Saturday, January 31, 2015

Kevin Drum admits ObamaCare is a cost to the middle class, not a benefit

Here in Mother Jones last November:

[N]early all [ObamaCare's] benefits flow to the poor. ... winners are those with household incomes below $25,000 or so, and losers are those with incomes above $25,000. ... If you think of Obamacare as something that benefits the working and middle classes, you're probably wrong. It may benefit a few of them, but overall it's a cost to them ... the bottom line is simple: like most of the social welfare programs championed by Democrats, Obamacare is primarily aimed at the poor. Once again, the working and middle classes are left on the outside looking in.







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First Obama did nothing about housing, the sine qua non of the middle class: Over five million completed foreclosures eliminated millions from the middle class without firing a shot.

Then he did nothing about jobs, without which no one buys a house: 18 million have been added to the potential workforce but haven't actually joined it.

Then he rammed through healthcare reform, which was designed to raise costs on the middle class.

And people wonder how Obama could even think of taxing their 529 plans?

The middle class is the enemy of the revolution, the object of the transformation, the source for the redistribution.

Friday, January 30, 2015

So, Libya was really Hillary's war, and more broadly the women's war, not Obama's

From the first part of an investigative report, here, which details that there were secret recordings between Gaddafi's son and none other than Rep. Dennis Kucinich, now out of office:

Mr. Kucinich, who challenged Mrs. Clinton and Barack Obama for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, acknowledged that he undertook his own conversations with the Gadhafi regime. He said he feared Mrs. Clinton was using emotion to sell a war against Libya that wasn’t warranted, and he wanted to get all the information he could to share with his congressional colleagues. ...

Numerous U.S. officials interviewed by The Times confirmed that Mrs. Clinton, and not Mr. Obama, led the charge to use NATO military force to unseat Gadhafi as Libya’s leader and that she repeatedly dismissed the warnings offered by career military and intelligence officials. 

In the recovered recordings, a U.S. intelligence liaison working for the Pentagon told a Gadhafi aide that Mr. Obama privately informed members of Congress that Libya “is all Secretary Clinton’s matter” and that the nation’s highest-ranking generals were concerned that the president was being misinformed. ...

Instead of relying on the Defense Department or the intelligence community for analysis, officials told The Times, the White House trusted Mrs. Clinton’s charge, which was then supported by Ambassador to the United Nations Susan E. Rice and National Security Council member Samantha Power, as reason enough for war.

Dang, Romney says he won't run

Now who will stop Jeb?

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Secretary of State John Kerry who served in Vietnam fined $50 for not shoveling snow at his Boston residence

Story here:

Boston city officials issued a ticket to Kerry’s home for neglecting to shovel his sidewalk on Thursday, according to Citizens Connect, a website run by the city of Boston where residents can upload complaints.

John Kerry, who served in Vietnam, has also been rumored in the past to avoid stopping at four way stop signs in his Jeep, and to avoid paying taxes on his yacht domicile.

One law for me, another for thee. 

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Hm: Obama makes it to Arabia within 4 days of the king's death, but couldn't pull off DC to Paris for Charlie Hebdo

King Abdullah died on the 23rd, on which he was immediately buried, and Obama scurried from India to Saudi Arabia by yesterday, the 27th, to pay his respects.

The Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris was on a Wednesday, the 7th, and the infamous parade of idiots which Obama did not attend and to which he did not send a representative occurred on Sunday the 11th.

The flight time for the former is less than 5 hours, and for the latter about 7.5 hours.

Funny how security can be so hastily arranged, from so far away, when the trip really matters.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Obama is still a rookie after 6 years in office: drops proposed tax on 529 plans after massive blowback

CNBC reported the story here.

Evidently the White House realized the idea was a non-starter when someone explained that the 529 plans would stop being funded, meaning there would be insufficient revenue to fund alternatives, as reported here:

'On "Power Lunch," [Joe] Hurley [of savingforcollege.com] said this tax will deter people from using 529 plans. "Taxing 529 plans won't pay for any other initiative because people will no longer be using 529 plans," he said. "You can't raise revenue when you don't have any contributions going into these plans."'

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Well DUH!

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Analyst says oil price plummet primarily driven by OPEC abandoning swing producer role

Dirk Leach, who also credits the rising dollar but not to the extent others have, here:

"Now that OPEC has abdicated their role as swing producer, the only mechanism to stabilize oil prices is the market itself based on supply and demand. As we are now seeing, the supply side of that balance has a lot of inertia. Despite some analysts' view that shale production can be turned on and off rather quickly, the time it takes to decrease production is measured in months or quarters while the crude oil price response is essentially immediate. Going forward, we appear to have a crude oil market pricing system with a very fast response time and a very slow feedback mechanism (supply adjustments). Generally, this type of system is not very stable and results in frequent large swings in market pricing. Going forward, it might be a more bumpy oil market than we have been used to."

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Obama wants to tax 529 plans, 53% of which are owned by those making less than $100k

So reports The Wall Street Journal here about Obama's latest attack on the middle class:

"The average account balance [of 529 plans this June] was $20,671. ... The Investment Company Institute, trade group for the mutual-fund industry, says that in 2013 households saving for college through 529 plans, Coverdell ESAs, or mutual funds held outside these accounts tended to be headed by people younger than 45. And 49% of these heads of household had fewer than four years of college. A majority of these households, 53%, earned less than $100,000."

The dollar has surged 2.26% since Wednesday to trade at 95 this morning

The dollar hasn't traded at 95 since late 2003.

Much more of this dollar strength is due to the continued improving fiscal condition of the United States since 2012 than people realize. 

Tax revenues are way up under the made-permanent Bush tax cuts and the made-permanent Alternative Minimum Tax fix, both of which heralded in 2013. Federal receipts are up a whopping combined 36% in 2013 and 2014 over 2012.

And continued Republican control of the purse in Congress has meant almost zero expansion of federal spending. Federal outlays are up a paltry combined less than 1% in 2013 and 2014 over 2012.

The federal government is up a net $845.5 billion in the last two years. That's huge.

The dollar is not simply a fiction which competes with other fictions in the global marketplace, but a symbol of the determination of the American people to play by the rules and pay their bills. It is not a coincidence that this determination lately expressed politically paved the way for falling commodity prices generally, and oil in particular. It is uncertainty which breeds fear-trades.

Speaker John Boehner doesn't get the credit he deserves for achieving under the Democrat President Barack Obama what Republicans before him could only dream about.

And if you want to know what's wrong with Republicans, that's it.

Strange fact of the day: Both General Lee and MLK Jr. were born in January

Born January 19th
Born January 15th

Friday, January 23, 2015

Likely primary voters prefer Mitt Romney to Rubio and Bush in latest Zogby poll


Bank Failure Friday: The Second of 2015

Highland Community Bank, Chicago, Illinois, failed tonight, costing the FDIC $5.8 million.

This is bank failure number two in 2015.

S&P 500 market capitalization/GDP ratios the years before plus-20% crashes

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/CAPE-at-Market-Peaks.php
1955: 104*
1956: 101
1957:   84

1960: 107
1961: 123
1962: 103

1965: 120
1966:   96

1967: 109
1968: 107
1969:   88
1970:   84

1972:   89
1973:   66
1974:   43

1979:   40
1980:   45
1981:   37
1982:   41


1986:   52
1987:   49

1999: 148
2000: 126
2001: 107
2002:   79

2006: 101
2007: 100
2008:   62
2009:   77

*The ratio is the S&P 500 level at the end of the calendar year divided by 4Q final GDP in trillions of dollars. The average peak ratio in the series is 99. The average trough ratio is 71. The average spread between peak and trough ratios in the series is 27%. The ratio through 3Q2014 is 112, 13% above the average peak in the series.

The chart from Doug Short gives the Shiller p/e ratios on the record dates. The average peak of these is 22.6, the average trough is 14.2, and the average spread between them in the series is 35%. The Shiller p/e ratio at the end of 3Q2014 was 25.16, 11% above the average peak in the series. 


Oh the horror: Did you know the personal savings rate INCLUDES IRA and 401(k) contributions?

The annual average of the rate is shown.
Then how come the personal saving rate has been in steady decline since 1974 when IRAs were first passed into law? And how come saving didn't improve after 1978 when 401(k) plans were first created? Or after 1997 when Roth IRAs were legislated? The current monthly reading of personal saving is a measly 4.4%.

A rich country saves, a poor one spends.

"Notice that NIPA’s [National Income and Product Accounts] treatment of IRAs and 401(k) plan contributions, for example, is perfectly consistent: Because these defined contributions are not part of personal outlays (and, therefore, must be included in the difference between personal income and personal outlays), they are correctly included in national saving computations."

-- Massimo Guidolin and Elizabeth A. La Jeunesse, "The Decline in the U.S. Personal Saving Rate: Is It Real and Is It a Puzzle?" in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REVIEW, November/December 2007, p. 499, footnote 13 (here)

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Hey Obama! Tell me how we get to yes . . .

. . . for life!

Jobless claims so far in 2015 are running 6.25% below the same period in 2014

First time claims for unemployment have averaged 450,000 per week in the first three weeks of January 2015 compared to 480,000 per week in the first three weeks of 2014, not seasonally adjusted.

The claims spike last week was equalized by a spike to the downside this week.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Expect the opposite: Obama says "The shadow of crisis has passed"

If you like your insurance you can keep your insurance.

Iraq is secure.

If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.

Al-Qaeda is on the run.

Everyone will save $2500 under my health reform plan.

I'm as angry as you are about the IRS scandal.

We've fixed healthcare.gov.

Looming global financial catastrophe: Anglo-Saxon pioneers of QE have yet to pay its price

William White, former chief economist to the Bank for International Settlements, quoted here:

Those who argue that the US and the UK are growing faster than Europe because they carried out QE early are confusing "correlation with causality". The Anglo-Saxon pioneers have yet to pay the price. "It ain't over until the fat lady sings. There are serious side-effects building up and we don't know what will happen when they try to reverse what they have done."

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Obama's $500 tax relief is so George W. Bush 2.0

Obama is to announce tonight not even inflation-adjusted George W. Bush-type tax relief to middle class families, as reported here, but just another gimmick:

"Among the highlights of President Obama’s State of the Union address plans to pull the American family out of economic plight is a $500 tax credit for two-earner families."

George W. Bush bookended his administration with similar gimmicks.

OK, the first one wasn't exactly a gimmick. The first was part of the then-temporary tax reduction passed by the Congress. You know the one. The check in the mail was a result of the implementation of the tax rate schedule which existed for the rest of Bush's presidency but was set to expire by the time of Obama. Obama finally agreed to make that schedule permanent, something George W. Bush wasn't able to make happen but Speaker John Boehner was. (Why is that? And how come no one except maybe two people on the planet recognize and applaud that? I am one of them. A Forbes columnist, Ralph Benko, is the other. But I digress.)

Flashback to the San Francisco Chronicle in June 2001, here, just six months after Bush assumed office after the narrowest presidential election victory in living memory:

Bush signed the $1.35 trillion tax cut -- which includes soon-to-be-mailed rebate checks of up to $600 -- amid the kind of presidential pomp he usually disdains: a formal ceremony in the East Room, with a Marine band playing "Hail to the Chief." ... In Congress yesterday, a few Republicans talked about making the current bill permanent. One of its odd features is that it expires on Dec. 31, 2010, a sunset provision put in because of congressional rules governing spending more than a decade into the future.

Bush's second and real gimmick came at the end of his presidency in 2008, just before all hell broke loose in the economy with massive bank failures, massive bankruptcies, massive foreclosures, massive job losses, and massive stock market declines. It was a minor echo of Herbert Hoover trying to stop the Great Depression, double, triple, and quadruple-downed on by his successor FDR but to no avail.

Market Watch had the story here in February 2008, detailing the very liberal character of the Republican stimulus plan, which at the time met with no criticism from candidate Obama (why? because it was Obama's brand of liberalism also):

President Bush signed a $168 billion economic stimulus package on Wednesday that will extend rebates to U.S. taxpayers, give tax breaks to businesses and make more-expensive mortgages available through the government and government-sponsored mortgage-finance companies. ... Bush said the U.S. economy has clearly slowed but that the package is "a booster shot for our economy." Approved by lawmakers last week, the package provides a tax rebate of up to $1,200 per working couple, plus $300 per child. ... Taxpayers will not have to apply for the rebate; it would come automatically based on their 2007 tax return. ... Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama wove the stimulus package into a speech in Janesville, Wisc., on Wednesday, touting a plan he offered a few weeks ago. He proposed sending each working family a $500 tax cut and each senior a $250 supplement to their Social Security check. "Neither George Bush nor Hillary Clinton had that kind of immediate, broad-based relief in their original stimulus proposals, but I'm glad that the stimulus package that was recently passed by Congress does," Obama said.

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These crumbs from the Master's table aren't going to help Americans do anything except survive as dependents, maybe for a week. What Americans need is jobs, decent jobs, and the decent wages which go with them, and liberals know nothing about how to provide them with those.

Paris to sue Fox News for insults: "Free speech for me but not for thee"

Charlie Hebdo gets to insult every religion and every follower of same, but don't you dare insult Paris!

Story here.