 million vs. 1.40797 million for Romney in 2012, indicating no surge in support for Republicans.
Democrats elected Trump in Wisconsin in 2016.
Election 2016 turnout update in the 14 largest states by population compared to 2008, one week later: Hillary underperforms Obama by 1.654 million votes in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania
CA: -2.9 million
TX: +0.8m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 340,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
FL: +1.1m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 219,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
NY: -0.5m
IL: flat
PA: +0.02m/flat (Hillary fails to get 424,000 Obama voters from 2008)
OH: -0.34m (Hillary fails to get 623,000 Obama voters from 2008)
GA: +0.2m Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 33,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
NC: +0.4m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 21,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
MI: -0.22m (Hillary fails to get 607,000 Obama voters from 2008)
NJ: -0.1m
VA: +0.3m
WA: -0.1m
AZ: +0.2m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 89,000 votes but still lost to Trump)
Total turnout down in six states: 4.16 million
Total turnout up in seven states: 3.02 million
Turnout net down: 1.14 million
Hillary states: turnout down 3.3 million
Trump states: turnout up 2.16 million
Total Hillary outperform Obama, still loses in five states: 702,000 votes
Total Hillary underperform Obama, loses in three states: 1,654,000 votes
With a 2-seat margin in the US Senate, Ted Cruz and Jeff Sessions should stay where they are and not join the Trump administration
There'll be time to promote them later.
Trump needs Sessions to carry the water on immigration, and Cruz needs to prove himself to us on the issue.
Trump also needs Cruz to keep the Freedom Caucus in line in Congress to get the agenda passed.
If Cruz loses in Texas in 2018, he can always be rewarded with a post as a consolation prize.
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