The dollar is trading above 90 today

The dollar is trading above 90 today, for the first time since early 2006.

Third and final revision of 3Q2014 GDP surges to 5.0% on personal consumption and investment revisions

Personal consumption added 2.21 points to today's revision of 3Q2014 GDP at 5.0% while government consumption added 0.80 points. TOGETHER they represent 60% of the total, which again gives the lie to the meme that 70% of the economy is still consumer spending.

Not any more. Frugality is still operative in this economy when only 44% of it is from the consumer side. Keep in mind that that's a one month IMPROVEMENT in the BEA's assessment of the contribution of personal consumption by 46%.

Hm. The difference a month can make.

In the second report a month ago personal consumption had added just 1.51 points, and government consumption 0.76. Personal consumption had been averaging just 1.48 points in contribution in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Government consumption had been averaging -0.45, actually adding a SUBTRACTION to GDP over the same period. The positive contribution from government spending now, however, is nearly 83% defense spending . . . the war on ISIS.

More war, more GDP.

Gross private domestic investment added 1.18 points in today's revision, but only 0.85 in the second. The three year average had been 0.94. The 39% improvement in the estimation for this category is a very healthy and welcome sign for the economy.

Net exports added 0.78 in today's report, unchanged from the second, but way up from the prior period average contribution of just 0.08 points.

Refined petroleum exports, up 3.7% on average in 2014 year to date over the 2013 average. It's a good thing.

Republican enthusiasm for the Line Item Veto began under Reagan and was their version of the imperial presidency

No different than Reagan's enthusiasm for federal mandates like EMTALA, which is the proximate cause of ObamaCare. But J. T. Young doesn't remember it that way, or that far back, here:

'Unmentioned in Obama's legacy is that he killed the line-item veto. While not having done so directly, Obama's presidency has ended this long-time Republican goal just as assuredly as if he had. The political and fiscal role reversals between the Congress and presidency - and between Republicans and Democrats - transpiring for twenty years, have culminated with this administration.

'Twenty years ago, Republicans, armed the Contract with America, dramatically rode to Congressional majorities for the first time in decades. Prominent within that important document was a call for a line-item veto for the president.

'The intent was to give a president power to eliminate wasteful federal spending with pinpoint accuracy. Instead of having to veto an entire bill, and risk shutting down all, or part of the government, a president would be able to stop particular provisions but leave a larger spending bill intact. This authority would reverse the "Hobson's Choice" that prevailed between Congress and a president.'

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'Ronald Reagan said to Congress in his 1986 State of the Union address, "Tonight I ask you to give me what forty-three governors have: Give me a line-item veto this year. Give me the authority to veto waste, and I'll take the responsibility, I'll make the cuts, I'll take the heat."'

WHATEVER CONSERVATISM IS, IT MOST CERTAINLY IS NOT ABOUT SEEKING TO ACQUIRE MORE POWER BUT RATHER ABOUT SEEKING TO DIFFUSE AND DISTRIBUTE IT, SOMETHING THE CONGRESS DELIBERATELY BETRAYED IN THE 1920s WHEN IT DECIDED TO STOP THE NATURAL EXPANSION OF REPRESENTATION. NO BRANCH OF THE GOVERNMENT MAY BE SAID SINCE THAT TIME TO BE IN ANY WAY CONSERVATIVE IN SPIRIT, EXCEPT IN THE OCCASIONAL IRRITABLE MENTAL GESTURE IN THAT DIRECTION WHICH IS USED AS A CLOAK FOR MORE SELF-AGGRANDIZEMENT. NO ONE ANYWHERE RETAINS "SELF-RESTRAINT" IN THEIR LEXICON.

What waiting over seven years for that full-time job looks like

"Been waiting here that long, eh?"

Terrorism is a feature of Islam, not a bug

"Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the enemies, of Allah and your enemies, and others besides, whom ye may not know, but whom Allah doth know. Whatever ye shall spend in the cause of Allah, shall be repaid unto you, and ye shall not be treated unjustly."

-- Surah 8:60, source of the motto "Be Prepared" of the Muslim Brotherhood, except these Boy Scouts intend to terrify, not to be helpful, friendly, courteous or kind

Obama says you're better off than when he took office, except you are not

click to enlarge

Obama says, quoted here:

"Like the rest of America, black America in the aggregate is better off now than it was when I came into office."

On the contrary:

Full-time jobs have not recovered to their 2007 peak and won't until summer 2015, if we are lucky. That will be eight years later, when full-time jobs in the past have always bounced back after at most three years in post-war recessions. Obama has done nothing for jobs, except to let the problem fester and try to heal itself.

Health insurance costs much more, covers much less and has narrower and less convenient networks. The proof of this is in the polling, where the majority of Americans remain opposed to ObamaCare. The minority which likes ObamaCare is benefiting from it at the expense of those who don't, who are more numerous. It's called income redistribution. Otherwise known as socialism. You know, like in Cuba, Obama's new best friend.

Owners' equity in household real estate stands at 53.94%, still almost 10% below where it was in 2005. Completed foreclosures in the last month are still running 95% above normal.

More than half of the 66% of Americans who have saved anything for retirement have individually saved less than $25,000. American taxpayers are forced to contribute on average 13.5% to the pensions of the country's government employees and save for themselves only at the rate of 5%.

But perhaps the most damning indictment of Obama is how Americans of all stripes have been impoverished under his watch. Real median household income in the US is lower now than when the recession ended in Obama's first term in 2009, and much lower than when he took office:

"At this point, real household incomes are in worse shape than they were four years ago when the recession ended."

Lies told often enough can become the truth, but they are still lies.

Amounts allocated for retirement soar to $24.2 trillion in 3Q2014

The Investment Company Institute reports, here.

IRA-type instruments continue to lead the way with 30% of the total amount saved, followed by 401k-type plans holding 27%, and government defined benefit plans at all levels 21%.

The latter figure, representing $5.1 trillion, remains remarkable in view of the fact that the taxpayers have contributed significantly to this sum through taxation, on top of funding their own retirements, or not funding them as the case may be.

As recently as 2011 the national average rate of taxpayer contributions to state employee pension plans, and teacher, police and fire retirement plans combined was 13.5%, according to data reported here by The Buckeye Institute. Contrast that with average annual personal savings rates under Bush of just 4% and under Obama of 6%. And for the most recent 5 months of 2014 the rate has fallen to 5%.

Taxpayers are funding the retirements of government workers at a rate more than double their own, which is one reason why most people haven't saved enough for their own retirements. CBS News reported again just weeks ago here that of the 66% who have saved anything for retirement, the majority have saved $25,000 or less.

Meanwhile, government pension plans, as rich as they may appear from the data, may be underfunded long term by as much as $4 trillion, according to The Boston Globe, here.

With a week left before Christmas, maybe you should make do with what you've spent so far, and put something away for a rainy day. It's a comin'.

Michigan legislators correctly send sales tax increase for roads to the voters

Mlive.com reports the story here.

As I've argued before, here, an increase in the sales tax for road repairs is far less regressive than the gasoline excises as they currently stand, so I support this if I only had various tax increases to choose from. Governor Snyder's plan to raise excise taxes even higher to pay for roads was a non-starter for this reason. Commuters to minimum wage jobs shouldn't have to bear the brunt of a consumption tax on fuel which is at least twice what it is on a roll of toilet paper.

Paying prevailing wages for road repairs under Davis-Bacon laws to union shops, however, guarantees that we pay the highest prices for roads. We shouldn't have to put up with that. Competitive bidding by non-union shops is called for.  

It is also regrettable that the excise tax isn't being eliminated altogether, because, as I've said, it's about twice as onerous as the current sales tax of 6%. That it is actually being expanded somewhat under the bill is moving in the wrong direction. Maybe we can work on eliminating that in future.

Opponents of the sales tax increase should consider whether now is the time to pick a fight with the unions to get better roads at a lower price, and should also lay out what could be cut from the current budget to otherwise accomplish the goal. But the roads have been allowed to get so bad for so long it is difficult to accept the idea that we can afford to wait any longer.

The current compromise may be the best deal for everyone involved.

Michigan legislators cut the baby in half in lameduck twilight, requiring internet sales tax collection from businesses with any form of physical presence

Reported here:

SB 658 and SB 659 extend the state's sales and use taxes to out-of-state companies with a physical "nexus" or presence in the state. That would apply these taxes to companies like Amazon, which has a presence in the state but not a retail front.

A ruling worthy of a rabbi.

The latest snapshot of the asset allocation of the United States is "risk on"

Total bond market per SIFMA through 3Q2014: $38.65 trillion (49.8%)

Total stock market capitalization per ^W5000 right now: $26.07 trillion (33.6%)

Cash per MZM money stock: $12.89 trillion (16.6%)

Total: $77.61 trillion

If you add in Households, Owners' equity in real estate, you add another $10.98 trillion for a total pie of $88.59 trillion, thus 43.6% to bonds, 29.4% to stocks, 14.6% to cash, and 12.4% to real estate.

From the perspective of the Talmud this allocation is very unwise because it is much too light on cash and owners' equity. The amounts allocated to business, to cash and to your homestead should each be about 33%, indicating that we are very heavily "risk on" indeed.

Food for thought.

Vanguard bond index funds, 15 year performance per annum vs. stocks

HMS Vanguard

Per morningstar.com, annual performance 15 years to date for all popular bond index funds beats stocks hands down, except for the short index:

VBISX: 4.05% (short)

VBMFX: 5.42% (total)

VBIIX: 6.48% (intermediate)

VBLTX: 8.30% (long).

Average annual total nominal return from the S&P500, dividends fully reinvested, has been only 4.52% per annum.

That's what happens when stocks are inflated in value over a long period of time, as they have been almost continuously since the late 1990s, except for about four years between 2008 and 2012. And remember, present gains off those lower valuations are already part of the relatively poorer performance of stocks over the last 15 years. It could be much worse.

Attention dollar-cost-averagers: Through November bonds still beat stocks for the last 15 years

morningstar.com

politicalcalculations.com

Your average annual nominal return from the S&P500 for 15 years through November is just 4.52%, with dividends fully reinvested. From intermediate term bonds in an index fund like VBIIX your average nominal return for 15 years through 12/18/14 is 6.46%, and better sleep.

America pushes NATO right up to the Russian border, the EU confiscates Cyprus' assets, and the Economist calls Putin paranoid

Proving once again that the West completely disrespects Russia. They could easily be our friends, if America were still a Christian country. That, dear friends, is the root of the problem.

The story "As ye sow, so shall ye reap: The collapse in the rouble is caused by Vladimir Putin’s belligerence, greed and paranoia" is here, in the ever arrogant Economist.

Bank Failure Friday: the 18th of 2014 is in Mankato, MN

Northern Star Bank, Mankato, Minnesota, failed today, costing the FDIC $5.9 million.

As of September 30, 2014, there are 6,589 institutions remaining in the FDIC system.

That means that since the summer another 67 formerly independent participating institutions in the FDIC have left the system, most of which have been absorbed by larger institutions through acquisition and mergers because they were no longer able to survive and compete as stand-alone profitable banks in the new rigorous regulatory environment imposed under the Dodd-Frank legislation and Basel capital rules.

Over 300 formerly FDIC-participating institutions have suffered this same fate since the beginning of this year.

And in February 2007 there were 8,743 FDIC member institutions, 2,154 more than there are now. Only 500+ of these failed. The rest have been gobbled up by big-banking.

Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner and more popular than Jeb Bush, beating him 19 to 12 on average

Byron York reported here yesterday:

A Fox News survey released this week found Romney the GOP leader, with 19 percent, ahead of Jeb Bush, who was pretty far back at 10 percent. Everybody else was bunched together behind Bush.

A McClatchy-Marist poll a few days earlier showed a similar result, with Romney leading at 19 percent and Bush at 14 percent. A Quinnipiac poll before that found Romney at 19 percent and Bush at 11 percent.

Many polls don't include Romney in their surveys. But the many that do suggest that, at least for now, Romney is a front-runner, if not the front-runner in the 2016 Republican race.

Average food stamp participation under Obama is 43.2 million annually to date, 84% higher than under Bush

Under Bush it was 23.5 million on average, and under Clinton 23.1 million.

Liberal WaPo defends economist who says middle class is just fine because of . . . transfer payments!

Where have I heard this before?

Consider The Washington Post, here:

"CBO saw a dramatic difference in middle class income gains because it captures information that tax records miss, such as income from transfer programs such as Social Security and Medicare, [economist Stephen J.] Rose said."

A libertarian made this same argument to me very recently: that the middle class is intact if you count transfer payments made under the tax code.

For a libertarian to argue with a straight face that the middle class is intact because of income redistribution is an offense to capitalism. To be middle class from the purely economic point of view is to have achieved a level of economic independence and status not shared by the lower class. It is symbolized by home ownership, and by that new car smell every few years. Dependence on government transfer payments to maintain such status does nothing but obscure the truth of what is really going on.

This is consistent with the wider practice of economic liberalism in our time, which is similarly designed to hide the truth while posing as its custodian at the same time.

Mark-to-market accounting rules have been changed since April 2009 under Financial Accounting Standards Board rule 157, making price discovery of many "assets" nearly impossible. Circumstances became catastrophic under the old rule during 2008, so the solution was to change the rule. Call it moving the goal posts.

The Fed, acting as the Board's tag team wrestling partner, through QE has been buying up the crappy assets of the banks and transferring them to its own balance sheet in order to hide the truth of their crappiness and restore the banks to health. At the same time the Fed makes war against the free market with its repression of interest rates to the zero bound, driving up the value of risk assets, especially housing, stocks, bonds and commodities while punishing savers and aspirants to the middle class. It's not a coincidence that this helps only the elites, who cannot continue to spend money they don't have unless they can borrow it on the cheap.

A truly conservative economic universe, that is, one aligned with reality, would not permit any of this. 

Too bad we don't live there anymore. Libertarians shouldn't pretend that we do.

Brian Wesbury is wrong: First rate hike will not be in six months

Brian Wesbury & Co. here says the first Fed rate hike is coming in six months (June) because "considerable time" has secretly meant six months to Janet Yellen all along. Dropping that phrase for the word "patient" signals that the six month timer has begun ticking.

OK, maybe so.

But if the employment numbers cool as I expect them to after the first of the year when all the part-timers hired recently are let go, the Fed will still be in the rhetorical catbird seat to delay a June rate hike indefinitely because of the language change, without looking like it has back-tracked on its plan.

Janet Yellen may have an "obsession with the labor market" but she is not stupid.

If Democrats and Republicans had been so obsessed, she wouldn't have to be. At least workers' lives matter to Janet Yellen, which is more than can be said for the usual practitioners of the dismal science.

The good olde days . . . when Cuba was still the enemy

PT boat on the way to Havana

I used to make a livin' man

pickin' the banana

Now I'm a guide for the CIA

hooray . . . for the U.S.A.

Baby, baby, make me loco

Baby, baby, make me mambo

Sent to spy on a Cuban talent show

First stop . . . Havana a go go

I used to make a living man

pickin' the banana

hooray . . . for Havana

Baby, baby, make me loco

Baby, baby, make me mambo

Useless Steve Gruber Show shields Rep. Tim Walberg from heat for Cromnibus vote

Steve Gruber had his opportunity this morning to let Congressman Tim Walberg feel the heat for his vote last week which helped move Cromnibus through the Congress, and instead shielded him by talking about anything but that.

1320 WILS' Michael Cohen had a much better interview of the Congressman here on Monday addressing the issue in depth, but alas it was not a talk show which takes callers' questions and comments.

They call it freedom of the press in America, but its organs make sure that they continue to protect the liberal status quo for obscene government spending and its representatives, because they PROFIT from it.