Don't let anybody tell you cattle futures create profits easily

Joni Ernst scares Paul Begala: It's a good thing

The Forehead wets himself, here:

[I]f it was a serious statement of philosophy, it was chilling -- even scary. Joni Ernst, the Iowa candidate who has vaulted to within an inch of United States Senate due to her boasting of hog castration in this year's most inventive political ad, was speaking to the National Rifle Association in 2012. "I do believe in the right to carry, and I believe in the right to defend myself and my family -- whether it's from an intruder, or whether it's from the government, should they decide that my rights are no longer important." . . . [I]t's one thing to hear, say, goofball Ted Nugent honk off that way. (The Nuge, by the way, has boasted about how he avoided taking up arms in defense of his country during Vietnam.) It is another to know that someone with those loopy views is one step away from the United States Senate.

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Speaking of loopy views, Thomas Jefferson, a step away from the presidency and writing about Shays Rebellion in 1787, had liars like Paul Begala who talks only of The Whiskey Rebellion in mind when he said this about taking up arms as a warning to rulers:

The British ministry have so long hired their gazetteers to repeat and model into every form lies about our being in anarchy, that the world has at length believed them, the English nation has believed them, the ministers themselves have come to believe them, and what is more wonderful, we have believed them ourselves. Yet where does this anarchy exist? Where did it ever exist, except in the single instance of Massachusets? And can history produce an instance of a rebellion so honourably conducted? I say nothing of its motives. They were founded in ignorance, not wickedness. God forbid we should ever be 20. years without such a rebellion. The people can not be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions it is a lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty. We have had 13. states independant 11. years. There has been one rebellion. That comes to one rebellion in a century and a half for each state. What country ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure. 

The gold/oil ratio remains at par tonight

The gold/oil ratio ends the week at 15.2, meaning the price of gold relative to the price of oil is just about right.

1231.8/81.01 = 15.2.

Bank Failure Friday: the 16th in 2014

The National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, failed tonight, costing the FDIC $111.6 million, a fairly big one by recent standards.

The bank was an Indian-American-owned bank, specializing in the hotel and motel lending business. 

The rising share of US workers not making the average wage 1990-2013

The raw average of net compensation for Social Security purposes has risen 113% since 1990, from $20,172 in 1990 to $43,041 in 2013.

The share of workers not earning as much as the raw average of net compensation has risen 6% over the period, from 63% of workers in 1990 to 66.9% in 2013.

In 1990 there were 127.5 million wage earners, 63% of whom made less than $20,172. If 63% of workers in 2013 didn't make as much as the average wage of $43,041 instead of the actual 66.9%, they would have numbered 98.1 million in 2013. Instead they numbered 104.2 million. 

The workforce recession is "over": Social Security wage earners finally surpass the 2007 peak in 2013

The wage statistics report for 2013 from Social Security came out today and shows that the number of workers for Social Security purposes has finally in 2013 exceeded the level first reached in 2007, after bottoming out in 2010. The level in 2013 is not up by much since 2007, but 200,000 workers is 200,000 workers. Unfortunately, however, the population level is up far more than that over the period . . . by 15 million net. And more people regrettably are also making less than the raw average shown. Between 2007 and 2013 these have increased from 66.6% of workers to 66.9%.

2007: 155.57 million workers/net compensation $6.03 trillion = $38,760 per worker

2008: 155.43 million workers/net compensation $6.16 trillion = $39,631 per worker

2009: 150.91 million workers/net compensation $5.89 trillion = $39,029 per worker

2010: 150.39 million workers/net compensation $6.00 trillion = $39,896 per worker

2011: 151.38 million workers/net compensation $6.23 trillion = $41,154 per worker

2012: 153.63 million workers/net compensation $6.52 trillion = $42,439 per worker

2013: 155.77 million workers/net compensation $6.70 trillion = $43,012 per worker

National Rifle Association political arm doesn't endorse Republicans Justin Amash and Ruth Johnson in Michigan

Rep. Justin Amash, MI-3, gets a "B-" grade from the NRA's Political Victory Fund, while Secretary of State Ruth Johnson gets a "B" grade. Amash is notable for crossing the aisle to lend support on 4th Amendment issues and to argue for enforcing the War Powers Act, but many of his friends on the right are disappointed with Amash's voting record on the 2nd Amendment, among other things.

The Republican governor of the state, Rick Snyder, also gets a "B" grade from the NRA, but unlike Amash and Johnson, Rick Snyder gets an endorsement.

There isn't a single other endorsement of a B-graded politician in the state as of September 15th, and just six Democrats receive endorsements, all in Michigan's House of Representatives, which has 110 (!) districts.

The NRA endorses no one in six of Michigan's fourteen US House districts, and endorses Terry Lynn Land for US Senate and gives her opponent, Gary Peters, an "F" grade.

Other notables getting "F" grades are Amash's opponent Bob Goodrich in MI-3, a fellow traveler if ever there was one, Dan Kildee in MI-5, Pam Byrnes in MI-7, Sander Levin in MI-9, Amash's buddy John Conyers Jr. in MI-13, and Brenda Lawrence in MI-14. Conyers infamously likes to read Playboy for the articles in coach class, and couldn't get enough signatures to be on the ballot this time but got on anyway with help from a Democrat judge.

More getting "F" grades are State Senate Democrats Coleman A. Young II in District 1, Morris W. Hood III in District 3, David Knezek in District 5, Rebekah Warren in District 18 and Shari Pollesch in District 22.

There's just one "F" grade in the State House: District 2's Democrat incumbent Alberta Tinsley-Talabi.

Republicans in the State Senate with grades less than "A" like Amash include Mike Nofs in District 19 with a "B-", Brendt Gerics in District 27 with a "C+", and Darwin L. Booher in District 35 with a "B".

Low scoring Republicans in the State House include:

Kelly Thompson in District 12 with a "C"
Harry Sawicki in District 13 with a "B-"
Nathan Inks in District 14 with a "C"
Carol Ann Fausone in District 21 with a "B-"
Michael Ryan in District 27 with a "B-"
Michael D. McCready in District 40 with a "D"
Henry Vaupel in District 47 with a "B-"
Lu Penton in District 49 with a "C"
Eric Leutheuser in District 58 with a "B"
Brandt Iden in District 61 with a "B"
John Bizon in District 62 with a "B+"
David C. Maturen in District 63 with a "B-"
Chris Afendoulis in District 73 with a "C"
Donijo DeJonge in District 76 with a "B-"
Carlos Jaime in District 96 with a "B+"
and Larry C. Inman in District 104 with a "C+". 

United Parcel Service again to raise rates broadly beginning December 29th, by nearly 5%

When's the last time you got a 5% raise?

Story here:

UPS says it is raising rates for a number of its shipping services by an average of 4.9 percent for 2015. The Atlanta-based company said Monday it is increasing rates for its ground, air, international, UPS Freight, and UPS air freight rates within and between the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. The increase goes into effect on Dec. 29.

Similarly-sized rate increases occurred in both 2011 and 2012, reported here:

According to company officials, non-contractual 2012 rates will be comprised of a net increase of 4.9 percent for UPS ground packages and a net increase of 4.9 percent on all UPS air services and U.S. origin international shipments. This increase is identical to the one the transportation bellwether rolled out a year ago for 2011 rate hikes.

Uh huh.

The all-items CPI rose by 1.4% in 2010, 3.02% in 2011, 1.76% in 2012 and just 1.5% in 2013, despite all the federal interventions to target inflation at 2.0%. The average rise was 1.9%.

Average hourly earnings nationwide, meanwhile, over the exact same periods increased by 1.7% in 2010, 1.98% in 2011, 2.11% in 2012 and 1.94% in 2013.  The average rise was also 1.9%.  

Since the last market peak in August 2000, real returns from stocks have averaged just 1.61% per year through August 2014

politicalcalculations.blogspot.com

The inflation-adjusted market peak was in August 2000 at S&P500 2044.67, still unequalled (2011.36 is as high as we've gotten). Through August 2014, your average real return from stocks, that is, your return adjusted for inflation with dividends fully reinvested along the way, has been just 1.61% per year for 14 years. Without dividend reinvestment, your return actually has been negative annually because of inflation. Nominally your return has been 3.95% per year, dividends reinvested.

Compare bonds over the last 15 years to date. Take VBMFX, Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund. Morningstar shows your nominal 15 year return this morning at 5.49% per annum. VBIIX, Vanguard's Intermediate Term Bond Index Fund, has done even better, at 6.59% per annum, nominal.

Clearly, bonds have beaten stocks over the long haul since 2000. And valuations tell you why. Yardsticks such as the Shiller p/e have not dipped below 15 to any meaningful degree over the whole period, meaning stocks have been pricey for the performance you get. The higher the price, the poorer the return.

Expect the same from stocks going forward as long as valuations remain as elevated as they are. Today's Shiller p/e starts out at 24.95.

Conservatives should dump AT&T

In Michigan AT&T backs adding sexual orientation and gender expression to Michigan's civil rights legislation in order to prohibit differential treatment by employers based on those.

Religious and religious employers take note.

You have choice! Comcast, Charter, cell phone companies, etc.

And definitely dump the TV sewer pipe into your house. I dumped television when analog went away a few years ago, and I haven't missed a thing except wanting to shoot the screen. Keeps my BP under control, too, the natural way.

Story here.

Net worth of $3,650 puts you in the top half globally

So quit complaining.

Story here.

Campaign finance reform: Repeal the 17th Amendment

In 2012 there were 33 Senate seats up for grabs, and the cost to a candidate of winning one averaged $10.5 million, if the popular estimates of what winning candidates raised are to be believed. That's something like $700 million total spent by both the winners and losers.

For all 435 House seats the candidates spent something like $1.5 billion, with $1.7 million spent on average by each winner.

With $6 billion total spent on the 2012 Congressional election from all sources thanks to additional PAC spending courtesy of a US Supreme Court ruling, the candidates themselves therefore spent at most $2.2 billion while outside interests spent an additional $3.8 billion to elect both "your" representative and "your" Senator. No wonder you like them so much.

The five most expensive races alone in 2012 were for Senate seats, and cost from all sources in excess of $376 million, $142 million of which came from "outside" sources, 38% of the total. Assuming that $700 million was spent by all 33 Senate candidates themselves in 2012, and adding an additional 38% from outside sources, that would put the cost of the 2012 Senate election from all sources close to $1 billion for just the 33 seats. For the whole lot of 100 Senators, then, we are in reality talking $3 billion for the whole Senate, plus the $5 billion for the whole House in that snapshot of time in 2012, for a total of $8 billion.

That makes your Senator a $30 million target, while your representative is a paltry $11.5 million one by comparison.

You could fix 72% of what's wrong with our politics in this country in an instant by repealing the popular election of Senators.

Just undo it. 

Total Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio for the third and final estimate of 2Q GDP

Total market cap on June 30th: $25.0353 trillion

Final estimate of 2Q GDP: $17.3282 trillion

Ratio at the end of June 2014: 1.445

Ratio at year end 1981: 0.480

Ratio at year end 2000: 1.420

Ratio at year end 2008: 0.740

SELL! (imho)

The difference between AIDS and Ebola

AIDS doesn't liquify your internal organs within two weeks of infection.

E.B.O.L.A.

Enjoy Barack Obama's legacy, America.

S&P500 swoon is really not much to date, despite the volatility

The index at 1886.76 is about 6% off the peak reached on September 18.

Down 10% would qualify as a correction, down 20% as a bear market.

It's still a great time to sell! Your Peter Cundill sell markers are roughly S&P500 1900, 1700 and 1500, depending on how much you want to risk losing. 

The dollar closed tonight at 85.19

The 52-week high was 86.746 on October 3. The 52-week low was 78.906 on May 8, just five months ago.

I don't find that big of a move in so short a space very encouraging yet. A stable price at a high level is better. Let's see what it can do.

Gold and oil tonight are fairly valued one to the other

The gold/oil ratio comes in at 14.973, which is effectively par.

Gold is $1239 the ounce, oil $82.75 the barrel.

Bank Failure Friday is back with the fifteenth in 2014 in the state of Maryland

NBRS Financial, Rising Sun, Maryland, failed tonight, costing the FDIC $24.3 million. It is bank failure number fifteen in 2014.

FDIC insured institutions number 6,656 through June.

Amber Vinson was told by CDC she could fly on Monday, on Wednesday CDC tells airline she may have been already symptomatic

Committing malpractice in spades, the Centers for Disease Consumption told the infected Ebola nurse Amber Vinson she could fly on Monday even though she told them she had a fever, reported here:

Vinson told CBS Dallas Fort Worth that she was feeling ill before boarding her flight. She had a low grade fever, but she said that officials told her it was okay to get on the plane. Vinson told CBS that she called the CDC several times with concerns.

Ebola is only contagious when a patient is symptomatic. Vinson's 99.5 degrees Fahrenheit fever wasn't high enough to be considered a symptom.

The CDC confirmed to FOX 4 News that they gave Vinson the green light to fly. "Vinson was not told that she could not fly," a government spokesperson told NBC News.

Vinson's comments contradict remarks made earlier today by CDC Director Tom Freiden, who said that she never should have gotten on the plane.

On Wednesday night, a letter from Frontier Airlines CEO Dave Siegel to airline employees claimed that the CDC had notified the airline that Vinson may have had symptoms while on the flight, The Denver Channel reported. "At 1:55 p.m. MDT (Wednesday) Frontier was notified by the CDC that the passenger may have been symptomatic earlier than initially suspected; including the possibility of possessing symptoms while onboard the flight," the letter said. This would conflict with CDC's earlier statement that she didn't have symptoms of the illness while she was on the flight and didn't start showing symptoms until Tuesday.