Six years and four months went by: Jan 2008-May 2014.
And economic confidence actually declined from -11 in 2012 to -10 in 2014 when it did!
It's one of the craziest things in US political history, comparable to FDR getting re-elected throughout the Great Depression, which his economic experimentation only made worse.
By October 2012, 72% said the effects of the Great Recession were still the most important problem, compared to 43% today in October 2024, but it didn't matter that Obama wasn't solving it. He beat Romney anyway.
Is this one of those sometimes?
The same phenomenon may be happening today, but in reverse.
Harris stands to lose despite economic indicators which are chugging along in her favor, or at least not falling apart, to which those 43% seem oblivious.
Civilian employment in July and September 2024 remains near the November 2023 peak. Core inflation is still too high at 2.7%, but it isn't in the 5s anymore like it was for four straight quarters. Congress has thrown the book at the economy since 2Q2020, with nominal GDP growing at an astounding 9.84% compound annual rate because of pandemic spending. That's been a double-edged sword, however, exploding the national debt, inflation, and interest rates.
But economic confidence is Obama-like negative, and has been since it crashed during the pandemic in April 2020 to -32 from its highest level in 20 years under Trump just two months before, in February 2020 at +41.
Trump didn't shut down the economy in 2020, but governors sure did. It was a stark demonstration of just how quickly the wrong leadership can make everything go to hell in a hand basket overnight. The people today aren't wrong to lack confidence.
Ominously for incumbent VP Harris, Gallup thinks 2024 is most analogous to 1992, when Americans booted the incumbent Bush 41 even though the recession had ended more than a year before in 1991.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans (52%) say they and
their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while
39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the
same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential
election years in which Gallup has asked the question. ...
With a majority of Americans feeling they are not better off than four
years ago, economic confidence remaining low, and less than half of
Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job, the economy will be an important consideration at the ballot box this year.
As inflation persists and economic concerns dominate voters' minds, the
upcoming election may hinge on which candidate can best address these
pressing issues.
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