Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Russian Attack Sub Punks Obama's Navy In Gulf Of Mexico For A MONTH

Spending hundreds of billions of dollars abroad on nation building and protecting US interests in Europe, East Asia and the Persian Gulf, Obama's US Navy continues to go to hell in a handbasket, and along with it the very security of the US mainland.

A Russian attack sub operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks in June and July, armed with nuclear-warhead-equipped cruise missiles in easy range of Kings Bay, Georgia:




















The U.S. Navy operates a strategic nuclear submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia. The base is homeport to eight missile-firing submarines, six of them equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles, and two armed with conventional warhead missiles. ...


The Navy is facing sharp cuts in forces needed to detect and counter such submarine activity.

The Obama administration’s defense budget proposal in February cut $1.3 billion from Navy shipbuilding projects, which will result in scrapping plans to build 16 new warships through 2017.

The budget also called for cutting plans to buy 10 advanced P-8 anti-submarine warfare jets needed for submarine detection.

Bill Gertz has the story here, detailing the growing threat being orchestrated by our Russian enemy Vladimir Putin in our own backyard in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the arctic. 



Romney May Well Tax Interest Earned On Life Insurance And Municipal Bonds

So says The Wall Street Journal, here, which approves as a way of helping pay for Romney's proposed across the board 20 percent tax cuts.

Without saying, of course, that this will shift costs from the rich who buy most of these bonds onto the broad base of taxpayers, in the form of higher taxes raised through property taxation. Property taxes will necessarily have to be increased because municipalities will have to pay more to borrow for spending on infrastructure, schools and the like without a ready pool of incentivized investors, i.e. the wealthy.

Municipal bonds are tax exempt for a reason: it makes borrowing cheaper and therefore taxes lower on the people who directly benefit from the spending. So what if the wealthy also benefit thereby? They should, and they do. For every bit of tax-free income the wealthy enjoy, someone somewhere has decent roads, schools and fire protection. It's not like the voters don't get to say No to such local spending. Property tax referenda are the meat and potatoes of local politics. 

This kind of cost-shifting was pretty much Romney's m/o in Massachusetts, where he made it almost an art form, increasing fees on businesses under the rubric of equalization, and on property tax payers of all kinds. Americans can probably expect the same from a President Romney, except on a much larger scale. It won't be spreading the wealth around to make people equal, it'll be spreading the taxation around, eliminating "loopholes".

Taxing interest gains from life insurance plans is a case in point. It will hurt any beneficiary of such plans, not just the rich. Think of a wife left with young children to raise, who will have just a little less left from her dead husband because she had to pay her fair share. And imagine having to pay tax on that life insurance when the buyer was counting on it to pay the taxes due on his estate so that his heirs wouldn't have to sell assets to do so. Talk about throwing a monkey wrench into the estate plans of countless millions.

Push here, and it comes out there.

Are Americans really going to vote for someone who is already getting bogged down in the weeds of tax loss expenditures? All Obama has to do in response to this is say Republicans are going to take away your tax deductions. This is not the way to sell the Republican brand.

As tax loss expenditures go, the two together add up to $90 billion annually in lost government revenue and benefit mostly the wealthy, according to an AEI source quoted in the editorial. Nevermind the $3.8 trillion we're already spending in this fiscal year is itself "lost government revenue".

Republicans ought to be saying every dollar spent by government is lost.

Don't hold your breath. 

David Stockman Misses An Opportunity: The Warfare State IS The Welfare State

The New York Times is only happy enough to run an op-ed from David Stockman, here, attacking the phony conservatism of the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan, in which he rather relishes pointing out, among other things, that when push came to shove Rep. Paul Ryan "folded like a lawn chair" and voted for TARP:


Thirty years of Republican apostasy — a once grand party’s embrace of the welfare state, the warfare state and the Wall Street-coddling bailout state — have crippled the engines of capitalism and buried us in debt. Mr. Ryan’s sonorous campaign rhetoric about shrinking Big Government and giving tax cuts to “job creators” (read: the top 2 percent) will do nothing to reverse the nation’s economic decline and arrest its fiscal collapse.

Mr. Ryan professes to be a defense hawk, though the true conservatives of modern times — Calvin Coolidge, Herbert C. Hoover, Robert A. Taft, Dwight D. Eisenhower, even Gerald R. Ford — would have had no use for the neoconconservative imperialism that the G.O.P. cobbled from policy salons run by Irving Kristol’s ex-Trotskyites three decades ago. These doctrines now saddle our bankrupt nation with a roughly $775 billion “defense” budget in a world where we have no advanced industrial state enemies and have been fired (appropriately) as the global policeman.

Mr. Stockman never once calls this Republicanism what it is. I suppose if he had the Times wouldn't have printed it. And I don't know how he really could since his family is allied with liberal social positions anyway. Paul Ryan isn't the only phony conservative liberal around.

But the truth is (someone's got to say it) the warfare state since Reagan is another consequence of liberalism, expressed as a failure of nerve with respect to conscription. Good wars are wars for which Americans more or less readily submit to the draft, fight successfully and end relatively quickly. They have the consent of the governed and are representative wars, conducted as they are by a cross-section of the population. Bad wars don't have the consent of the governed. And so these must emphasize among other things protecting warriors and civilians, not destroying the enemy's ability to make war, and are all too often fought to draws after protracted efforts. These cannot be conducted except with compliant volunteers, who come from more or less distinct sectors of American society: the South, and poor minorities. And these volunteers require enducements in addition to a commitment from government to their safety, such as citizenship, a college education, or a pension. As in the private sector, the military's single biggest cost is personnel, which explains perhaps more than anything the drive to mechanized war in a new form, the vanguard of which is drone technology. Can The Terminator be far behind?

The war in Afghanistan would be long over if we had destroyed its infrastructure, annihilated its people, and salted its poppy fields. But we couldn't do that. That would have been a war crime. And besides, where we would get our drugs then?

Liberalism, you see.


"Yet Reason frowns on war's unequal game,
Where wasted nations raise a single name,
And mortgaged states their grandsires' wreaths regret,
From age to age in everlasting debt;
Wreaths which at last the dear-bought right convey
To rust on medals, or on stones decay."

-- Samuel Johnson


Monday, August 13, 2012

Monetarist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Eats Keynes For Dinner, Austrians For Dessert

Frustratingly inconclusive and full of explanatory power at the same time, here:


Monetarists blame the ECB and the Fed for keeping money too tight in early to mid 2008, pushing a fragile credit system over the edge. They blame “pro-cyclical” regulators for aborting recovery ever since by forcing banks to raise asset ratios too fast. They are right on both counts.

Yet the `Austrian School’ is surely right as well to argue that a rise in debt ratios across the rich world from 167pc of GDP to 314pc in just thirty years was bound to end badly. There comes a point when extra debt draws down prosperity from the future. The future arrived in 2008.

How Would You Like A Monthly Mortgage Payment Of $72 Billion?

That's what it would take to pay off the total public debt of $16 trillion, financed at 3.5 percent, in 30 years: $25.920 trillion in total payments ($16 trillion principal/$9.92 trillion interest).

Got any collateral?

Notice The Subtle Anti-Reaganism Of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)

TARP Republican
Sen. Tom Coburn comes to bury Caesar, not to praise him, here:

"The last time Congress reformed the tax code was 26 years ago, which preceded the longest peacetime economic expansion in our history."

What's wrong with that? you say.

Well, that statement dates the longest peacetime economic expansion in our history from after 1986, ignoring that it actually began much earlier as a result of Reagan's stimulative tax cuts in the early 1980s. Now why would a Republican ignore that? Maybe because he's a Bush Republican who hates voodoo economics, the ungrateful louts who never defended the Gipper against the left's attacks then and still won't.

What's worse is that Sen. Coburn goes on to pretend that Reagan viewed tax credits with scorn like Martin Feldstein does:


Reagan’s key economic advisers such as Martin Feldstein persuasively argue that tax extenders are spending by another name. If tax carve-outs for green industry, rum makers, Eskimo whaling captains, and more, were on the other side of the ledger – such as in President Obama’s stimulus bill – they would be derided as spending, and rightly so.

Actually, Reagan defended spending through the tax code, for example, through the Earned Income Credit which he expanded considerably in the very 1986 tax reform Coburn praises, to get people off of welfare and into work.

Martin Feldstein may have been Reagan's economic advisor, but he was a deficit hawk who often collided with Reagan over spending, and left the service of the president after only two years, in 1984.

To rewrite the history of Ronald Reagan as Coburn does is completely dishonest.



Sunday, August 12, 2012

Obama's Enthusiasm For Bailouts Becomes National Socialism in Colorado Remarks

Obama views the GM auto bailout as an example of a successful government investment in the private sector, never mentioning, of course, that the success is at the expense of the former private investors in GM, its non-union elements, and of the tax-paying public. Without those, GM is still a failure, and should be again.

That Obama now says in Colorado that he wants to similarly rescue more companies, however, indicates that the bailout model was more to him than a one-off which he fortuitously inherited from the Republican establishment, an intellectually lazy cohort of Baby Boomers which long ago had betrayed free market principles. Obama's commitment to a model of government superintendence of private industry marks a new public face for an old familiar mixture of State and industry, the inspiration for which Herbert Hoover noted in his memoirs FDR had derived from Mussolini and the other strong men of Europe.

We all know what is the result of this type of thinking because we've already experienced it, not just in FDR's long failure, and not just in the recent auto company bailouts, but also in the rescue of the financial industry:

  • more moral hazard which has allowed so-called private banking players like the five or ten biggest banks to take even more unwarranted risks and grow ever larger and more too big to fail than ever, knowing the public purse is backing them up;
  • taxpayer-funded bailouts whose pain is never really felt by the taxpayers because, like most public spending, the bailouts are simply financed by more borrowing, which in their turn have only worsened the fiscal health of the nation and contributed to the loss of its once vaunted AAA rating;
  • corruption of elected public officials and bureaucrats whose crimes destroy the public's consent to be governed, as witnessed by the rise of protest movements like the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street, and by the capital strike by individual investors;
  • picking winners like multinational GE and Wall Street firms who reaped huge rewards in the form of tax breaks and bonuses because of their close relationship with government, and therefore by definition also picking losers on Main Street like small banks and entrepreneurs who can't beat the system because it is rigged against them, crushing confidence in "capitalism";
  • a complete repudiation of free market principles in which failure and bankruptcy become as unacceptable as saying "No" to the kids or as marking an "F" on a report card, unless for unrelated political reasons your industry happens to become a target for elimination, you know, like Chick-Fil-A, or the Roman Catholic Church in America.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Obama's remarks in Colorado is the way he is now touting his commitment to this model in explicitly nationalistic terms, emphasizing his as a patriotic concern for the American people to bring their jobs home, and Romney's as an unpatriotic intent to export those jobs.

Obama's socialism has been deemed a distraction by establishment Republicans, who find all the purported links between Obama and the communist left made by conservatives just a little too disturbing for polite conversation. It reminds them too much of the McCarthy era. But now explicitly linked to nationalism, Obama's remarks become an opportunity to refocus the conversation on the coincidence of these elements in fascism, which the left has hitherto succeeded in attacking and marginalizing as a phenomenon of the right, of conservatism.

Locating Obama in fascism actually makes better sense of his presidency to date. It explains the disillusionment of the left with him as a sell-out who has had the temerity to spend so much of his time enjoying himself instead of pushing their agenda, crafting policy to maximize campaign contributions from favored industries, and throwing his weight around as Commander In Chief. After one year progressives were already ridiculing his administration as a squandered presidency. And fascism also coheres with the interpretation of his experience in Chicago where he allied himself with financial, insurance and real estate interests and the Democrat Party to take over the property of the South Loop,  enrich themselves, and further their political careers. The president's friendship with Jeffrey Immelt is not a bug. It's a feature. 

The historical reality is that the fight between the communists and the fascists was always a fight on the common ground of socialism, rather like the fight between Democrats and Republicans has been a fight on the common ground of liberalism. The radicalization which occurred in the arguments between socialists culminating in the Second World War occurred because the conservatism of a prior monarchical age had completely lost its tempering force in society. The civilization of Europe was completely overcome from within by a capitulation to eschaton-immanentizing ideologies before it destroyed itself from without in war. In that process, liberalism was the vanguard softening up the enemy for the totalitarianism to come. Conservatism was beside the point then, but not here, not now.

In the arguments between Democrats and Republicans in our time, matters have not yet degenerated into such violence because the unique contributions of conservatism from the American Founding still inform much of the body politic. And the most important of those contributions, derived from human and religious experience both, has been the self-limiting conviction that human nature is not perfectible and always remains a mixture of good and evil which no rearrangement of human affairs can alter.  In the person of Barack Obama, however, we have met with someone who explicitly asserts otherwise, as an ideologue, that the union is perfectible. He deliberately goes out of his way to attack those individuals and institutions who know, believe and say otherwise. And armed with the imperial accoutrements gathered by his predecessors in the presidency, one might say that the people actually face for the first time a real and foreign threat in charge of the executive, a foreigner in his heart, mind, and affections who keeps his past sealed precisely because the revelation that he once presented himself as a foreigner for his own advantage even though he was born in Hawaii would offend more than actually being a foreigner.

Liberalism is defenseless against this because it drinks from the same cup of idealism. This is why it keeps quiet and doesn't look too deeply into President Obama. It is afraid it might see its own reflection. And this is also why a liberal like Mitt Romney can't bring himself to entertain Obama's socialism, let alone his national socialism. If it worked, he'd actually agree with it.

ABC News has the most recent formulations of Obama's national socialist vision here:

"When the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse, more than 1 million jobs at stake, Gov. Romney said, let’s ‘let Detroit go bankrupt.’ I said I believe in American workers, I believe in this American industry, and now the American auto industry has come roaring back and GM is number one again. So now, I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs, not just in the auto industry, but in every industry. I don’t want those jobs taking root in places like China. I want them taking root in places like Pueblo.  Gov. Romney brags about his private sector experience, but it was mostly investing in companies, some of which were called “pioneers” of outsourcing.  I don’t want to be a pioneer of outsourcing.  I want to in-source.  I want to stop giving tax breaks to companies that are shipping jobs overseas.” ...

"When the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse, 1 million jobs at stake, Mr. Romney said, ‘Let Detroit go bankrupt.’  I said, let’s bet on America’s workers.  And we got management and workers to come together, making better cars than ever. And now, GM is number one again and the American auto industry has come roaring back.   So now, I want to say what we did with the auto industry, we can do it in manufacturing across America.  Let’s make sure advanced, high-tech manufacturing jobs take root here, not in China.  Let’s have them here in Colorado.  And that means supporting investment here.”


Projected Unemployment Rate For August 12, 2014 Is 8.9 Percent

As calculated here:

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Conservatives Outnumber Liberals 2 To 1: If Only They Knew What That Meant

and sigmas aren't what they used to be at Cambridge

So Gallup, in January, here:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Political ideology in the U.S. held steady in 2011, with 40% of Americans continuing to describe their views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal. This marks the third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives.

In America you can be whatever you want to be, even if you're not what you say you are.

You know, like the Baptist preacher down the street who fancies himself a Greek scholar but misspells the English on his road sign.

Ryan Is No Conservative: He Voted For The Biggest Entitlement Program Since The 1960s

Rep. Paul Ryan, Republican from Wisconsin, Gov. Romney's VP nominee, is a huge friend of the welfare state and is no conservative.

Not only did he vote to bail out the banks and everyone else in 2008, in 2003 he voted for the largest expansion of government entitlement since the 1960s when he said "Yes" to Drugs For Seniors.

If he has any principles, they don't animate his votes when it's time to roll back liberalism. Instead, he rolls with liberalism when push comes to shove. Which is why Romney picked him. A man after his own heart he is.

Conservatives don't say "Yes" to Mitt Romney. Conservatives say what they said in South Carolina:

WE DESPISE MITT ROMNEY TO THE VERY CORE OF OUR BEING.

Scott Rasmussen Says Most Americans Think Both Parties Are Fascists

They just don't say it that way. Instead they call the two parties crony capitalists.

Here is Rasmussen for the Boston Herald:


[S]even out of 10 Americans believe government and big business work together against the rest of us.

In other words, Americans believe crony capitalism is a reality regardless of which party is in the White House. This is the root cause of much of the frustration sweeping the nation today. ...

[T]hey want the government to stop picking winners and losers in the business world.


Looking The Part

Don't Vote For The Fascists. It Only Encourages Them.

Three Tax Collectors For The Welfare State (And One Nincompoop)

US Public Debt Under Obama Has Soared Exactly 50 Percent In 43 Months





Friday, August 10, 2012

Romney Doesn't Oppose Obama's Financier Fascism, He's Part Of It

"[D]espite taking office in the midst of a massive financial meltdown, Obama’s administration has not prosecuted a single heavy-hitter among those responsible for the financial crisis. To the contrary, he’s staffed his team with big bankers and their allies. Under the Bush-Obama bailouts the big financial institutions have feasted like pigs at the trough, with the six largest banks borrowing almost a half trillion dollars from uncle Ben Bernanke’s printing press. In 2013 the top four banks controlled more than 40 percent of the credit markets in the top 10 states—up by 10 percentage points from 2009 and roughly twice their share in 2000. Meantime, small banks, usually the ones serving Main Street businesses, have taken the hit along with the rest of us with more than 300 folding since the passage of Dodd-Frank, the industry-approved bill to “reform” the industry. ...


"In a sane world, one would expect Republicans to run against this consolidation of power, that has taxpayers propping up banks that invest vast amounts in backing the campaigns of the lawmakers who levy those taxes. The party would appeal to grassroots capitalists, investors, small banks and their customers who feel excluded from the Washington-sanctioned insiders' game. The popular appeal is there. The Tea Party, of course, began as a response against TARP. ...


"Romney himself is so clueless as to be touting his strong fund-raising with big finance. His top contributors list reads something like a rogue’s gallery from the 2008 crash: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Citicorp, and Barclays."

Read the whole thing from Joel Kotkin, here.

Obama's Gangster Auto Tsar Admires China, The Largest Expression of Crony Capitalism In History

As pointed out by Joel Kotkin for The Daily Beast, here, who refrains from using the still radioactive term "fascist" in lieu of which the euphemism "crony capitalism" will still have to do:

Obama’s financial tsar on the GM bailout, Steven Rattner, took to The New York Times to stress that Obamians see nothing systemically wrong with the banking system we have now, blaming the 2008 market meltdown on “old-fashioned poor management.” ... 

Rattner ... paid $6.2 million and accepted a two-year ban on associating with any investment adviser or broker-dealer to settle with the SEC over the agency’s claims that he had played a role in a pay-to-play scheme involving a $50,000 contribution to the now-jailed politician who controlled New York State’s $125 billion pension fund. He’s also expressed unlimited admiration for the Chinese economic system, the largest expression of crony capitalism in history. Expect Rattner to be on hand in September, when Democrats gather in Charlotte, the nation’s second-largest banking city, inside the Bank of America Stadium to formally nominate Obama for a second term.

Relative to Gold, Oil is Still ON SALE

The gold to oil ratio stands at 17.44, meaning oil is "on sale" relative to the price of gold.

Low Tech Auto Security System

The Upper Limits Of Middle And Upper-Middle Individual Incomes 1990-2010

SocialSecurity.gov here provides comprehensive net compensation statistics going back to 1990, from which one can chart the nominal growth of individual incomes over the period.

Below I have charted both the nominal and CPI-adjusted growth in the upper income limits for middle incomes (60th percentile) and for upper middle incomes (80th percentile) between 1990 and 2010, choosing years where the income tranches ($5000 each) hit within less than 1 point of 60, or 80, percent of total earners. For the 80th percentile chart this meant stopping with the year 2007 because years after 2007 do not yet provide a clear demarcation of the 80th percentile for an income tranche within 1 point of 80 percent. For proper comparison purposes real growth in green for both is expressed in 2010 dollars.

What the charts show is that the income ceiling defining the upper limit of the middle rose over nineteen years in real terms 9.4 percent, and the ceiling for the upper middle rose over seventeen years in real terms 15.6 percent, a difference in the real rate of change of nearly 66 percent.

This is cause for much hand-wringing in some circles, where, it seems, it is rarely considered how the costs associated with acquiring the skills and credentials necessary to earn upper middle incomes have skyrocketed. Those costs have increased nearly 72 percent over the period, in real terms, consuming 70 percent of the upper-middle upper-limit salary of $50,000 in 1990 for the typical 4-year public university degree, and 104 percent of the comparable salary in 2007.