Mad King Ludwig to impose 50% tariff on Brazil but not on Israel lol

I mean, some countries are more equal than others amirite? 

 Trump To Impose 50% Brazil Tariff, Citing Bolsonaro "Witch Hunt"

Trump brands Netanyahu's corruption trial a 'witch hunt,' calls for it to be canceled

 

Six climatology charts for Grand Rapids, Michigan, updated today continue to show little evidence of global warming, but plenty of winter moderation

 

average temperature trending up about only 1 degree F in 132 years; could be heat island effect

winter lows trending slightly lower

summer highs trending slightly lower

winter heating demand trending lower

summer cooling demand effectively flat

and much much wetter

Camp Mystic campers routinely did not receive weather emergency training, did not have access to their phones while at camp

 

Texas inspectors approved Camp Mystic disaster plan 2 days before deadly flood...

 

HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.

 

The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.

 

Five years of inspection reports released to The Associated Press do not offer any details of those plans at Mystic, raising new questions about the camp’s preparedness ahead of the torrential July 4 rainfall in flood-prone Texas Hill Country. ... 

 

Charlotte Lauten, 19, spent nine summers at Camp Mystic, mostly recently in 2023. She said she didn’t recall ever receiving instructions as a camper on what do in the case of a weather emergency. ...

 

One thing that likely hindered the girls’ ability to escape was how dark it would have been, Lauten said. Campers don’t have access to their phones while at camp, she said, adding they wouldn’t have cell service anyway because of the remote location. ...

Put it back in the warehouse, Pam

 

$30 billion is not jet fuel for the economy

 

‘Big beautiful bill’ may help some seniors on Social Security. But it doesn’t eliminate taxes on benefits 

... The new additional senior deduction and other changes in Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may reduce taxation of Social Security benefits by approximately $30 billion per year, estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. ...               

$30 billion is 0.10 percent of current GDP of $29,962.00 billion.

House Speaker Mike Johnson wants you to know this is jet fuel for the economy. 

 

 

Speaking of reversals, now Jeffrey Epstein did kill himself, clients on list relieved to learn that there is no list

Exclusive: DOJ, FBI conclude Jeffrey Epstein had no "client list," committed suicide

Epstein client list doesn’t exist, DOJ says, walking back theory Bondi promoted

Laura Loomer rips AG Pam Bondi over Epstein files: ‘She was always lying’

 

Jeffrey Epstein had no 'client list,' died by suicide, DOJ and FBI conclude

 

MAGA Demands Pam Bondi’s Head for Falsely Hyping Epstein Client List

 

‘Complete disappointment’: Kash Patel once pushed Epstein conspiracies, now leads Trump’s FBI and dismisses them, but MAGA isn’t buying it

From ‘where's the list?’ to ‘there is no list’: Kash Patel’s Epstein U-turn - Hindustan Times

Trump Issues Statement on Kash Patel and Dan Bongino — As MAGA Torches Them Over Epstein

Trump again reverses course on Ukraine out of the blue

He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons. He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons.

 

Trump says U.S. will send more weapons to Ukraine

... “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“They’re getting hit very hard now,” he added. “We’re going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily.” ...

When relying on technology in Flash Flood Alley lets you down

 Girls camp grieves loss of 27 campers and counselors in Texas floods that killed nearly 90 people

... Operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, said they lost 27 campers and counselors, confirming their worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. ...

... On Thursday the National Weather Service advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger.

Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said one of the challenges is that many camps are in places with poor cellphone service. ...

Why did the Guadalupe River flood so fast? What to know about Texas' 'Flash Flood Alley'

... The Guadalupe River and its surrounding areas in Texas Hill Country have historically been prone to flash flooding, earning the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This area is particularly hazardous, as river levels increased rapidly at the end of last week and over the weekend. ...

 

Permitting the building of cabins along a river in a dangerous flood plain was just tempting fate.

They do things differently in Texas. 

 

If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

Speaker Johnson: We've Given Everybody A Tax Cut, That Will Be Jet Fuel For The Economy

 

There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.

 

There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.

 

The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.

 

 

 

U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected

 Story.

Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths. 

Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025

In chronological order:

 

Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%

Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%

U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%

Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%

Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%

Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30% 

500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%

Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26% 

High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87% 

High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%

GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18% 

International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%

Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%

International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%

Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15% 

Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53% 

Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%

PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%

Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%

Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%

Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82% 

Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93% 

Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%

Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%

Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32% 

Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%

Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%

Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31% 

 

Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception

 VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25

VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913

 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 

 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.

 

Billionaire becomes homeless

 Welcome to the club, bub.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says he’s ‘politically homeless’ in July 4 post bashing Democrats

 

America to Ukraine: Freedom for me, but not for thee

Putin attacks Kyiv after call with Trump:

 

The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus

The roll call vote is here.

The $36 trillion national debt will soar.

The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.

The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.

The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it. 

 

 

Hakeem Jeffries has finished his speech in the US House, which took 8 hours and 44 minutes, a new record

 

You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k

 The swamp is everywhere lol.

down 69k

up 119k

up 56k