Glenn Greenwald thinks the FBI is overreaching and abusing its power

The FBI’s Investigation of Trump as a “National Security Threat” is Itself a Serious Danger. But J. Edgar Hoover Pioneered the Tactic:

If Trump’s foreign policy is misguided or “threatening,” that’s a matter for the Congress and/or the American public, not the FBI. However “threatening” one regards Trump’s foreign policy relating to Russia, the FBI’s abuse of its powers to investigate an elected official due to disagreement with his ideology or foreign policy views is at least as dangerous, it not more so, and the fact that those policy disagreements are characterized as “national security threats” does not make those actions any less threatening or abusive – whether for Trump, Henry Wallace or George McGovern.

It’s certainly possible, as the always-smart Harvard Law Professor and former Bush DOJ official Jack Goldsmith wrote at Lawfare, that the FBI had far more grounds that is currently known for opening this investigation. But based on what we do know, Goldsmith adeptly argues, there is a potentially disturbing incident of serious overreach of the FBI’s role and grave abuse of its vast investigative powers. While Goldsmith is clear that he is not yet adopting this view – in part because some facts are unknown and in part because the Constitutional issues are murky – he lays out what the potential dangers are . . ..

'Camp Fire' incinerates Paradise, the "most destructive wildfire since record-keeping began" in California

Reported here:

Not a single resident of Paradise, California, can be seen anywhere in town after most of them fled the Northern California community that may be lost forever. Most of the town's buildings are in ruin. Entire neighborhoods are leveled. The business district is destroyed.

In a single day, the Sierra Nevada foothill town of 27,000 was largely incinerated by flames that moved so fast there was nothing firefighters could do. Only a day after the "Camp Fire" began, the blaze had grown on Friday to nearly 140 square miles and destroyed more than 6,700 structures, almost all of them homes -- making it California's most destructive wildfire since record-keeping began.

Authorities said at least nine people were killed by the "Camp Fire," which as of early Saturday morning was 5 percent contained.

It is one of three major blazes that firefighters are battling across the state.

In Southern California, the 35,000 acre "Woolsey Fire" was 0 percent contained early Saturday. It has forced over 200,000 evacuations. The "Hill Fire" was holding at 6,000 acres.

Despite alarmist headlines, Italy knows it can play chicken with the Euro cheaters up north and win because Super Mario will do "whatever it takes"

That's the lesson of Greece and Italy knows it. If there is no way the EU would let Greece go, there is no way Italy or Spain or Portugal are going to be let go, either.

Meanwhile, enjoy these alarmist headlines from a gold fundamentalist.

Italy Bond Yields Surge In Confrontation with ECB President Mario Draghi:

In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising.

"One Size Fits Germany" Math Impossibility, Get Your Money Out of Italy Now!:

[I]nterest rates are on the verge of spiraling out of control in Italy. ... In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The spread between German 10-year and Italian 10-year bonds is 330 basis points (3.3 percentage points). The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising. On September 28, Italy's proposed budget deficit of 2.4% sent bond yields soaring. And they haven't stopped.

The yield on the 10-year has been a lot higher for a long period of time than it is right now.

Everyone should relax and enjoy the show. Who knows, maybe this will force the other rule breakers to clean up their act a little bit, at least for a little while.

Oliver Bullough for The Grauniad blames all the wealth inequality today on an invention of a Jewish banker

Siegmund George Warburg, here, whose invention destroyed the Bretton Woods system.

Except Bullough never mentions he's the descendant of a long line of Jewish bankers who originated in Venice:

One banker in particular was not prepared to tolerate this: Siegmund Warburg. Warburg was an outsider in the cosy world of the City. For one thing, he was German. For another, he hadn’t given up on the idea that a City banker’s job was to hustle for business. In 1962, Warburg learned from a friend at the World Bank that some $3bn was circulating outside the US – sloshing around and ready to be put to use. Warburg had been a banker in Germany in the 1920s and remembered arranging bond deals in foreign currencies. Why couldn’t his bankers do something similar again?

People who advocate shunning Trumpsters are nothing more than latter-day Puritan theocrats, sans the theo

The Right Way to Shun the Trumpsters

Just when you think the religious Right had been expunged from the public square, the irreligious Left swoops in to fill the vacuum, inspired with all the same self-righteous zeal of the hypocritical Pharisee, but for lesser lights, and minus the deity:

"The solution is not to be Pelosi standing down, or Waters screaming in someone’s face, but to quietly shun those like the Golden Couple who could say something or do something but don’t. ... A nod or a stiff arm extended for a handshake to avoid the air kiss. No polite small talk and stay stuck to your chair when the music plays. Make it clear to them, in some quiet dignified way, that the border crisis is a bridge too far."

-- Margaret Carlson, who probably doesn't even know she's a Paulinist

But now I have written unto you not to keep company, if any man that is called a brother be a fornicator, or covetous, or an idolater, or a railer, or a drunkard, or an extortioner; with such an one no not to eat. -- I Cor.5:11

Be ye not unequally yoked together with unbelievers: for what fellowship hath righteousness with unrighteousness? and what communion hath light with darkness? ... Wherefore come out from among them, and be ye separate, saith the Lord, and touch not the unclean thing; and I will receive you, -- II Cor. 6:14ff.

Trump fired Tillerson, Goldstein and McEntee on Tuesday, now Sessions fires McCabe last night

Just a coincidence, right?

Story here.

The scam known as Informed Electorate PAC is quite the little money maker for its operators

A commenter has provided the website information from the State of Utah where the Informed Electorate PAC discloses its financials:

https://disclosures.utah.gov/Search/PublicSearch/FolderDetails/1414465

If you are one of the many contributors to this so-called PAC, your full name, address and contribution level are listed there.

And wow, there's an awful lot of gulls out there in America. It's a goldmine of a mailing list, free for the taking.

You'll also be fascinated to learn that for the "privilege" of paying these grifters to take your opinion, for that is what they are in my opinion, shameless grifters, they netted about $1.91 million in contributions in 2017 alone, of which about $1.79 million was expended.

On what? you ask.

Never heard of 'em, right? Most people haven't, which kind of gives the lie to their objective of informing anyone. I search in vain for itemized expenditures under "public relations". Instead I see lots of consulting fees and W-2 payrolls, evidently going to the principals.

Nearly $336,000 in 2017 went straight into the pockets of the President, Brett Payne, a board member Rob Andra, and someone named Joseph Demma, who appears to be related to Stacy Demma the Vice President (who is also the only other listed board member), and presumably the CFO Kenneth Kohfel and other unnamed employees. The reports show that the consulting fees in 2017 stopped being paid in July, and that the W-2 payroll line items start appearing once a month beginning in June.

A company named Fiercecom gets large sums regularly for data management, telephone services and fulfillment. Other regulars include Airespring, Heartland Payment Solutions and Skymail International.

One wonders if any of this PAC's principals have any personal business interests in any of the businesses which provide services back to the PAC.

Someone really ought to look into it, like 60 Minutes, or maybe the FBI.

I wonder what they'd find?

At any rate, for the umpteenth time, no legitimate polling organization asks YOU to pay to give your opinion.

The wonder of it all is that these snakes have found the ones that will pay, and that Utah has listed them all for the whole world to laugh at.

This is just one month from the disclosures, October 2017

Reagan era tax "reform" killed the golden dividend goose: Monthly yield hasn't been 4% or better since 1985

Byron York reports Washington Free Beacon confesses to funding opposition research with Fusion GPS

Here, about an hour ago:

Lawyers for the conservative publication Washington Free Beacon informed the House Intelligence Committee Friday that the organization was the original funder for the anti-Trump opposition research project with Fusion GPS. The Free Beacon funded the project from the fall of 2015 through the spring of 2016, whereupon it withdrew funding and the project was picked up by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign. ...

The Free Beacon was founded in 2012. Its founders included Michael Goldfarb, who has moved back and forth between conservative journalism, politics, and activism. The Free Beacon was originally part of a 501(c)(4) tax-exempt organization called the Center for American Freedom, but in 2014 became a for-profit organization. It has never revealed its ownership. Conservative billionaire Paul Singer, a major funder of the Free Beacon, strongly opposed Trump at the time of the opposition research project.

As high school grades inflate, SAT scores deflate

Reported here:

Recent findings show that the proportion of high school seniors graduating with an A average — that includes an A-minus or A-plus — has grown sharply over the past generation, even as average SAT scores have fallen.

In 1998, it was 38.9%. By last year, it had grown to 47%.

That’s right: Nearly half of America’s Class of 2016 are A students. Meanwhile, their average SAT score fell from 1,026 to 1,002 on a 1,600-point scale — suggesting that those A's on report cards might be fool's gold.

Gold Star mom thinks it's OK for the Khans to politicize their son's sacrifice and Trump just has to take it

From the story here:

Kristine Schellhaas, the wife of a Marine and author of "15 Years of War," said many people "love Trump for his brash, call-it-as-he-sees-it rhetoric, but this time, Trump’s gone too far in the eyes of the military members and their families."  

"As a mother who lost her son, I know the feeling of being unable to talk about his loss. I too have felt like Mrs. Khan, unable to find the words to describe the chasm in my heart that will never heal. To set her up and ridicule her as a Gold Star mom is cruel," she said.

  

"This isn’t about being Republican or Democrat, it’s about being a human being with a moral compass. Trump has gone too far and he’s lost a lot of military supporters because of it. He owes the Gold Star community and Khan family an apology," she said.   

Ten Senate Republicans got Loretta Lynch confirmed as Attorney General, maybe to SCOTUS too?

Without these ten Republican traitors, Loretta Lynch never would have been confirmed to the post of Attorney General (Roll Call Vote: 56-43 here, April 23, 2015):

Ayotte, New Hampshire !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cochran, Mississippi

Collins, Maine

Flake, Arizona

Graham, South Carolina

Hatch, Utah

Johnson, Wisconsin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kirk, Illinois !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McConnell, Kentucky

Portman, Ohio !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!: vulnerable to defeat in election 2016)

Ted Cruz was too busy to vote, but Marco Rubio did.

From a story about Lynch here:

Lynch would be the first black woman ever nominated to the nation's highest court — and the GOP would have a political problem during an election year if the Republicans refused to even consider her nomination, Goldstein wrote.

"I think the administration would relish the prospect of Republicans either refusing to give Lynch a vote or seeming to treat her unfairly in the confirmation process," Goldstein wrote. "Either eventuality would motivate both black and women voters." 

The girly men at National Review still feel like Trump attacked them

Lowry and Ponnuru, here, who think Megyn Kelly, Carly Fiorina and Rosie O'Donnell make a "whole pattern":

'Trump’s discarded wives and his habit of making gross sexual insults of women also make it easier for liberals to campaign against Republicans’ supposed “war on women.” Perhaps one or two of Trump’s comments were not as disgusting as they have generally been taken to be: Maybe he didn’t mean to suggest that Fox anchor Megyn Kelly asked him tough questions because she was menstruating. But look at the whole pattern — his repeated attacks on her as a “bimbo,” his slam of Carly Fiorina’s face, his description of other women as pigs — and it’s clear that these bits of ugliness are not gaffes so much as a way of life.'

What a couple a pussies. No one who goes off on three men automatically becomes a man-hater. Men do it all the time, and so do women. But "discarded wives" gives it all away. They were no more discarded than any other gold digger is discarded. Women always take the side of the women.

Besides, the Megan Kelly and Carly Fiorina examples are weak. In the one case Trump artlessly hunted for the ages old idiom "seeing red" and came up short (and isn't everything he says equally artless?), and in the other the source for the story is as suspect as suspect can be but people who are purportedly conservative are still prepared to buy it? Predisposed to buy it is more like it. Carly Fiorina's success with this fake story among Republicans tells you all you need to know about the Republican Party, and Carly Fiorina.   

Rosie O'Donnell, on the other hand, has a big fat target on her back for a reason, and deserves everything she gets.

The 10 Idiot Senate Republicans who voted to confirm Loretta Lynch as Attorney General

The 10 Republicans who think being in the majority is a sin:

Ayotte (R-NH) oh yes she votes. just. like. a. woman.

Cochran (R-MS) senile old codger

Collins (R-ME) gender before party

Flake (R-AZ) aptly named

Graham (R-SC) McCain's errand boy

Hatch (R-UT) competing with Harry Reid for Mormon infamy

Johnson (R-WI) used to be the Tea Party's Senator! Go Feingold! Go Feingold! Go Feingold!

Kirk (R-IL) soon to be replaced by another disabled person of the same political party

McConnell (R-KY) recently had unsuccessful testicle transplant surgery

Portman (R-OH) has never had any testicles according to anonymous sources 

The roll call vote is here.  

Germany repatriated 120 metric tons of gold to the Fatherland in 2014

From the story here:

"The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold," the central bank said in a statement. "In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. Germany's gold reserves are the second-biggest in the world after those of the United States and totalled 3,384.2 tonnes this month, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. ... Under the Bundesbank's new gold storage plan in 2013, it decided to bring back 674 tonnes from abroad by 2020 and store half of its gold in its own vaults. ... Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bundesbank said it has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt -- 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York.

----------------------------------------------------------------

If I'm doing the math right, that means that in 2013 New York coughed up just 5 metric tons of Germany's gold to Germany, and Paris 32 metric tons.

If the plan is to repatriate 674 metric tons by 2020, the 157 repatriated so far means there are just 517 to go, or about 86.1 metric tons per year through 2020, to put half of Germany's gold back in Germany.

The story line not included above includes the narrative that it was unsafe to let Germany store its own gold in its homeland during the Cold War. But there were already 1,018.1 metric tons stored in Germany all those years, not quite a third of its holdings. Seems like a pretty big target to me.

An interesting assessment of the risks, wouldn't you say? Or was something else at work here? Versailles, and all that.

Gold and the dollar remain uncorrelated: Gold is not money and continues to rise with the dollar

.DXY is trading at about 92.50 today with gold at about 1235 yesterday, surging to 1262 at this hour.

On 1 November 2005 .DXY was 91.57 with gold at 460.

John Tamny of Forbes spends four pages trying to convince us falling oil prices are always due to a rising dollar

Here, in Forbes:

"Falling crude prices ... were a function of a rising dollar that revealed itself in a major decline in the price of gold that is and was priced in dollars."

I don't know. Maybe he's trying to convince himself, not us. Reminds me of listening to a religious fanatic who can't stop talking. You know the kind. They usually get older and eventually think the better of it and move on. But not John Tamny.

The idea that a falling dollar produces higher oil prices is a nice theory occasionally supported by the data. The trouble is, there are too many examples of the correlation breaking down.

Crude oil prices from the mid-1980s to 2004 were remarkably range-bound between $12 and $35 a barrel despite the huge drop in the dollar from 1985 and its subsequent rise through the early 2000s. The dollar's rise in the late 1990s did nothing to change this. In fact, oil rose in tandem with the dollar then, as it did marginally after 1995 and as it did at the end of the late recession.

The sheer scale of the moves in oil prices is not commensurate with the relatively small moves in the dollar since 2005, nor is the relative tranquility of oil prices before that explained by the out-sized moves in the dollar.

The case is similar with gold, which at the current price of the dollar is still much, much higher than a dollar at this level in the past would indicate is called for. Gold was quiescent for 20 years and a lot lower than now all the while the dollar moved dramatically down and up again and down, off the 85 level. Contrary to Tamny, the recent decline in the price of gold has hardly been major, and hardly enough to convince that it is hewing to the performance of the dollar.

To illustrate how little gold has cared for the dollar's level, just look at how long it took for gold to peak after the 2008 all-time low in the dollar: over three years. And there is also that roughly 13 point rise in the dollar during the late recession when gold also began its long and biggest leg up.

That's not supposed to happen.

Sorry!

Happy talk from Robert Lenzner of Forbes misses the 180 month bear market in performance

Robert Lenzner of Forbes, here, is only off by an order of magnitude (18 months vs. 180):

Bull markets last on average about 97 months each and gain an average of 440 points in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. By comparison bear markets since the 1930s have an average duration of only 18 months and an average loss in value of about 40 percent.

Let's talk the most recent bear market in performance.

If you invested your nest egg in the stock markets fifteen years ago in a total stock market index fund, your average return annually, say in VTSMX, would be 4.75% through 2014, per Morningstar.

On the other hand, if you had taken the safe route and invested everything in an intermediate term bond index fund, say in VBIIX, your average annual return would be 6.52% through 2014, also per Morningstar.

DESPITE THE PHENOMENAL PERFORMANCE OF STOCK MARKETS SINCE 2011, WHEN THE S&P500 REVISITED THE 2008 CLIFF LEVEL BEFORE THE BOTTOM IN 2009, STOCKS ARE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET. NO ONE REALISES HOW BAD THEIR CONDITION STILL IS.

Only fools are investing in the stock market today. Returns from stocks 10 years from now will be similarly disappointing as they have been since 1999. If you have physical gold, keep it, imho. And if you can, raise cash, imho. Opportunities for riches to agile investors who are prepared to scoop up bargains as in the 1930s are in the offing.

As everyone should know by now but doesn't, 1999 was a blow off top period leading up to the previous inflation-adjusted stock market peak of August 2000.

Valuations today have still not reproduced themselves in comparison to the end of 1999 on a total market cap to GDP basis, but they are way above the 2007 levels and represent an historically exceptionally rarefied level of valuation. Valuation at the end of 2014 based on total stock market cap to GDP will be relatively certain with the second report of 4Q2014 GDP at the end of February.

Stay tuned.

The gold miners are digging holes in the basement

Gold falls below $1,200 to end the week 3% undervalued relative to oil

1171.60 / 80.54 = 14.54