Tuesday, November 20, 2018
It's always amusing to see what triggers CNBC liberals, in this case a Johnny Reb hat worn by US Senate hopeful Cindy-Hyde Smith
Appearances are everything to liberals, who are our time's cave dwellers of Plato's Republic, who have never seen a reenactment of a War Between The States battle, as I have right here in Yankee Michigan. Yes, we've had full blown Confederate armies here, the state which just witnessed a Democrat sweep of state offices in Election 2018.
A lousy gray hat from yesteryear triggers the headline (the blue Yankee hat goes unremarked):
Young whites are fleeing the Republican Party under Trump: Down 11 points in 18-29 since 2014, 10 points in 30-44
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| 2018 CNN exit poll |
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| 2014 CNN exit poll |
Myth of the white supremacy surge: Rather than a 4-point decline in the white vote for Republicans from 2016 to 2018 per the NYT, a better comparison is 2018 vs. 2014 showing a 6-point decline
It's better to compare midterm election with midterm than it is midterm with general.
Whatever Trump and the Republicans have been doing, it's not causing the white majority to vote for Republicans in greater numbers when Trump most needs them to do so to advance his agenda.
Arguably every racial group is running away from what Republicans stand for under Trump.
Contrary to Richard Spencer who says Trump has made inroads with minority communities, Trump has alienated minorities from the Republican Party since 2014, the black vote by 1-point, the Latino vote by 7-points, and none more than the Asian vote, by a whopping 27-points, partly a function no doubt of Trump's (correct) anti-China rhetoric.
Trump's prospects for reelection in 2020 do not look good at all. Whatever "movement" he thinks he had was nonexistent, and instead of growing his support it's going the other way.
Election 2016 remains The Revulsion Election, and if Trump's not careful he'll be on the receiving end of the revulsion instead of Hillary come 2020.
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| CNN 2018 exit poll |
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| CNN 2014 exit poll |
Julie Kelly entertainingly calls David French's warnings about a "white supremacy surge" hysterical
Reminds me of when Ann Coulter called National Review a collection of girly-boys.
Also, nice to see some of the old Takimag commenters showing up in reply.
There Is No ‘Surge’ in White Supremacy:
Also, nice to see some of the old Takimag commenters showing up in reply.
There Is No ‘Surge’ in White Supremacy:
So, despite the hysterical warnings from French and his collaborators in the media, there was only a small increase in hate crimes last year and those numbers dropped significantly in the first half of the year. This means there is no “surge” either in hate crimes or white supremacy. (The synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh last month singularly will change that forecast for the year. Trump also has been blamed for that massacre by French’s NR colleague, Jonah Goldberg, even though the shooter did not vote for Trump and criticized the president for being “surrounded by kikes.”)
Monday, November 19, 2018
Looks like Richard Spencer is taking the NYT as seriously as Ann Coulter
2018 support from whites fell to 54%. Trump has suppressed the white vote.
Where all da white wymyn at? Cuckin' der men, dats where.
Brenda Snipes, PhD and Supervisor of Elections in Broward County, Florida, resigns after long history of incompetence
In 2004, Snipes said 58,000 absentee ballots in heavily Democratic Broward County were lost – a detriment to the campaign of John Kerry's campaign. ...
In 2016, however, her office illegally destroyed 6,000 ballots after they were counted but a judge ordered them to be preserved.
In 2018, her office sent out a sample ballot that did not resemble the real ballot used on Election Day. The ballot arguably made it difficult to locate the U.S. Senate race on the ballot to cast a vote.
Lastly, Snipes' office submitted the results of a machine recount two minutes past the deadline and also lost over 2,000 ballots for the 2018 midterm.
Two years on 67% of The Astrology Party says the Russkies tampered with 2016 vote totals to elect Trump, just 17% of The Stupid Party, and 41% of the nitwits in between
Well, it was question 26C. Maybe they were tired and confused by that time, or on to their third beer.
Rush Limbaugh trumpeted the Republican retirements myth to blame them for losing the House, Twitter fools run wild with it
There weren't 43 House retirements in 2018 "fearing a wave".
Just 23 House Republicans "fled" politics and retired. But of those just 8 seats flipped to the Democrats, or 35%. 65% were Republican holds.
Republicans lost CA-39, CA-49, FL-27, MI-11, NJ-2, NJ-11, PA-06 and WA-8. If you want to blame these losses on Republican retirements, you might as well credit Republican retirements for keeping the remaining 15 seats Republican: FL-15, FL-17, KS-2, MS-03, PA-13, SC-04, TN-02, TX-02, TX-03, TX-05, TX-06, TX-21, VA-05, VA-06 and WI-01 (Paul Ryan's seat). Which will it be?
The whole idea is stupid and vindictive, especially when considering that Republicans still allocated big bucks trying to retain control of retired seats even as Republican incumbents went down to defeat in six of the ten costliest races in the nation: CA-25, CA-48, CO-6, FL-26, MN-3 and NY-19.
Reuters ranked the retired Republican WA-8 loss the second most expensive House race in the country. Another analysis put the retired Republican losses in CA-39 and CA-49 fourth and third among the ten costliest House races in the country, with the GOP-retained seat in retired TX-02 the ninth most expensive House race.
The fact of the matter is Democrats outraised and outspent Republicans in this cycle in order to repudiate the 2016 Trump victory. Considering that it was by far the most expensive midterm ever, it's a wonder Democrats didn't do better than they did.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Republican Rick Scott defeats Democrat Senator Bill Nelson in Florida by 10,033 votes in manual recount
Overall, Republicans picked off Senate seats from Democrats in Election 2018 in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
Democrats picked off Nevada and Arizona from Republicans who end up controlling the US Senate by only a net +2, or 52-47 at the moment.
A run-off in Mississippi in nine days will determine whether Republicans enjoy a 53-47 majority or a 52-48.
Andrew Gillum concedes in FL (again), and Stacey Abrams in GA joins Roy Moore in AL in not conceding at all
What matters in these affairs is election certification by the respective Secretaries of State, not whether the losing candidates concede or the winning candidates claim victory.
Still, it is considered un-American not to concede when you've lost, simply because that means you don't accept the rules Americans agree to live by in these matters. Without that glue, the whole thing is in danger of descending into chaos, conflict and perhaps civil war.
One such un-American person stoking these flames is Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio who said "if Stacey Abrams doesn't win in Georgia, they stole it, it's clear. It's clear. I say that publicly."
Obviously not clear to the final authority in this matter, Senator.
In rejecting the non-conceders, one might say the voters got it right in electing their opponents, including in Alabama, except that in Ohio Sherrod Brown just won six more years in the US Senate by 275,000 votes.
The mills of the gods grind slowly . . ..
Gillum had conceded to DeSantis on election night, but retracted it after the margin between the two candidates narrowed.
Her speech Friday effectively puts a stop to the contest. The final result had been in doubt for 10 days after the election.
Abrams stressed as she spoke: "This is not a speech of concession."
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Trump's losses in the US House are more than double the average Republican president's first midterm losses
The average loss of seats in the US House for the first midterm after a Republican's initial election to presidential office has been 17 up to Trump, who is set to lose 36.
A loss of 36 is more like what a Democrat president would lose in the first midterm, which averages 31.
Trump, of course, used to be a Democrat.
Trump, of course, used to be a Democrat.
Friday, November 16, 2018
One term president waves surrender flag on drug war, signs on to criminal justice reform, no one will be executed
President Donald Trump’s support has put Congress within reach of passing the most sweeping set of changes to the federal criminal justice system since the 1990s, when fear of crime drove the enactment of draconian sentencing practices that shipped hundreds of thousands of drug offenders to prison.
We don't need any more immigrants: Population increases have outpaced labor force increases for a decade
Before the Great Recession the growth rate of the labor force easily exceeded the growth rate of population for decade after decade, but since then the situation has reversed dramatically.
Population has been increasing at a rate 75% higher than the labor force over the last decade. The increased population is not assimilating to work.
THERE IS NO LABOR SHORTAGE.
THERE IS NO LABOR SHORTAGE.
Increasing the population of the non-working has been the number one drag on the economy, causing GDP to fall and debt to rise, negatively impacting every standard measure.
Liberal math: In ME-2 the Democrat came in second but wins the seat anyway
This is how the National Popular Vote will work in the case of president if states adopt the kind of legerdemain citizens of Maine adopted in 2016.
I say legerdemain advisedly, because it is not reasoning but simple trickery. In the case of the National Popular Vote, you will think X won your state but because Y got more votes nationally your state agrees to switch its electoral college votes to Y. In Maine because of an equally arbitrary decision to deprive the top vote getter from winning (the winner must get 50% even though Bill Clinton never did), the winner ends up losing because of "ranking". The last place finisher's votes, person D's, get reallocated to A, B, and C using math reflecting the voters' rankings of all the candidates until someone reaches 50%.
The voters collectively decide how your vote will go, not you, based on their ranking of the candidates, not yours.
In other words, if you happened to vote for D, and probably also for C in this case, your vote was changed to B, not the original winner A.
They say every vote must count, and call it democracy.
I seem to recall the Germans voted for Hitler, too. They gave up their freedom willingly, you see, so it must have been OK.
Poliquin narrowly got the most votes on Election Day – with 46.1 percent to Golden's 45.9 – but because he didn't get more than 50 percent of the vote, Maine's new law kicked in. Independent candidates Tiffany Bond and William Hoar combined received about another 8 percent of the vote.
In the new system, approved by Maine voters in 2016, a person votes for their favorite candidate and ranks the other candidates by their order of preference. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the last-place candidate gets knocked out and the ballots cast for them are reallocated based on an algorithm that factors the voters' preferences. That process continues until one candidate has a majority.
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