Sunday, September 16, 2018
Brett Kavanaugh's pal was Mark Judge
The New York Times reported that the friend the woman alleged to be in the room with Kavanaugh was conservative writer Mark Judge, who attended Georgetown Prep with the nominee. On Friday, Judge told the Weekly Standard that no such incident took place. “It’s just absolutely nuts,” he said. “I never saw Brett act that way.” ... The amount of drinking Judge describes himself undertaking [at the time] might suggest that his memory of those days may not be entirely reliable.
Saturday, September 15, 2018
Barack Obama March 3, 2009: "Buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it"
Here, after the 10 minute mark.
S&P 500, average nominal per annum return March 2009 - August 2018: 17.51%
Friday, September 14, 2018
Inflated death totals from Puerto Rico study not backed up by any names or cause of death
Julie Kelly, here:
There is just one little problem with the inflated death toll: There are no names of the newly-found victims or hundreds of bodies to be buried. The GWU research team reached the higher figure by comparing predicted fatalities to observed fatalities between September 2017 and February 2018. ... Also, the researchers did not specify how the nearly 3,000 people died. Lynn Goldman, the dean of the school that produced the report, confirmed the study’s limitations, telling the Washington Post, “we can come up with a hundred different hypotheses. What we don’t have is the ability today to tell you these are the factors that caused this.” The team also noted that mortality rates in low-income areas of the country were still elevated even past the study’s time frame, which could call into question the legitimacy of blaming all excess deaths on the storm.
Thursday, September 13, 2018
Indirect deaths from hurricanes from 1963-2012 numbered 1,418 but Maria in Puerto Rico alone caused 2,911?
My mother died of old age related heart failure two days after Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana in 2008:
My mother wasn't counted among the 41 indirect deaths in Louisiana, for the main reason that she died in a different state.
But . . .
Looking at 59 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin from 1963 through 2012, the study found that those systems killed a combined 1,803 people directly – by forces like flooding and airborne debris that were caused by the storm itself. But there were also a slew of lingering impacts that proved deadly in those storms, which caused 1,418 "indirect" deaths, according to the findings. ... Nearly half of the indirect deaths attributed to these 59 hurricanes were heart attacks, according to the study's data. Automobile accidents were also a major threat to life, whether the crashes occurred during evacuation or after the storm.
So we're supposed to believe tonight that about 2,911 (2,975-64) Puerto Ricans died indirectly in consequence of one storm (Maria) over the next six months according to the new math of George Washington University and Harvard University when over the course of nearly 50 years' worth of hurricanes indirect deaths for all storms combined came to just 1,418.
Sure we are.
Habeas corpus: Puerto Rico study showing 2,975 deaths not "a traditional death-toll accounting"
Normally one counts up the bodies, makes a list and checks it twice. But nothing in Puerto Rico is normal.
Reported here:
Researchers at George Washington University determined last month that Hurricane Maria alone resulted in 2,975 'excess deaths' in Puerto Rico.
That finding wasn't the result of a traditional death-toll accounting, but a public health study that compared mortality in the six months following the storm with the number of deaths that would have been expected if it had not hit the island.
'The difference between those two numbers is the estimate of excess mortality due to the hurricane,' the scientists wrote.
G@@gl& scientist resigns due to company's compliance with China's censorship and surveillance demands
Quoted here in The Intercept:
“Due to my conviction that dissent is fundamental to functioning democracies, I am forced to resign in order to avoid contributing to, or profiting from, the erosion of protection for dissidents.”
“I view our intent to capitulate to censorship and surveillance demands in exchange for access to the Chinese market as a forfeiture of our values and governmental negotiating position across the globe,” he wrote, adding: “There is an all-too-real possibility that other nations will attempt to leverage our actions in China in order to demand our compliance with their security demands.” ...
[H]e is surprised more of the company’s employees have not quit over Dragonfly.
It's taken incompetent Puerto Rico eleven months to raise its official death toll from 64 to 2,975, just in time for the election
But in all that time incompetent Puerto Rico still hasn't made use of the millions of water bottles still sitting on a runway in Ceiba.
Puerto Rico's governor last month raised the U.S. territory's official death toll from Hurricane Maria from 64 to 2,975. The storm, which devastated the territory last September, is also estimated to have caused $100 billion in damage.
Flashback to the story from 2 November 2017.
Bottled water can be hard to find and gets expensive, said her aunt, Maria Ortiz, 66. “If you are lucky to find some, a pack of 24 water bottles that used to be $3.99 now is about $7.50,” she said.
They can't count, and they can't even drink.
The Hill: "Puerto Rico's government raised its official death toll which previously sat at 64"
But the culture of complaint that is Puerto Rico wasn't satisfied with the low number, so they commissioned a study to add deaths six months out from the post-hurricane period:
[A] George Washington University study commissioned by Puerto Rico's governor examin[ed] the effects of Maria in the six months following landfall in September 2017.
The long time period was used to determine the hurricane's lingering effect on deaths on the island. It compared the death rates in the post-hurricane period to other periods not affected by natural disasters.
Only in the minds of lunatics is the number of deaths from Maria 1,175 worse than from Katrina (1,800 estimated total deaths). This new methodology of liberal math is just in time for the politics of the current hurricane season, and coincides with Obama's ridiculous claim that this economic recovery is his, not Trump's.
The story is here.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
David Dayen thinks Tim Geithner's disobedience of Obama's orders fed the anger at government Trump parlayed into the presidency
Of course, this begs the question whether Obama knew what he was doing, or even wanted to know.
Here in The New Republic:
Every action fit Geithner’s worldview: The financial system must be stabilized at all costs, as the only way to heal the economy so real people benefit. “We do not need to imagine that he was in the pocket of any one bank,” Adam Tooze wrote in the new book Crashed. “It was his commitment to the system that dictated that Citigroup should not be broken up.” ...
Today, some may welcome the internal dissension in the Trump administration. But Geithner’s actions to protect banks from the president he served, and the anger it bred at a “rigged” system, diminished the public’s faith in government intervention and helped install Trump in the White House.
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Who ya gonna believe, the mayor or the cops?
Numerous people called police to report an exultant crowd on the roof of 2801 John F. Kennedy Blvd., a distinctive, five-story apartment building at the intersection of Sip Avenue, said retired officer Arthur Teeter, who worked in the radio room at police headquarters on Sept. 11. ... Teeter, the officer who worked in the radio room, said the address was one of several where 911 callers cited rooftop celebrations. "There were enough calls that it was disturbing," he said. "That's the only word I can use." ...
The officers, including a high-ranking official, said their reluctance to speak publicly also stemmed from concern they would run afoul of Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who has repeatedly said celebrations did not take place. "I saw it with my own eyes," the ranking officer said. "In the end, police officers are professionals, so we just observed that stuff and sucked it up."
The officers, including a high-ranking official, said their reluctance to speak publicly also stemmed from concern they would run afoul of Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who has repeatedly said celebrations did not take place. "I saw it with my own eyes," the ranking officer said. "In the end, police officers are professionals, so we just observed that stuff and sucked it up."
Seventeen years later America still has 8,475 soldiers in Afghanistan
And Afghanistan has a record 810,000 acres producing opium.
Oliver Bullough for The Grauniad blames all the wealth inequality today on an invention of a Jewish banker
Siegmund George Warburg, here, whose invention destroyed the Bretton Woods system.
Except Bullough never mentions he's the descendant of a long line of Jewish bankers who originated in Venice:
One banker in particular was not prepared to tolerate this: Siegmund Warburg. Warburg was an outsider in the cosy world of the City. For one thing, he was German. For another, he hadn’t given up on the idea that a City banker’s job was to hustle for business. In 1962, Warburg learned from a friend at the World Bank that some $3bn was circulating outside the US – sloshing around and ready to be put to use. Warburg had been a banker in Germany in the 1920s and remembered arranging bond deals in foreign currencies. Why couldn’t his bankers do something similar again?
Investors Business Daily thinks no one noticed Obama's recent public embrace of Bernie's radical socialism
Here.
We noticed. We just didn't mention it because we've been pointing out Obama's socialism for nine years already. Yawn.
But Obama was only a fair weather friend of socialism for most of that time because most of the Democrat Party remained neoliberal. Nothing points up his lackluster leadership and servile character throughout that time better than his constant fear of a backlash from the neoliberal wing of a party he supposedly led. Actually it led him. Obama was relieved to wash his hands of the economic crisis and delegated fixing it to Bill Clinton's neoliberal retreads. The guy couldn't even take the socialist baton of Pelosi's single payer plan for crying out loud, or embrace a Paul Krugman approved properly sized stimulus spending bill. And making the Bush tax cuts permanent? That was hardly the work of the leader (in his head) of world socialism.
Freed from the strictures of politics, Obama is now free to advance his fanciful sympathies without consequences, as long as the wind is blowing in that direction. My guess is the left wing of his party sees this as nothing more than his feeble attempt to be relevant again when to them he had already become an object of contempt by the end of 2009.
The author of Dreams from My Father is just dreamin', that's all. All he ever did.
Monday, September 10, 2018
Two months out Real Clear Politics has just nine Republican seats "likely" going Democrat: That's no blue wave
Democrats and liberals, however, want you to think it's already hopeless for Republicans. Like Al Hunt, who thinks Democrats will turn out because Trump is their great motivator to do so. Al, however, thinks the toss ups are already down to 20 to 25 seats. If it's true, as he thinks, that Republicans tend to reduce their polling deficits as the election nears, his already low estimation of the size of the field of prospects suggests this is a lot closer than he's willing to admit. The generic Congressional poll currently favors Democrats by +2 to +4 (Rasmussen). Remember Rasmussen had Hillary at +2. Al thinks the current math means Democrats need 23 seats to take the House. That means almost all of his toss ups have to flip.
Not likely!
USA Today had it right predicting Naomi Osaka's U.S. Open victory: Osaka had already whopped Serena back in March
Osaka already showed her hand. Back in March, she played Serena for the first time, showed no sense of nerves and rolled her 6-3, 6-2 in the first round in Miami. Now, that match doesn’t tell us much about how Osaka’s style will contrast with Serena’s in Saturday’s U.S. Open final, as the first match was just Serena’s fourth since returning from maternity leave and, as she’d later admit, she wasn’t in the right shape to be winning matches. Still, even with Serena playing at 40% of her capabilities, we saw how Osaka responded to seeing her across the net. There was no fear, no awe, no deference. Osaka says she often asks herself “what would Serena do?” And what Osaka did in that Miami match is exactly what a young Serena would have done to one of the stars of the game back in 1999. No fear. ... [I]n the past year, she’s defeated the world Nos. 1 and 2 in hard-court matches and took home the title at the prestigious Indian Wells tournament. ... PREDICTION: Naomi Osaka in straight sets.
Serena is an old cow (36) compared to Osaka (20). So is Roger Federer (37), who didn't lose recently just because it was hot and humid. Tiger Woods is 42 and hasn't won anything important in ten years but keeps trying. The old bulls fall to the young bucks, eventually, that's nature's way.
The old bulls just don't want to accept it sometimes, that's all. And then out come the excuses. Too bad for tennis that this time the excuses were political. But hey, Kaepernick paved the way. Expect more of the same.
Personally I can't wait for Osaka to cream Serena again.
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