Saturday, August 18, 2012

Another Voice Saying Rep. Paul Ryan Isn't Serious About Cutting Spending

Peter Schiff:

So what was the Ryan Budget's radical departure from the status quo that has caused such uproar? If enacted today, the Ryan budget would so drastically upend the fiscal picture that the U.S. federal budget would come into balance in just... wait for it.... 27 years! This is because the Ryan budget doesn't actually cut anything. At no point in Ryan's decades long budget timeline does he ever suggest that the government spend less than it had the year before. He doesn't touch a penny in current Social Security or Medicare outlays, nor in the bloated defense budget. His apocalypse inducing departure comes from trying to limit the rate of increase in federal spending to "just" 3.1% annually. This is below the 4.3% rate of increase that is currently baked into the budget, and farther below what we would likely see if Obama's priorities were adopted.

Read the whole thing here.

Who Needs A Bullet-Proof Vest When You've Got This?


"VP Joe Biden Is A Stock Looking For A Bottom"

As just stated by Larry Kudlow on WABC Radio.

Central Bank/Institutional Gold Demand Is Running at 630 Tonnes Annualized

The pace of gold acquisition by central bankers and institutions looks to have picked up over 50 percent in Q2 2012 over the 400 tonne-pace set between March 2011 and March 2012, according to this story:


Demand for gold from central banks and official sector institutions more than doubled in the second quarter of this year to 157.5 metric tons from the same quarter a year ago, according to a World Gold Council (WGC) report released Thursday.

That marked a record quarter for central bank buying since the sector began recording net purchases in the second quarter of 2009, according to the WGC report. Central banks in Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and South Korea were among the big buyers.

If You Can't Spell 'Commodities' Don't Listen To Jim Rogers

So says Jim Rogers himself, here:


"But people – if they can’t spell commodities, they shouldn’t be listening to me. They should be doing what they know about."

How To Tell Who Is Winning

If the debate we're having is about taxes, the liberals are winning. If it's about spending, the conservatives are. Just never forget that winning isn't the same thing as success.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Oil Is Still "On Sale"

Oil is still "on sale", but the discount relative to gold has declined a little bit.

The gold to oil ratio stands at 16.8, which represents a mark-down of roughly only 12 percent for oil. Gold has firmed up in the neighborhood of 1615 of late, presumably on central bank acquisitions replacing coin demand. And saber rattling and unrest in the Middle East continue to put pressure on oil prices, moving the ratio closer to the theoretical norm of 15.

We've had gold to oil ratios much higher than 15 in recent months, including hits of 19.5 and the like.  But I don't like oil and gold at any of these prices. I'm not acquiring these and I'm holding what I've got because I bought them low.

Assets remain inflated overall.

I Built This Blog, And Obama Can Kiss My Sweet German-American Ass


















And I approve this message, too.

Praetorian Guard Openly Turns On Obama

The owner of a Virginia business said 'No' to a visit by VP Joe Biden because of Obama's 'You didn't build that' remark, so the Secret Service detail for Biden went in and bought a bunch of stuff to thank him, according to this local story:


Here's the back story, we’re told that shortly after Crumb and Get It told Biden’s advance people 'no' -- the secret service walked in and told Chris McMurray ''Thanks for standing up and saying 'no' -- then they bought a whole bunch of cookies and cupcakes.

McMurray said he's hoping folks will understand he just didn't want to be part of a photo op for an administration whose policies he doesn’t agree with.



GIVE US YOUR COLLEGE TRANSCRIPTS!


Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The New York Times Uncorks The Wildest Slur Yet Against The Tea Party

Suddenly the Tea Party is the most selfish, arrogant and yet servile lot on the planet, according to one Jennifer Burns, an assistant professor at Stanford, for The New York Times, here:

". . . the Tea Party, whose members believe they are the only ones who deserve government aid."


Wow. Haven't heard that one yet. Is that what it takes to get tenure at Stanford these days? The intimate connection she divines between the Randians and the Tea Party is, quite simply, the sort of fantasy one might expect of someone trying to find something new to say. Not that the Shruggers wouldn't like to co-opt the Tea Party. They would, and they are trying, as is the Republican Party's Dick Armey, which is enough to give anyone who has watched them from the beginning the staggers. The spontaneous revulsion of common, everyday folk in America to the designs of their elected leaders provoked the reaction which is the Tea Party, most of which is as non-ideological as a hamburger. 


I dunno, maybe she's confusing the Tea Party with Occupy Wall Street, some of whose members are infamous for demanding student loan forgiveness, and the right to poop on your stoop.

Just two years ago in Slate Mark Gimein could reasonably characterize the Tea Party as "the responsibles" who rose up against "the deadbeats", homeowners who had stopped paying on their mortgages and wanted bailouts from the Obama regime even as millions of underwater homeowners continued to pay on theirs.

I guess Jennifer is fairly new to the planet.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Russian Attack Sub Punks Obama's Navy In Gulf Of Mexico For A MONTH

Spending hundreds of billions of dollars abroad on nation building and protecting US interests in Europe, East Asia and the Persian Gulf, Obama's US Navy continues to go to hell in a handbasket, and along with it the very security of the US mainland.

A Russian attack sub operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks in June and July, armed with nuclear-warhead-equipped cruise missiles in easy range of Kings Bay, Georgia:




















The U.S. Navy operates a strategic nuclear submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia. The base is homeport to eight missile-firing submarines, six of them equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles, and two armed with conventional warhead missiles. ...


The Navy is facing sharp cuts in forces needed to detect and counter such submarine activity.

The Obama administration’s defense budget proposal in February cut $1.3 billion from Navy shipbuilding projects, which will result in scrapping plans to build 16 new warships through 2017.

The budget also called for cutting plans to buy 10 advanced P-8 anti-submarine warfare jets needed for submarine detection.

Bill Gertz has the story here, detailing the growing threat being orchestrated by our Russian enemy Vladimir Putin in our own backyard in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the arctic. 



Romney May Well Tax Interest Earned On Life Insurance And Municipal Bonds

So says The Wall Street Journal, here, which approves as a way of helping pay for Romney's proposed across the board 20 percent tax cuts.

Without saying, of course, that this will shift costs from the rich who buy most of these bonds onto the broad base of taxpayers, in the form of higher taxes raised through property taxation. Property taxes will necessarily have to be increased because municipalities will have to pay more to borrow for spending on infrastructure, schools and the like without a ready pool of incentivized investors, i.e. the wealthy.

Municipal bonds are tax exempt for a reason: it makes borrowing cheaper and therefore taxes lower on the people who directly benefit from the spending. So what if the wealthy also benefit thereby? They should, and they do. For every bit of tax-free income the wealthy enjoy, someone somewhere has decent roads, schools and fire protection. It's not like the voters don't get to say No to such local spending. Property tax referenda are the meat and potatoes of local politics. 

This kind of cost-shifting was pretty much Romney's m/o in Massachusetts, where he made it almost an art form, increasing fees on businesses under the rubric of equalization, and on property tax payers of all kinds. Americans can probably expect the same from a President Romney, except on a much larger scale. It won't be spreading the wealth around to make people equal, it'll be spreading the taxation around, eliminating "loopholes".

Taxing interest gains from life insurance plans is a case in point. It will hurt any beneficiary of such plans, not just the rich. Think of a wife left with young children to raise, who will have just a little less left from her dead husband because she had to pay her fair share. And imagine having to pay tax on that life insurance when the buyer was counting on it to pay the taxes due on his estate so that his heirs wouldn't have to sell assets to do so. Talk about throwing a monkey wrench into the estate plans of countless millions.

Push here, and it comes out there.

Are Americans really going to vote for someone who is already getting bogged down in the weeds of tax loss expenditures? All Obama has to do in response to this is say Republicans are going to take away your tax deductions. This is not the way to sell the Republican brand.

As tax loss expenditures go, the two together add up to $90 billion annually in lost government revenue and benefit mostly the wealthy, according to an AEI source quoted in the editorial. Nevermind the $3.8 trillion we're already spending in this fiscal year is itself "lost government revenue".

Republicans ought to be saying every dollar spent by government is lost.

Don't hold your breath. 

David Stockman Misses An Opportunity: The Warfare State IS The Welfare State

The New York Times is only happy enough to run an op-ed from David Stockman, here, attacking the phony conservatism of the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan, in which he rather relishes pointing out, among other things, that when push came to shove Rep. Paul Ryan "folded like a lawn chair" and voted for TARP:


Thirty years of Republican apostasy — a once grand party’s embrace of the welfare state, the warfare state and the Wall Street-coddling bailout state — have crippled the engines of capitalism and buried us in debt. Mr. Ryan’s sonorous campaign rhetoric about shrinking Big Government and giving tax cuts to “job creators” (read: the top 2 percent) will do nothing to reverse the nation’s economic decline and arrest its fiscal collapse.

Mr. Ryan professes to be a defense hawk, though the true conservatives of modern times — Calvin Coolidge, Herbert C. Hoover, Robert A. Taft, Dwight D. Eisenhower, even Gerald R. Ford — would have had no use for the neoconconservative imperialism that the G.O.P. cobbled from policy salons run by Irving Kristol’s ex-Trotskyites three decades ago. These doctrines now saddle our bankrupt nation with a roughly $775 billion “defense” budget in a world where we have no advanced industrial state enemies and have been fired (appropriately) as the global policeman.

Mr. Stockman never once calls this Republicanism what it is. I suppose if he had the Times wouldn't have printed it. And I don't know how he really could since his family is allied with liberal social positions anyway. Paul Ryan isn't the only phony conservative liberal around.

But the truth is (someone's got to say it) the warfare state since Reagan is another consequence of liberalism, expressed as a failure of nerve with respect to conscription. Good wars are wars for which Americans more or less readily submit to the draft, fight successfully and end relatively quickly. They have the consent of the governed and are representative wars, conducted as they are by a cross-section of the population. Bad wars don't have the consent of the governed. And so these must emphasize among other things protecting warriors and civilians, not destroying the enemy's ability to make war, and are all too often fought to draws after protracted efforts. These cannot be conducted except with compliant volunteers, who come from more or less distinct sectors of American society: the South, and poor minorities. And these volunteers require enducements in addition to a commitment from government to their safety, such as citizenship, a college education, or a pension. As in the private sector, the military's single biggest cost is personnel, which explains perhaps more than anything the drive to mechanized war in a new form, the vanguard of which is drone technology. Can The Terminator be far behind?

The war in Afghanistan would be long over if we had destroyed its infrastructure, annihilated its people, and salted its poppy fields. But we couldn't do that. That would have been a war crime. And besides, where we would get our drugs then?

Liberalism, you see.


"Yet Reason frowns on war's unequal game,
Where wasted nations raise a single name,
And mortgaged states their grandsires' wreaths regret,
From age to age in everlasting debt;
Wreaths which at last the dear-bought right convey
To rust on medals, or on stones decay."

-- Samuel Johnson


Monday, August 13, 2012

Monetarist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Eats Keynes For Dinner, Austrians For Dessert

Frustratingly inconclusive and full of explanatory power at the same time, here:


Monetarists blame the ECB and the Fed for keeping money too tight in early to mid 2008, pushing a fragile credit system over the edge. They blame “pro-cyclical” regulators for aborting recovery ever since by forcing banks to raise asset ratios too fast. They are right on both counts.

Yet the `Austrian School’ is surely right as well to argue that a rise in debt ratios across the rich world from 167pc of GDP to 314pc in just thirty years was bound to end badly. There comes a point when extra debt draws down prosperity from the future. The future arrived in 2008.

How Would You Like A Monthly Mortgage Payment Of $72 Billion?

That's what it would take to pay off the total public debt of $16 trillion, financed at 3.5 percent, in 30 years: $25.920 trillion in total payments ($16 trillion principal/$9.92 trillion interest).

Got any collateral?

Notice The Subtle Anti-Reaganism Of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)

TARP Republican
Sen. Tom Coburn comes to bury Caesar, not to praise him, here:

"The last time Congress reformed the tax code was 26 years ago, which preceded the longest peacetime economic expansion in our history."

What's wrong with that? you say.

Well, that statement dates the longest peacetime economic expansion in our history from after 1986, ignoring that it actually began much earlier as a result of Reagan's stimulative tax cuts in the early 1980s. Now why would a Republican ignore that? Maybe because he's a Bush Republican who hates voodoo economics, the ungrateful louts who never defended the Gipper against the left's attacks then and still won't.

What's worse is that Sen. Coburn goes on to pretend that Reagan viewed tax credits with scorn like Martin Feldstein does:


Reagan’s key economic advisers such as Martin Feldstein persuasively argue that tax extenders are spending by another name. If tax carve-outs for green industry, rum makers, Eskimo whaling captains, and more, were on the other side of the ledger – such as in President Obama’s stimulus bill – they would be derided as spending, and rightly so.

Actually, Reagan defended spending through the tax code, for example, through the Earned Income Credit which he expanded considerably in the very 1986 tax reform Coburn praises, to get people off of welfare and into work.

Martin Feldstein may have been Reagan's economic advisor, but he was a deficit hawk who often collided with Reagan over spending, and left the service of the president after only two years, in 1984.

To rewrite the history of Ronald Reagan as Coburn does is completely dishonest.



Sunday, August 12, 2012

Obama's Enthusiasm For Bailouts Becomes National Socialism in Colorado Remarks

Obama views the GM auto bailout as an example of a successful government investment in the private sector, never mentioning, of course, that the success is at the expense of the former private investors in GM, its non-union elements, and of the tax-paying public. Without those, GM is still a failure, and should be again.

That Obama now says in Colorado that he wants to similarly rescue more companies, however, indicates that the bailout model was more to him than a one-off which he fortuitously inherited from the Republican establishment, an intellectually lazy cohort of Baby Boomers which long ago had betrayed free market principles. Obama's commitment to a model of government superintendence of private industry marks a new public face for an old familiar mixture of State and industry, the inspiration for which Herbert Hoover noted in his memoirs FDR had derived from Mussolini and the other strong men of Europe.

We all know what is the result of this type of thinking because we've already experienced it, not just in FDR's long failure, and not just in the recent auto company bailouts, but also in the rescue of the financial industry:

  • more moral hazard which has allowed so-called private banking players like the five or ten biggest banks to take even more unwarranted risks and grow ever larger and more too big to fail than ever, knowing the public purse is backing them up;
  • taxpayer-funded bailouts whose pain is never really felt by the taxpayers because, like most public spending, the bailouts are simply financed by more borrowing, which in their turn have only worsened the fiscal health of the nation and contributed to the loss of its once vaunted AAA rating;
  • corruption of elected public officials and bureaucrats whose crimes destroy the public's consent to be governed, as witnessed by the rise of protest movements like the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street, and by the capital strike by individual investors;
  • picking winners like multinational GE and Wall Street firms who reaped huge rewards in the form of tax breaks and bonuses because of their close relationship with government, and therefore by definition also picking losers on Main Street like small banks and entrepreneurs who can't beat the system because it is rigged against them, crushing confidence in "capitalism";
  • a complete repudiation of free market principles in which failure and bankruptcy become as unacceptable as saying "No" to the kids or as marking an "F" on a report card, unless for unrelated political reasons your industry happens to become a target for elimination, you know, like Chick-Fil-A, or the Roman Catholic Church in America.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Obama's remarks in Colorado is the way he is now touting his commitment to this model in explicitly nationalistic terms, emphasizing his as a patriotic concern for the American people to bring their jobs home, and Romney's as an unpatriotic intent to export those jobs.

Obama's socialism has been deemed a distraction by establishment Republicans, who find all the purported links between Obama and the communist left made by conservatives just a little too disturbing for polite conversation. It reminds them too much of the McCarthy era. But now explicitly linked to nationalism, Obama's remarks become an opportunity to refocus the conversation on the coincidence of these elements in fascism, which the left has hitherto succeeded in attacking and marginalizing as a phenomenon of the right, of conservatism.

Locating Obama in fascism actually makes better sense of his presidency to date. It explains the disillusionment of the left with him as a sell-out who has had the temerity to spend so much of his time enjoying himself instead of pushing their agenda, crafting policy to maximize campaign contributions from favored industries, and throwing his weight around as Commander In Chief. After one year progressives were already ridiculing his administration as a squandered presidency. And fascism also coheres with the interpretation of his experience in Chicago where he allied himself with financial, insurance and real estate interests and the Democrat Party to take over the property of the South Loop,  enrich themselves, and further their political careers. The president's friendship with Jeffrey Immelt is not a bug. It's a feature. 

The historical reality is that the fight between the communists and the fascists was always a fight on the common ground of socialism, rather like the fight between Democrats and Republicans has been a fight on the common ground of liberalism. The radicalization which occurred in the arguments between socialists culminating in the Second World War occurred because the conservatism of a prior monarchical age had completely lost its tempering force in society. The civilization of Europe was completely overcome from within by a capitulation to eschaton-immanentizing ideologies before it destroyed itself from without in war. In that process, liberalism was the vanguard softening up the enemy for the totalitarianism to come. Conservatism was beside the point then, but not here, not now.

In the arguments between Democrats and Republicans in our time, matters have not yet degenerated into such violence because the unique contributions of conservatism from the American Founding still inform much of the body politic. And the most important of those contributions, derived from human and religious experience both, has been the self-limiting conviction that human nature is not perfectible and always remains a mixture of good and evil which no rearrangement of human affairs can alter.  In the person of Barack Obama, however, we have met with someone who explicitly asserts otherwise, as an ideologue, that the union is perfectible. He deliberately goes out of his way to attack those individuals and institutions who know, believe and say otherwise. And armed with the imperial accoutrements gathered by his predecessors in the presidency, one might say that the people actually face for the first time a real and foreign threat in charge of the executive, a foreigner in his heart, mind, and affections who keeps his past sealed precisely because the revelation that he once presented himself as a foreigner for his own advantage even though he was born in Hawaii would offend more than actually being a foreigner.

Liberalism is defenseless against this because it drinks from the same cup of idealism. This is why it keeps quiet and doesn't look too deeply into President Obama. It is afraid it might see its own reflection. And this is also why a liberal like Mitt Romney can't bring himself to entertain Obama's socialism, let alone his national socialism. If it worked, he'd actually agree with it.

ABC News has the most recent formulations of Obama's national socialist vision here:

"When the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse, more than 1 million jobs at stake, Gov. Romney said, let’s ‘let Detroit go bankrupt.’ I said I believe in American workers, I believe in this American industry, and now the American auto industry has come roaring back and GM is number one again. So now, I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs, not just in the auto industry, but in every industry. I don’t want those jobs taking root in places like China. I want them taking root in places like Pueblo.  Gov. Romney brags about his private sector experience, but it was mostly investing in companies, some of which were called “pioneers” of outsourcing.  I don’t want to be a pioneer of outsourcing.  I want to in-source.  I want to stop giving tax breaks to companies that are shipping jobs overseas.” ...

"When the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse, 1 million jobs at stake, Mr. Romney said, ‘Let Detroit go bankrupt.’  I said, let’s bet on America’s workers.  And we got management and workers to come together, making better cars than ever. And now, GM is number one again and the American auto industry has come roaring back.   So now, I want to say what we did with the auto industry, we can do it in manufacturing across America.  Let’s make sure advanced, high-tech manufacturing jobs take root here, not in China.  Let’s have them here in Colorado.  And that means supporting investment here.”


Projected Unemployment Rate For August 12, 2014 Is 8.9 Percent

As calculated here:

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Conservatives Outnumber Liberals 2 To 1: If Only They Knew What That Meant

and sigmas aren't what they used to be at Cambridge

So Gallup, in January, here:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Political ideology in the U.S. held steady in 2011, with 40% of Americans continuing to describe their views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This marks the third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives.

In America you can be whatever you want to be, even if you're not what you say you are.

You know, like the Baptist preacher down the street who fancies himself a Greek scholar but misspells the English on his road sign.