Sunday, September 25, 2022
Saturday, September 24, 2022
Two conditions need to develop before buying bonds
. . . the trend in the bond market . . . still looks bearish. ...
As yields rise and inflation eases, the relative allure of bond payouts becomes attractive, in absolute and relative terms vs. other assets.
James Picerno, here.
Yields are indeed rising, but prices are still falling, so no, not quite yet. Bond prices ought to stabilize when inflation finally eases, and so far prices haven't stabilized.
VWESX is instructive.
There's just a handful of years back in the 1980s where the average price of this very long term investment grade bond fund had been below $8 like the current price is today.
That's one reason why Jeffrey Gundlach rightly says that bonds are "wickedly cheap".
But VWESX only just got there on September 20th, hitting $7.99. We're down to $7.88 this weekend.
Meanwhile yields across this investment grade spectrum are bunched up in the fours, with only about 55 basis points difference between the shorts and longs, and intermediates effectively paying the same as or more than longs.
Prices on the longs need to fall a lot more before making them more attractive than intermediates if you are going to settle for only similar yield.
After all, the long term average return of investment grade longs is north of 7.5%, not in the fours.
But what the hell do I know?
Invest, or don't, at your own risk.
Friday, September 23, 2022
Adam Tooze: Central bankers' hands were forced in 2010, the poor dears, they aren't the lords of easy money, no, they're its slaves, just like us
Here, for The New York Times:
If
you are worried about wealth inequality in the United States, then the
solution is not to tighten monetary policy but to make structural
changes to the country’s financial system, starting with the undergrowth
of shadow banking. Serious taxation of wealth and capital gains would
also push in the right direction.
It
would no doubt help if onetime central bankers, rather than cycling in
and out of private finance, spoke out seriously in favor of reform. They
would be doing the public a service if they spelled out the way that
their hands were forced by the current incestuous intertwining of public
debt markets with hedge funds and the like. Ultimately, however, it is
politics that must grasp the nettle of change.
In
the current dispensation, it may be flattering for central bankers to
be cast as maestros, but in practice they are less the lords of easy
money than its functionaries.
Central bankers cycle in and out of private finance raking in millions, Adam.
If anyone were serious about restructuring the country's financial system, the place to start would be by restoring the key missing feature of capitalism without which it doesn't really exist. It's called bankruptcy.
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Bond yields should fall as stocks sell off, lol
Yield on the US 1-year is beating everything with a club in 2022, up 920% year to date.
Hide your baby seals.
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
LOL Al Gore flunked out of divinity school but still preaches a secular apocalypse which will never happen and isn't happening now
A country teeming with sectarian believers in eschatology of one kind or another groomed us for these idiots.
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
LOL The UK Mirror calls the Queen Prince Harry's great-grandmother
Old Blighty ain't what she used to be.
Everything in the story is about as reliable, too.
Monday, September 19, 2022
You can always tell when there's a live idiot writing the headlines at Drudge instead of a bot combing WaPo, The New Republic, and CNN to shred the right
The reptile Drudge shed his conservative skin long ago.
Biden repeats May statement committing US forces to the defense of Taiwan
Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast on Sunday whether U.S. forces would defend the democratically governed island claimed by China, he replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.”
More.
Sunday, September 18, 2022
Once again, it was the idiot liberal Republican George H. W. Bush who advanced the anti-capitalist Democrat global warming agenda
. . . the Inflation Reduction Act was signed by President Biden earlier this summer. It had been thirty years and sixty-five days since President George H.W. Bush signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro.
Here.
George also spawned the redundant hate crime legislation, huge increases to LEGAL immigration, wheel-chair access at every intersection's crosswalk among other expensive accommodations for the ambulatory handicapped, who in 2016 are fewer than 7% of the population, an unchastened Saddam Hussein, and READ MY LIPS . . . NEW TAXES.
Oh yeah. He also literally spawned the guy who didn't keep America safe on 911 and gave us the expensive nation-building wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the insidious Patriot Act, but don't get me started.
Everything BUSH has been terrible for America, which is saying a lot when everything Democrat always is anyway.
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