Monday, December 15, 2014

At $2.53/gallon, the national average price of gasoline now officially represents a "sale"















The very long-term average price of a gallon of gasoline in June 2013 dollars going back to 1918, as reported here, is $2.60.

Using all items CPI since then to date, up 1.682%, $2.60 a gallon would come to about $2.64 today.

So this morning's national average of $2.532/gallon, if not officially CHEAP, is at least ON SALE at a discount of about 4%.

Sustained for a year, and hopefully longer, that would definitely mean something helpful to the American consumer's bottom line. Republican control of both chambers of Congress means it is more likely to continue than not, but you never know about these things. After all, both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney were for the ridiculously expensive ethanol fuel program and subsidizing it with your tax dollars, which has only driven up the price of animal feed, fuel itself, and food.

Stay tuned.

Libertarian free-trade presidents named BUSH get the most blame for lost manufacturing jobs

Since Jimmy Carter took office in January 1977, during whose term manufacturing jobs reached their zenith of 19.5 million, 5.6 million net manufacturing jobs have disappeared, and with them the middle class lives to which they gave birth and from which other good-paying, middle class service jobs had been spawned.

Manufacturing jobs had risen steadily from their post-war low in February 1946 at 11.9 million to their 1979 height, just before Ronald Reagan brought us the Libertarian Revolution in the guise of conservative Republicanism. He gave us both Alan Greenspan in 1987, Fed Chairman and disciple of Ayn Rand, who steered the country right up to the rocks before jumping ship in 2006, and a quixotic message of freedom and free-trade which has made the investor class rich while middle class families have seen their lives wrecked under Reagan's libertarian successors who presided over the export of their good jobs to foreign countries. 

The two Bush presidents in particular, George Herbert Walker and his son George W., get the blame for most manufacturing jobs lost since the 1970s peaks. And George W. far and away gets more blame than anyone else, exporting fully 80% of the net jobs lost:

Carter +0.8 million
Reagan -0.6 million
Bush I -1.3 million
Clinton +0.3 million
Bush II -4.5 million
Obama -0.3 million.

The last thing this country needs in 2016 is a BUSH named Jeb, or a PAUL named Rand.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Despite big declines, completed foreclosures in October 2014 are still running 95% above normal

So says Corelogic here.

Completed foreclosures in October 2014 came to 41,000 nationally, 20,000 higher than the 2000-2006 average of 21,000 per month. Still, the level represents a big drop over the past year and is part of a consistent decline in houses reaching completed foreclosure going back 36 months.

4.2% of all mortgages were in serious delinquency in October.

FL, MI, TX, CA and GA alone accounted for 256,000 of 561,000 completed foreclosures in all states in the last twelve months, almost 46% of the total.

Michigan is still tops among non-judicial states in October for completed foreclosures in the last twelve months: 45,000.

Florida is tops in judicial states in the last 12 months: 118,000 completed foreclosures.

The half million plus completed foreclosures in the last twelve months represents the lowest level since October 2007 according to Corelogic. The relatively few additions since the September report mean that completed foreclosures since 2008 continue to hover around the 5.2 million level.

All figures are rounded.

Ted Cruz blows it again, big time: stalled appointments to make it through lame duck

From the Washington Post story here:

"As Democrats and a bloc of conservative Republicans jousted on parliamentary disputes on an unrelated matter, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) took advantage of the dispute to set up a string of votes on nominees that might have otherwise not made it to confirmation before the session adjourned. Once this session ends, the Republicans take charge next month and have vowed to block any nominee a vast majority of them oppose."

Suddenly it's important news to ABC that Republican superfunder Koch Brother isn't a conservative

Here from George Stephanopoulos:

“I’m basically a libertarian, and I’m a conservative on economic matters, and I’m a social liberal,” [David] Koch told ABC News’ Barbara Walters during an interview for her special “The 10 Most Fascinating People of 2014″ that airs at 9 p.m. ET Sunday on ABC.

Koch, who supports abortion rights and gay marriage, said he isn’t concerned with candidates he supports who don’t share some of his views. He said his primary concern when choosing a candidate to support is their fiscal policies.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Koch's political affiliation before 1984 was Libertarian Party, according to his Wikipedia entry, which means he's a hard-boiled libertarian. The man is 2014's ninth wealthiest in the world.

In this sudden attention to Koch's liberalism I smell a new political effort afoot by the liberal media to highlight the differences between libertarianism and conservatism to split the right in the interests of Democrat liberalism in 2016.

Remember, it was also George Stephanopoulos who brought us the war on women in 2012. George is getting ready early this time.

It's a sign of self-perceived weakness in the Democrat camp that they are already thinking they must begin to divide the right to win in 2016.

Speaking of Grubers, this, from the things you thought were true but are not department

Adolf Hitler was not a Schicklgruber, and proven not to be already in the early 1950s, as recounted here in 1990 in the New York Times:

'Almost 40 years ago, however, in ''Hitler, A Study in Tyranny,'' which remains a standard biography of Hitler, Alan Bullock exploded this myth. Bullock noted that Hitler's father, Alois, had been born out of wedlock to Maria Anna Schicklgruber.

'Eventually, the acknowledged father, Johann Georg Heidler, married Maria, but he never bothered to legitimize his son.

'In 1876, however, the brother of Johann Georg Heidler, then dead, took the necessary steps to legitimize Alois and legally change his name. Thus, records Bullock, ''From the beginning of 1877, 12 years before Adolf was born, his father called himself Hitler, and his son was never known by any other name until his opponents dug up this long-forgotten village scandal and tried, without justification, to label him with his grandmother's name of Schicklgruber.'''

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This letter to the editor of the Times points out that the Schicklgruber myth was perhaps the most successful propaganda victory of American psychological warfare experts, believed even by the Times in 1990.

I don't care what their first names are, all Grubers are banned from this site because . . .

. . . in the end they're all idiots.

US Senate votes 56-40 last night just before 10PM to approve Cromnibus spending bill

The 40 votes against this p.o.s. illustrate the minority which represents what passes for the extreme wings of the two political gangs which tyrannize this country:

22 Democrats

Blumenthal (D-CT)
Booker (D-NJ)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Franken (D-MN)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Harkin (D-IA)
Hirono (D-HI)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Levin (D-MI)
Manchin (D-WV)
Markey (D-MA)
McCaskill (D-MO)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Merkley (D-OR)
Reed (D-RI)
Sanders (I-VT)
Tester (D-MT)
Warren (D-MA)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wyden (D-OR)

18 Republicans

Corker (R-TN)
Crapo (R-ID)
Cruz (R-TX)
Flake (R-AZ)
Grassley (R-IA)
Heller (R-NV)
Johnson (R-WI)
Lee (R-UT)
McCain (R-AZ)
Moran (R-KS)
Paul (R-KY)
Portman (R-OH)
Risch (R-ID)
Rubio (R-FL)
Scott (R-SC)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Vitter (R-LA)

Four senators decided showing up wasn't worth it:

Chambliss (R-GA)
Coburn (R-OK)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Inhofe (R-OK)

These are the 24 Republican traitors to fiscal conservatism who voted for the bill:

Alexander (R-TN)
Ayotte (R-NH)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Blunt (R-MO)
Boozman (R-AR)
Burr (R-NC)
Coats (R-IN)
Cochran (R-MS)
Collins (R-ME)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Enzi (R-WY)
Fischer (R-NE)
Graham (R-SC)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johanns (R-NE)
Kirk (R-IL)
McConnell (R-KY)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Thune (R-SD)
Toomey (R-PA)
Wicker (R-MS)

And these the 32 Democrats:

Baldwin (D-WI)
Begich (D-AK)
Bennet (D-CO)
Cardin (D-MD)
Carper (D-DE)
Casey (D-PA)
Coons (D-DE)
Donnelly (D-IN)
Durbin (D-IL)
Hagan (D-NC)
Heinrich (D-NM)
Heitkamp (D-ND)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kaine (D-VA)
King (I-ME)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murphy (D-CT)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reid (D-NV)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Schatz (D-HI)
Schumer (D-NY)
Shaheen (D-NH)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Udall (D-CO)
Udall (D-NM)
Walsh (D-MT)
Warner (D-VA).

Screwing the American people is a bipartisan affair, but leans Democrat 1.3:1.

L'affaire Lena Dunham disturbs libertarian P. J. O'Rourke


There is yet hope for our world.

Stupid things heard on the Steve Gruber Show radio program last week

Both the AM drive-time host, Steve Gruber, a libertarian for whom every opponent is taken as a challenge to his manhood, and his weekly punching bag guest, Liberal Lee, last Tuesday agreed that the middle class in America is basically . . .  intact!

Which just proves that ideologues are impervious to the destruction which has been all around them and that libertarians and liberals drink from the same cup. Both camps are too heavily invested in the political gangs they support to say otherwise, for if the one did it would mean George Bush and Alan Greenspan would have to be blamed, and if the other, Barack Obama, Larry Summers and the rest of the Clinton re-treads which steered the economy through the latest depression to give you . . . nearly $90 billion in costs for over 500 failed banks, over 5 million homes lost to foreclosure, full-time jobs still 4 million below the 2007 peak seven years ago, ObamaCare's lies, higher costs, poorer coverage and limited networks, the deaths of Americans at Benghazi, IRS targeting of conservatives, the most imperial presidency in our history, 30 million prime working age people not working, a lawless executive, and 1.8% GDP, the worst in the post-war.

For his part, Gruber basically gave over a segment on his show every week this fall to the reelection campaign of Congressman Tim Walberg, a conventional Republican who normally votes with the majority of his caucus, but who did vote against making the Bush tax cuts permanent for the vast majority of Americans. Walberg notably just rewarded his radio benefactor who opposed Cromnibus with a vote for it, in keeping with his past voting record for sweeping spending bills which avoid the traditional appropriations process in order to take the politics out of spending the people's money. Hey, thanks Gruber.

The Steve Gruber Show is unfortunately heard on many small market radio stations during morning drive throughout Michigan, which through August 2014 was the top state for completed foreclosures among non-judicial states for the prior twelve month period. But the show's best rank is only #3 in the Lansing market according to dar.fm, and #31 in the mornings overall, here. The best thing that can be said for it is that the stations it is on are typically low-power, like its commentary. 

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Is the economy up because wine drinkers wake up and can't remember where they left their underwear?

It doesn't say if you can wear these home.
Both indicators are up, wine sales and underwear sales.

Stories here and here and here.

The best way to get John Boehner to do what you want him to do

Reduce the size of his congressional district to 30,000 as the framers of the constitution intended.

Crazy WaPo article portrays middle class as complete creature of government spending

Here, focusing on the anecdotal history of the middle class in Downey, California, where the removal of spending on the space program has hit particularly hard.

Just the sort of deliberate Keynesian propaganda you would expect from The Washington Post, where you will also find narry a word mentioned about how America's turnabout to free-trade fanaticism during the 1960s started the wholesale export abroad of good-paying middle class jobs, the dearth of which now is our present predicament.

The sickness of Republicanism in the present liberal era has been how ready it has been to participate in profiting from the export of these jobs, and by masking how the middle class was being gutted by providing transfer payments to them, for example, in the form of tax credits.

If there's every been a time for a middle class rebellion in America, this is it. Unfortunately, so many of the middle class are now in the lower class that, if a revolt comes, it will be studiously lied about by the profiteering elites of both parties as a dangerous, left-wing proletarian revolution.

There is a way to take the country back which is not violent, however, but it requires Americans to demand the representation which they do not enjoy. It requires a transformation of their vision in conformity with a constitution which never imagined there was anything sacrosanct about the number "435". 


Obama's war on growth: Per capita measure shows GDP didn't recover to 2007 level until 3Q2013

So says Ironman, here:

"Going by this measure we see that it wasn't until the third quarter of 2013 that the U.S. economy really recovered to its pre-recession level. And then, it has only been since the second quarter of 2014 that it has grown beyond that level.

"The interesting thing is that tracking the GDP per capita measure this way would more closely match the perceptions of the American people regarding the overall health of the U.S. economy. Say as measured by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which returned to its prerecession levels just a few months ahead of real GDP per capita.

"Contrary to what at least one particular economist [Jonathan Gruber] and his fellow travelers [Bill Maher/Kathleen Sebelius] might think about their cognitive abilities and financial literacy, regular Americans would seem to be pretty capable of collectively assessing the real condition of the U.S. economy."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, self-perceptions matter.

Coincident with the extraordinarily long 6 year wait for the real economy to recover, the self-identification of the American people by lower class in January 2014 has swelled by 50 million since 2008, according to the results of a regular Pew survey, showing just how many people have died on the vine of a militant, leftist Obama administration and Democrat Party bent on destroying the middle class.

When the New York Times suddenly tells you after the election that 30 million prime-working-age Americans 25-54 aren't working, you know that where there's smoke, there's fire. With fewer than 5 million job openings in the country for those 30 million, legalizing 11 million illegal aliens isn't just an act of charity toward some, but a declaration of war against all.

Barack Obama has been burning down the house, one family at a time.


Friday, December 12, 2014

Gold is the last man standing: Gold/oil ratio soars to 21.21 as oil tanks to 57.56

Two men enter, one man leaves
Of all the commodities, it is gold which continues to hang on, averaging in the low 1200-range in recent months and closing tonight at 1222 and change.

It's looking like the last man standing.

S&P GSCI commodities indexes for precious metals, petroleum, agriculture and agriculture/livestock are all down year to date, and down significantly for the 1 year and 3 years. (Petroleum is down a whopping 37.99 year to date). But while the ags are virtually flat per annum over 10 years and petroleum is down 3.87 per annum over 10 years, precious metals alone remains up big over the last decade, 9.82 per annum, buttressed by gold. Pretty impressive.

This is somewhat surprizing given the six month surge in the dollar closing at 88.32 tonight, not far off the 89.55 high of a few days ago. In early May it was as low as 78.90. And 10 years ago, the dollar actually traded below 82 before embarking on an erratic history of ups and downs before stabilizing in the 80s after 2011, the year that gold peaked. But for the 1 year now the dollar is up over 10% while the average gold price to date hasn't retreated as much as 3%.

If a rising dollar is supposed to be killing off gold, we don't see it yet.

30 million prime working age Americans 25-54 do not work, and 10 million are men, competing for fewer than 5 million openings

The New York Times reports here:

"As the economy slowly recovers from the Great Recession, many of those men and women are eager to find work and willing to make large sacrifices to do so. Many others, however, are choosing not to work, according to a New York Times/CBS News/Kaiser Family Foundation poll that provides a detailed look at the lives of the 30 million Americans 25 to 54 who are without jobs. ... [S]ome men might choose to describe themselves as unwilling to take low-wage jobs when in fact they cannot find any jobs. There are about 10 million prime-age men who are not working, but there are only 4.8 million job openings for men and women of all ages, according to the most recent federal data."


Middle class revolution on hold, but CNBC commenter calls for military coup

Rick Newman says the middle class revolution is on hold here, but apparently spends less time reading the comments sections than he says:

"[A] populist threat to the plutocrats ... is years or even decades away. ... These days, all you have to do is read the blogs and follow the right Twitter ... accounts. If you do, you’ll encounter plenty of angst — but not much revolutionary zeal."

Oh really?

I've never seen anything on CNBC, of all places, like what I saw there this morning, here:

"There is only one entity that can stop the madness. ... There may be no option in the very near future but for the military to assume responsibility of running the country on behalf of the people and for the well being of the country. You must make it abundantly clear to the people (after you have commandered the MSM) that this is being done to preserve what was intended by the founding fathers - a free and just society that abides by the rule of law under all circumstances and does not change or abuse the law for convenience. For you military lawyers you would be wise to bone up on your Constitutional Law because if the Supremes do not play ball then they too must be unappointed. You are saying; 'but this would be treason'. Is it? When your Congress, President and Intelligence agencies arguably commit treason on a virtually continual basis who is exactly on the 'right' side. The time is quickly approaching where the glorification of Wall Street and the elitist classes that depend upon their treachery must end. How many more hard working Americans must have their potential prosperity irrepairably and irreversibly damaged by Wall Street's malfeasance before affirmative action is taken? Courage is one of the main tenets of the millitary ethos - prove it when the time comes."

139 Democrats vote against Cromnibus and make theirs look like the party of fiscal conservatism


Nine Michigan Congressmen vote for Cromnibus, five against

For Cromnibus:

Benishek
Huizenga
Camp
Upton
Walberg
Rogers
Miller (D)
Dingell (D)
Peters (D)

Against Cromnibus:

Amash
Kildee (D)
Levin (D)
Bentivolio
Conyers (D)

The roll call vote is here.

Despite trillion$ in Federal interventions, the homeowner piggy bank remains barely half full