People who live in walled states shouldn't throw stones, even if they have plenty.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Trump's critics of his investment success need to get a new calculator, and some brains
This morning on the Chris Plante Show on WMAL a caller complained that Trump inherited $200 million and that anyone could have $10 billion after 30 years, too, just by investing in a CD.
Chris Plante said "that's some CD"!
This meme is now ubiquitous in the media critical of Trump, and while not as obviously silly as this morning's example the critics nevertheless display remarkable investment ignorance.
Grant for a moment that Trump inherited $200 million, and keep in mind that that is the upper end of the estimates, which go as low as $40 million. Also keep in mind it's mostly real estate, not cash, not stocks, not bonds, a completely different business.
$200 million invested in the S&P 500 for 30 years from 1985 to 2015 yielded $4.2 billion, or just 42% of the net worth Trump claims to have accumulated over the period. The actual average nominal rate of return for the S&P 500 was 10.75% per annum, dividends fully reinvested. The $10 billion net worth claim, on the other hand, represents an annual net rate of return of 13.93%, again assuming the investment of $200 million, almost 30% better every year than what the S&P 500 actually yielded. But again, the S&P 500 return is not net. You still have to deduct taxes, inflation and expenses from that, which is an individual calculation and highly variable, and in New York can be quite onerous.
On the other end of the scale, the investment of $40 million becoming $10 billion is the equivalent of a net return of 20.21% per annum, 88% better than the S&P 500 nominal return every year on average.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but no matter how you cut it, Donald Trump capitalized on what he was given in a way which has been exceptionally more successful than what most people ever experience.
He's Yuge.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
FBI successful at recovering e-mails from "wiped" Hillary private server used while she was Secretary of State
Bloomberg originally reported here:
The FBI has recovered personal and work-related e-mails from the private computer server used by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, according to a person familiar with the investigation. ... Internal government watchdogs have determined that classified information ended up on the system. Their findings sparked the FBI inquiry. ... There has been some question as to whether Clinton deleted her messages or took the more thorough and technical step of “wiping” the server. [Andy] Boian said Tuesday that Platte River [Networks] had “no knowledge of it being wiped.”
Is Hillary worried we'll find the birther e-mail on her server?
Hillary's vigorous denial of the birther story only lends more credence to the charge that she started the birther movement. If it's so ludicrous, why give it this credibility?
Hillary throwing up the smokescreen here, never mentioning that Politico reported, not the right wing, that the anonymous birther e-mail (!) circulated in the Clinton campaign in early 2008:
HILLARY CLINTON: That is – no. That is so ludicrous, Don. You know, honestly, I just believe that, first of all, it’s totally untrue, and secondly, you know, the President and I have never had any kind of confrontation like that. You know, this is such a bad example of what’s wrong with, you know, instantaneous reactions and Americans getting all worked up and people feeding prejudice and paranoia like Donald Trump. And obviously all of us have to stand against it. And, you know, I have been blamed for nearly everything, that was a new one to me, but you know, I’ll just keep going and talking about what I want to do to get income risings and making college affordable and making all of the positive changes that we have to be worried about.
Ben Carson shifts a little, allows a Muslim who forswears Sharia could be president
Ben Carson, quoted here:
"If they embrace our Constitution and are willing to place that above their religious beliefs, I have no problem with that. ... I think anybody, regardless of their religion, if they are willing to embrace the values and principles of America and our Constitution and subject their beliefs to the Constitution, I have no problem with that at all. And that's perfectly reasonable."
Carly Fiorina is a Dreamer, supports citizenship for the children brought here by illegal aliens
From the story here:
“Following her town hall at Iowa State University in Ames, Fiorina said she would be open to passing a version of the Dream Act to grant citizenship for young undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children,” reported NBC News.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
WaPo rips papal visit to Cuba's Castro, concluding "it takes more fortitude to challenge a dictatorship than a democracy"
The editorial is here, which I was able to see without a paywall.
When WaPo rips the church for hypocrisy, it makes sure you know it.
Someone should ask Ben Carson to swear to place the Constitution above the writings of Ellen G. White
Ben Carson, quoted here:
BEN CARSON: Now if someone has a Muslim background and they are willing to reject those anti-democratic] tenets [of some Islamic theocracies] and will swear to place our Constitution above their religion, then of course they will be considered infidels and heretics, but I would be quite willing to support them...
Monday, September 21, 2015
Gov. Scott Walker has large personal debt problems, consistent with reports of his negative net worth
Reported here:
"The Republican presidential candidate has cast himself as both a fiscal conservative leader and a penny-pinching everyman on the campaign trail, often touting his love of Kohl’s, the discount department store. His newly published financial disclosure shows that, like many Americans, Walker has few assets, some major debts (including more than $100,000 for student loans for his children), and a punishing interest rate on his credit-card obligations. Walker incurred one credit-card debt with Barclays in 2014, according to the financial disclosure form, and owed between $10,000 and $15,000 at a 27.24 percent interest rate as of July 2015. ... One of Walker’s credit-card debts, to Bank of America, dates back to 2011, his first year as governor, according to the disclosure form. Walker currently owes between $10,000 and $15,000 on that one, with an interest rate of 11.99 percent."
Flip-flopping Scott Walker ends campaign for president, declares war on Trump
Scott Walker's entire political career comes to an ignoble end, lashing out at the man who seized the issue of the time, illegal immigration, from his hands.
Watch Walker triangulate again in the near future and moderate his position on amnesty back to what it was just a couple of years ago. Walker never really opposed amnesty. He just wanted the Republican base to think he did, and now proves it.
The Guardian had the money quotes, here:
“Today, I believe that I am being called to lead by helping to clear the field in this race so that a positive conservative message can rise to the top,” Walker said. “With this in mind, I am suspending my campaign indefinitely.” Walker encouraged other candidates to do the same, “so that voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive, conservative alternative to the current frontrunner.”
A small man was he, not ready for prime time.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Why George W. Bush was wrong not to kill everybody and break everything in Afghanistan
Kill 'em all, let Allah sort 'em out.
Alexis Tsipras and Syriza consolidate power in Greece without the anti-austerity rebels
At this hour with 75% of the vote counted, Alexis Tsipras and Syriza are set to return to power and head the Greek government for the next four years with 145 seats and a coalition with the Independent Greeks as before, but without the Syriza rebels who left to form Popular Unity. The latter isn't polling even 3% and will not win one seat, meaning there is no viable party representing anti-austerity or a return to the drachma. Turn out at 56% hasn't been this low since 1946 when only 53% turned out when leftists boycotted the election.
US House voted Friday to defund Planned Parenthood 241-187, Justin Amash joins the party
The Roll Call vote is here.
Justin Amash of Michigan, the formerly "consistent" conservative, decided this time to vote to defund, whereas in 2011 he voted "present".
There is no explanation up on his Facebook page as far as I can tell at this hour, his usual claim to fame being that he explains every vote there.
Estimated net worth of Democrats for president in 2016
Chafee $43 million
Clinton $21.5 million
Warren $6.69 million
Webb $4.6 million
Biden $600,000
Sanders $330,506
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)