Andrew Yarrow: Over 20 million men are not employed, five times the official 4 million

Excerpted from his book Man Out, here:

We’re left with the reality that the percentage of men not employed today is about three times what it was during the Truman and Eisenhower eras: well over 20 million men. Not the four million officially deemed to be unemployed.

The unemployment level for men averaged 4.18 million in 2016 and 3.73 million in 2017.

Noah Smith embraces the Trump narrative: "There’s no doubt that the U.S. economy is in a boom"

Here for Bloomberg.

After examining several indicators, which, however, are not unequivocal for their interpretation despite saying "no doubt", Noah Smith comes down on the side of improved sentiment as the cause of the current "boom".

On that we agree. There's a boom in sentiment.

The problem is, too many people are importing that improved sentiment into their reading of the data, and into their choice of the data.

For example, Smith focuses on job openings to unemployed, which is a tiny measure (6.66 million in June) of what's really going on in the labor market. But the broadest measures of unemployment still show 15.9 million unemployed, underemployed, and no longer counted in the labor force. There is still huge slack in the labor market, which is one reason why wages for the vast majority of workers are not rising like they would in a real economic boom (2.7% y/y in July vs. in the 4s in 2006/7).

Similarly Smith discusses the percent of population employed aged 25-54, but clearly misses that it's most definitely not "back to 2006 levels" as he claims (H1 2018 is at 79.2%, still below the 2006 average of 79.8% and also below the average of either half of 2006). The broadest measure of the percent employed, on the other hand, still shows a huge gap between now and the pre-Great Recession average when over 6 million more were employed than are at present (60.5% now vs. 62.9% then, on average).

The case is similar with domestic investment.

Smith chooses to highlight "Shares of gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment: Fixed investment: Nonresidential (A008RE1Q156NBEA)" to show that "investment as a percentage of the economy is at about the level of the mid-2000s boom". But the current level in H1 2018 at 13.7% is also identical to H2 2014. Was that indicative of a boom? Did we blink and miss it? How about in H1 2008 when it was again at 13.7%? Was that indicative of a boom? If so, why did the economy then promptly crash in H2 2008?

A broader measure of domestic investment, however, "Shares of gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment (A006RE1Q156NBEA)", shows us well off the 2006 peak and even the more recent 2015 level. Whatever we call what we have right now, the current 17.7% is still far below the 19.8% level of H1 2006, which itself failed to equal the boom level of the year 2000 (19.9%).

With all that cash unleashed by the tax reforms and sloshing around in the economy, one would think things would look a lot better than this, which simply shows that most of that money indeed went elsewhere.

GDP has been temporarily goosed by the tax reforms in concert with a fresh gusher of federal deficit spending. But those are one-offs. They will not, and cannot, be repeated over and over again in short succession.

We know what comes next.

We're missing 6.2 million jobs in July 2018 because only 60.5% are working

Democrats want you to know House candidate Abigail Spanberger was just monkeying around teaching at an Islamic school in DC

Democratic House candidate Abigail Spanberger suffers the kind of election year smear John McCain would recognize [thanks to a Postal Service error divulging the information]:

The Republican firm says it got the form by mistake from the Postal Service, where Spanberger once worked as a postal inspector. The Postal Service on Thursday apologized for its "human error."

That doesn't explain how a mistake of that magnitude occurred so rapidly. Spanberger requested her own personnel records months ago and hasn't received them. ...

Outraged Democrats, fearing other candidates remain at risk, have demanded a federal investigation. Without elaboration, the Postal Service says "a small number of additional requests for information from personnel files were improperly processed."

Ah, you can't get your own mail but somebody else can! The incompetent big government wanted by most Democrats, and too many Republicans, just keeps on giving.

Hm, the famous Chuck Berry wrote and recorded his fifth single "Too Much Monkey Business" in 1956

"Too Much Monkey Business" is a song written and recorded by Chuck Berry, released by Chess Records in September 1956 as his fifth single. It was also released as the third track on his first solo LP, After School Session, in May 1957; and as an EP. The single reached number four on Billboard magazine's Most Played In Juke Boxes chart, number 11 on the Most Played by Jockeys chart and number seven on the Top Sellers in Stores chart in 1956. -- Wikipedia

Listen to it here.

It's not an economic beum, you fools

At the end of 2017 we still had 14 million more on food stamps than at the pre-Great Recession average

16.5% of the U.S. population was on food stamps on average in 2017, versus 11% on average from 1973-2008.

In 2017 over 42 million received food help from the program, but only 28 million would have had the average receiving help returned to 11%.

In the first five months of 2018 the percentage receiving help has fallen to 15.4% on average, implying a smaller gap of about 11.6 million.

The trend is in the right direction, but we are hardly back to normal.

Hey Hey They're The Monkeys: Democrats say they monkey around

In death John McCain remains the jerk he was in life: Sarah Palin, his running mate in 2008, excluded from his funeral

Reported here.

Hopeless Arizonans choose another immigration squish, A-10 pilot Martha McSally, to run for resigning Flake's US Senate seat

Republican McSally (AZ-2), who could be a man masquerading as a woman for all we know and appears to have been flying solo since the annulment of her marriage in 1999, faces openly bisexual Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9) for the Senate seat in November.

As in many other states, independents may vote in Republican Party primaries in Arizona.

Steep, sustained increases in new STD infections in the last five years, not seen for twenty

Reported here:

[N]early 2.3 million cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea and syphilis were diagnosed in the U.S. in 2017, surpassing the record set in 2016 by more than 200,000, CDC scientists reported Tuesday. ... CDC researchers found that gonorrhea diagnoses increased by 67 percent — from 333,004 to 555,608 — in just five years. ... Syphilis diagnoses, which rose by 76 percent, from 17,357 to 30,644, were mostly in men. ... The chlamydia rate held relatively steady with more than 1.7 million cases diagnosed in 2017, just a few percentage points above where it was in 2013.

Why does it take a Lanny Davis to teach Glenn Greenwald that GoFundMe is ground zero for gg...grifters?

Honest liberal Glenn Greenwald reminds the world about the media's chronic, systematic, reckless reporting of fake news

Including about CNN's latest lies about what Cohen's got on Trump, here in The Intercept:

When reporting on that story, I detailed just some of the similarly significant and false stories major outlets have published on this story over the last eighteen months, notably always in the same direction, pushing the same narrative interests:

• Russia hacked into the U.S. electric grid to deprive Americans of heat during winter (Wash Post)
• An anonymous group (PropOrNot) documented how major U.S. political sites are Kremlin agents (Wash Post)
• WikiLeaks has a long, documented relationship with Putin (Guardian)
• A secret server between Trump and a Russian bank has been discovered (Slate)
• RT hacked C-SPAN and caused disruption in its broadcast (Fortune)
• Russians hacked into a Ukrainian artillery app (Crowdstrike)
• Russians attempted to hack elections systems in 21 states (multiple news outlets, echoing Homeland Security)
• Links have been found between Trump ally Anthony Scaramucci and a Russian investment fund under investigation (CNN)

Whatever words one wishes to use to defend the U.S. media’s conduct here, “rare” and “isolated” are not among those that can be credibly invoked. Far more accurate are “chronic,” “systematic” and “reckless.”

Agent admits FBI leaks info to get it into the news, reports about which are then used by FBI to get FISA warrants

The practice is similar to the FBI's common practice of identifying potential "terrorists" whom FBI agents then suborn to commit criminal acts by posing as terrorists themselves.

From the story here:

A top FBI special agent admitted to House committees last week that bureau officials were known to leak information to the press and then use the resulting articles to help obtain surveillance warrants. 

Special Agent Jonathan Moffa, who worked with controversial former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, testified last Friday behind closed doors before the House Judiciary Committee and House Oversight Committee. 

A source with knowledge of his testimony confirmed to Fox News that Moffa said FBI personnel would use media reports based on information they leaked to justify applications for Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrants.

Japan's Shinzo Eeyore-Abe meets with China's Xi Jinpingpoo

Innocent Japanese school girls were legitimate targets of the American atomic bombs

Technological advancement means that now neither you nor the freak show have to travel to see each other

The Muppets' version of Luther's Von den Juden und ihren Lügen (January 1543)

Glenn Greenwald was not happy with The Intercept for its incompetent exposure of Reality Winner

Easy for him to say. She's the one paying the price for trusting The Intercept. Oh well, just another victim of a drone attack, or something.

Maybe the founder of eBay, Pierre Omidyar, should ask for his money back.

From a profile of Greenwald, here:

Greenwald went on to describe his frustration with an Intercept story, published last summer, that was based on an N.S.A. report leaked by Reality Winner, an N.S.A. contractor. The article described an attempt by Russian military intelligence to introduce malware into the computers of U.S. election officials in 2016. In Greenwald’s view, the story was overblown: the N.S.A. analysis included no underlying evidence. Before publication, Greenwald vetoed a suggestion that Snowden be invited to examine the leaked material. “I said, ‘I think it’s not a very good idea to send a top-secret N.S.A. document that purports to describe Russia to Russia.’ ” He laughed. “Not even I would look very kindly on that, if I were in the Trump Justice Department.” He was also dismayed, as many people were, that the Intercept had not properly disguised the document before showing it to the government for verification, making it easy for Winner to be identified as its leaker; she was arrested shortly after publication. The Intercept apologized, and supported her legal defense. The site “fucked up,” Greenwald said. He added that, if he didn’t work there, he might be wondering aloud why nobody was fired. (On August 23rd, Winner was sentenced to five years in prison.)

Remembering when Mario Draghi really, truly got it (sort of)

"Five years ago today, Mario Draghi saved the euro", by Eshe Nelson, July 26, 2017:

But with a simple, seemingly off-the-cuff phrase, Draghi fundamentally changed the course of events: “whatever it takes.”

At a speech in London on July 26, 2012, the ECB president gave an account of the euro-zone economy. Bond yields of weak euro-member governments were soaring, and traders doubted that national, euro- or EU-level institutions could get their act together in time to avert disaster. Draghi sought to convince international investors that the region’s economy wasn’t as bad as it seemed. He then made the momentous remark:

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” ... the promise was enough to calm investors and bring down bond yields across the euro zone.