Dec 5, 2016 |
More than 2.5 million cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea & syphilis reported in 2019
TL;dr : The same thing.
India reached 3.6% fully vaccinated against C19 on about June 19th.
India's cases per million metric fell 83% from its May 8th peak to June 18th (from 283.5 to 48.07).
Vaccines had nothing to do with the drop.
The US reached 3.6% fully vaccinated against C19 way back on Feb 12th.
US peak cases per million occurred about a month before that, on about Jan 8th, at 758.56.
On Feb 12th cases per million had fallen to 293.61, or by 61%.
Vaccines had nothing to do with it.
Virus gonna virus.
Click any chart to enlarge.
Here:
Will there come a day when fed-up Americans push back against all this stuff? Yes.
How long have I been hearing that one? My whole life?
Normie conservatives like Kass are hope peddlers little different from the utopians of the left, little different from those Christians who keep falsely predicting the Second Coming of Christ, heralds all of a future which never comes, or of one which at best miserably disappoints.
From time to time the hope of the left does become reality, but incrementally and dimly reflective of the real thing, now pallid in appearance (the New Deal), now grotesque as the case may be (happy Birthing Person Day), while the hope of the right never so much as impedes this interminable process slouching leftward.
The normie right never asks itself why this is so, why conservatism is so impotent.
The answer is the left has a stronger faith than the right. It is why the left is in the streets burning the place down and the right just sits on its hands.
How different were the people of the American founding era, who saw no contradiction with their religion in taking up arms against an unbridled king. Today's conservatives are the loyalists of the founding era, hiding in their homes lest the unbridled find them out.
America today has been turned on its head. Secular faith has replaced religious faith. Down is Up, Left is Right, Evil is Good, Bondage is Freedom. America is the Crown of 1776, ripe for a counterrevolution.
Shall it be prevented?
Americans like Thomas Jefferson called for watering the tree of liberty from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
By their fruit ye shall know them.
Any which way to stay in the game, the ka-ching ka-ching ka-ching game, not to be confused with conservatism.
The American experiment is fragile. It has always been fragile and always will be fragile because it is so extremely unnatural. ‘Unnatural’ in this context means in conflict with human nature. Jonah Goldberg has described the fragility of the American system by comparing it to a garden hacked out of a tropical jungle. A garden surrounded by jungle is unnatural. The gardeners must tend it with unremitting care lest the jungle return.
More.
What's unnatural is Murray's perennial insistence that America was not a real nation where Englishmen revolted because they were denied their "chartered rights", who hoped to secure that nation "to ourselves and our posterity" as our Constitution says. Whether one believes their claim was legitimate or not is irrelevant to the history. An America populated as a nation by Englishmen who made that argument is a fact and shows they were a nation in their own minds, and nothing the left libertarians can say will ever change that, try as they may.
That opening sentence simply begs the question. You are asked to believe something else, that the first Americans didn't actually behave as a tribe whose members were loyal to each other and didn't already have a long history together before 1776. Which of course is ridiculous.
The violence done to this original American idea by libertarians, Lincoln and his worshippers, liberals, leftists, and other assorted lunatics is what is unnatural. It's they who have the identity crisis. They don't fit in here because our institutions survive from the founding and constantly remind them that they are misfits. They represent the foreign element, and usually are the main advocates for increasing the foreign element.
Instead give me millions upon millions of Italian Americans like Antonin Scalia who bowed to America as an Anglo Saxon nation, instead of this horde of harpies for every heresy.
"Since the United States government recognizes this man to be Santa Claus, this court will not dispute it."
Juneteenth, which falls on June 19, marks the date that the last enslaved African Americans were granted their freedom. On that day in 1865, Union soldiers led by Gen. Gordon Granger arrived in the coastal city of Galveston, Texas, to deliver General Order No. 3, officially ending slavery in the state.
The final act of liberation came months after the Confederate Army’s surrender ended the Civil War, and more than two years after President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation.
Lincoln was assassinated on April 15, 1865, two months before his proclamation made it to Texas. ...
“I often equate Juneteenth with our country’s inability to communicate,” said House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. “The failure to communicate kept them in slavery for another two and half years.”
From the story:
Peak temperatures are forecast to reach 115 degrees Fahrenheit (46°C) in interior California through the week, according to the state's electric grid operator, which warned the biggest supply deficit could occur on Thursday after the sun goes down and solar power is no longer available. ...
On Wednesday, solar power was providing about 30% of California ISO's supply, and the grid warned that it would be unlikely to be able to rely on additional supplies from other states due to the extreme heat hitting much of the Western United States.
The ISO was currently getting 13% of its power from other states. The ISO has said it expects to have about 50,734 MW of supply available this summer, but some of that comes from solar.
102,000 MW of coal-fired electric capacity was retired from 2010-2019, over 38,000 MW alone in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Another 17,000 MW is scheduled to be retired by 2025.
The EIA blamed "flat electricity demand growth" during the decade for the retirements.
It should have blamed Obama, under whom real GDP grew at a rate worse than during the Great Depression.
But YOU elected him.
Twice.
Jason Lewis' remedy for inflation, which came in at 5% year over year in May, actually 4.9%, is the standard remedy: The Fed should raise the interest rate, which is effectively zero at the moment and has been for some time.
Aggressive low-interest-rate policy has been the rule since 2002, with the brief escalation from 2005-2007 during the housing bubble being the exception. Over those 19 years through 2020, the average effective federal funds rate (DFF) has been 1.36%.
Contrast that with the 19 year period previous to that, from 1983-2001, when the DFF averaged 6.27%.
That should have kept inflation under control, right?
Well, no.
Under the low interest rate regime we've had an average annual change in CPI of just 2.01%. For the previous period with the higher DFF we had higher inflation, 3.24% per annum on average.
All inflation is bad. At 2% per annum the value of your pile of assets is cut in half in 35 years. At 3% it's closer to 20 years.
What kind of conservatism is it to advocate for either one?
Real conservatives believe in sound money. Less unsound money won't do.
The evidence is the two things, the fed funds rate and CPI, aren't correlated.
And CPI is rightly mocked because its components do not capture the inflation which has infected the cost of education, health care, housing, stocks, gold, intellectual property, et cetera in our life times.
It's the purchasing power of the dollar which has continued its inexorable decline which is the problem. We haven't had a sound dollar policy since the advent of the Great War in 1914. The desire for an independent monetary policy conducted by a Federal Reserve from 1913 came at the price of the ongoing robbery of the wealth of the people. World War couldn't have been financed without it, nor the Welfare State after it.
It's hardly a coincidence that political conservatism has been in retreat from the same time. You make a lie of the money in your pocket, you make a lie of everything else, too. Slowly at first, and then suddenly.
This American swindle will not continue forever.
Alles in Ordnung.
Cases per million are steady at the new lows.
Deaths per million continue to fall to new lows.
Hospitalizations are almost 10 times lower than they were at the peak in January.
Test positivity is bouncing off the bottom at 2%.
Despite non-stop vaccination propaganda, the curve is bending with not quite 52% having received at least one dose.
Click on any chart to enlarge.
The UK variant continues to dominate in every US state, with prevalence well over 50% in most places. The latest scare from Fauci is about an India variant, but so far prevalence of an India variant is highest only in Arkansas at 10.1%. A Brazilian variant has 25.1% prevalence in Illinois. New York variants are prevalent in a range of 20-22% in New York, New Jersey, and North Carolina.
-- Oswald Spengler, The Hour of Decision (London: George Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1934), p. 40f.
At this rate there won't be anyone left to resign when the FDA approves coronavirus vaccines next year or the year following.
Story here.
. . . and yet he still insists on the principle of non-violence from the people to put it down. We should just sit there and take it, watch our cities, businesses and homes burn down while the government does NOTHING.
I don't expect normie conservatism EVER to advocate watering the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants and their mobs.
This is because normie conservatism is really just Republicanism. Its roots do not go back further than Lincoln and his "project" for racial equality, which was in truth nothing but a demagogue's ploy to keep from losing a war. And because of this it has disarmed itself for every other political conflict except for the cause of racial equality. For THAT they will gladly destroy the country and see it destroyed, but otherwise won't lift a finger when BLM and Antifa come knocking.
This is why Republicanism failed to stop the income tax and women's suffrage, Social Security and the welfare state, abortion and gay marriage, and a whole host of other things large and small they said they were against over the years but on which they eventually caved, and then eventually championed. It's the reason "conservatism" has failed, because Republicans aren't conservatives. They are, according to their own lights, simply better versions of Democrats.
For this reason Republicanism can never be about the American Founding, protest to the contrary as it may, boast otherwise as it may. Lincoln destroyed the Founding and redefined the country, by force of arms!, and Republicans are stuck with it, and we with them, unless someone can recover the original spirit of liberty. And Democrats exist to never let them forget it, to make them live by their new principles which only tie their hands and guarantee their ongoing defeat.
Meanwhile, don't look for the Founding spirit from Noon to 3 let alone from 6 to 9. Instead look for more of the same game played by Rush Limbaugh, the "they're the real racists" game.
Race, race, race. Black unemployment was never lower than under Trump. Hunter Biden said the n-word and the fag-word and gets away with it. Blah, blah, blah, as your kid can't find a decent job to start his own life.
Which is kinda mentally ill.
I mean, come on, the tip of the spear was Ashli Babbitt, who had an unusual personal life, reminiscent of Katie Hill.
The percentage supporting same sex marriage has jumped 15 points since 2016, with a clear majority of 55% of the GOP now supporting same sex marriage.
To quote Andrew Cuomo, America was never really that great. Until now that is.
In the line-up today at Real Clear Politics is one Buck Sexton, who tells us in "Following Rush Limbaugh" . . . not very much.
Is there any there there? is the question I have after reading this introduction to the man who is supposed to be the conservative in the duo taking over for Rush Limbaugh.
Since radio is a word business and this piece reads more like an apologia for his elevation to his new role than a taste of what to expect, it's not a good sign that this Buckaroo calls Rush's opening monologues "severely entertaining".
Is Buck Sexton a Mormon? I mean, this sounds like Mitt Romney, who trotted out his wife to assure Republicans that he was a conservative, and not long after addressed CPAC and called himself "a severely conservative Republican governor".
I know, I know. It's just a coincidence that this Jesuit-trained fellow sounds like the Mormon. But if you have to tell people you thought Rush was severely entertaining, maybe to you he really wasn't. At any rate, severe is not a word which ever came to mind when listening to Rush Limbaugh.
Then there's Stephen L. Miller, whose Twitter feed is enormously entertaining @redsteeze , but whose prose offerings are, shall we say, stilted? The guy writes like he's got a brick up his ass.
Taking yet another much-deserved whack at CNN's Brian Stelter, Miller not entertainingly resorts to wooden stock phrases like "petty star-gazing", "it should raise eyebrows", "not becoming of anyone", "all fine and good", "all well and good", and "for anyone wondering . . . look no further". With all this lumber neatly stacked in a pile, the final paragraph ends with mistakes like "gleamed off" for "gleaned off" and "who claim to be just as a rigorous and dedicated journalist as Brian".
Yes, Stelter falls far short as a journalist. It's good that a mediocre writer points it out to all the people who obviously ignore Brian Stelter by the millions. It's an easy beat for Miller to cover, but maybe he should move on.
Miller claims to be good at hockey. I hear Clay Travis has left an opening somewhere.
Then there's a Democrat over at The Hill wondering "whatever happened to conservatism?"
When you get to paragraph seven you'll learn that Jan 6 was an "armed insurrection" and, if you're living in reality, you'll stop reading there.
But if you are a glutton for punishment and read to the end, you'll learn that the answer is The John Birch Society finally won the battle for the soul of the Republican Party.
I'm sure the five people still alive who ever knew an actual John Bircher will find that extremely amusing, if for no other reason than "that's what they WANT you to think".
Have a day.
I don’t ever want to see Donald Trump again. He had these people’s number, in a way, but he did little or nothing effective to stop them. I want to vote for a presidential candidate who will move against these dirtbags and their institutions without mercy. Enough is enough. I’m not sure what can be done, but if we keep tolerating this, there is going to be violence, one way or another. I am not willing to sit here and listen to these aristocrats like Dr. Khilanani, and malignant institutions like Yale, turn people against me, my children, and my neighbors, because we are white.
The current case rate of 44.11/million yields about 14,600 cases daily nationwide.
The current death rate of 1.27/million yields about 420 deaths daily nationwide, which sustained over a year would yield about 150k deaths.
Using New York Times data, deaths from Mar 7-Jun 6 = 72582, cases = 4,334,762 for a case fatality rate of 1.67%. That's 6.7% lower than the rate which obtained during the first year of the pandemic to 3/7/21, which was 1.79% using the data compiled by covidtracking dot com.
It remains to be seen if we'll see a repeat of last winter. The rapid decline of cases after the first of the year before the mass vaccination effort took hold suggests the disease is seasonal like influenza. Apart from the initial appearance of the disease, the graphs below all suggest late autumn seasonality.
We won't really know how effective the vaccines are until they are put up against the next seasonal test.
44/million on 6-5-21 |
1.27/million on 6-5-21 |
16856 on 6-5-21 |
2.8% on 6-1-21 |
"The republicans made me seize power".
You know whose side they are on when people talk like this. Spengler long ago observed how liberalism is all about tyranny, but does anyone still read him?
"The dictatorship of the bourgeoisie is all that Liberalism sets out to be."
The voices opposed to the US Senate filibuster, are, to put it bluntly, not related to our founding.
Caesar would soon seize autocratic power, and Cato would commit suicide rather than live under Caesar’s rule. Goodman and Soni argue Cato’s obstructionism — however high-minded — was a contributing factor to the Roman Republic’s collapse. America’s Founding Fathers, however, idolized Cato. George Washington’s soldiers staged a play about Cato at Valley Forge. Patrick Henry’s famous quote, “Give me liberty of give me death,” is derived from a line in that play.
One year of COVID-19 infected ~ 8.67% of the US population.
The average influenza year produces a similar result: about 8%.
Deaths are another matter entirely.
A typical flu year involves 36,000 deaths, or about 11/100k at current population.
COVID-19 gave us roughly 515k deaths in one year, March on March, or about 155/100k.
C19 has been 14 times more deadly than the flu.
But will it continue to be?
At this same point last year there were about 27k more dead from C19 than there are today, 108k vs. 81k.
Keep in mind that there are only just so many people with comorbidities and other vulnerabilities to fuel the death fire.
Think of it as fair value.
Another way to get there:
GDP(63) = S&P fair value
$22.061 trillion x 63 = 1390
That formula worked for most of the post-war up until the Trump era. The fancy regression analysis done by the geeks always came up pretty close to the same result, but not lately.
Still another way to look at it:
S&P 500 4230 / GDP 22.061 = 192.
That's an elevated ratio which was common before 1929, but we've never seen such levels in the post-war.
Sum ting funny goin' on.
My dad served in France and Belgium. He never talked about it much at all, when I was growing up or when I became old enough to understand.
We didn't "celebrate" the day or otherwise mark it in any way. Neither did anyone else. Same with most of the "war" holidays.
They just wanted to forget the war and move on.
And they did.
They were young and had lives to live.
The war sucked.